Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draymond Green | 4 | 26 | 37% | -20.8% | medium |
| Jusuf Nurkić | 3 | 23 | 38% | -18.7% | medium |
| Alperen Sengun | 4 | 20 | 67% | +15.9% | medium |
| Daniel Gafford | 2 | 15 | 44% |
Victor Wembanyama is still producing elite all-around numbers with season marks of 24.1 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, and 3.0 BPG, and his last-5 scoring has climbed to 27.8 PPG with 4.2 stocks. The matchup data points to caution on scoring: he has averaged just 18.33 PPG in 6 games vs this opponent, and the opponent defense shows a 111.36 defensive rating with negative scoring suppression. Home splits help, though, as he averages 27.3 PPG, 11.6 RPG, and 5.0 stocks at home, so the projection is strongest in rebounds and defensive stats rather than a pure points ceiling bet.
He has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate. The opponent context is still relevant: he has only 18.33 PPG in 6 games vs this team, and the defense metrics show a 111.36 defensive rating with scoring suppression.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victor Wembanyama▼ | Points | 31.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 34 | ✗ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | Rebounds | 12.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 2/2 | 70% | 12 | ✓ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | Blocks | 2.5 | OVER | 71%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | STL+BLK | 4.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 4 | ✗ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | Turnovers | 2.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 3 | ✓ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | PRA | 42.5 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 47 | ✗ |
Victor Wembanyama▼ | P+A | 29.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 35 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest numbers-based edge: his season average is 11.1 rebounds, the home mean is 11.6, and the value data shows a strong under position on 12.5 with a 0.742 our-prob-under and positive EV. Even with recent production near 10.7 rebounds per game, the line is still inflated relative to his baseline.
| low |
| Jaxson Hayes | 3 | 13 | 92% | +32.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oso Ighodaro | 3 | 13 | 11 | 56% | 56% |
| Mark Williams | 2 | 13 | 10 | 36% | 36% |
| Nick Richards | 1 | 2 | 6 | 100% | 100% |
| Jordan Goodwin | 3 | 2 | 9 | 100% | 150% |
| Jalen Green | 2 | 1 | 6 | 30% | 30% |
His season mean is 24.1 and vs this opponent he is only at 18.33 PPG across 6 games. The last-5 spike to 27.8 is still well below 31.5, and the opponent's scoring suppression makes the under the safer side.
He averages 11.1 RPG on the season and 11.93 RPG at home, but the line is still above both his season and recent means. Value data also supports the under, with a 0.742 our-prob-under on the 12.5 line.
His season assist average is 2.94 and the recent mean is 3.2, so 2.5 is below his typical production. This is not a high-confidence play because the assist standard deviation is 1.86, but the over has a modest edge in the value data.
He averages 1.94 threes per game on the season and 2.33 at home, so 1.5 is below his baseline. Recent volume is even stronger at 2.9 last-10, though the trend is volatile because the threes standard deviation is 1.9.
He averages 1.0 steal per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5 and last 10. A 0.5 line is far below his normal production, making this one of the cleaner overs.
He averages 3.0 blocks per game on the season and 3.6 over the last 10, so 2.5 is below his core expectation. The recent game logs show multiple 4+ block outings, supporting the over.
His season stocks average is 3.96, but the last-10 and last-20 are both 4.8, so he has been consistently above the season mark. This is a volatile combo stat, so confidence stays moderate.
He averages 2.1 turnovers per game on the last-20 and 2.3 over the last-10, which is right around this projected line. The recent spike to 2.2 in the last 5 keeps the over playable, but variance is high.
Using the season blend of 24.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists gives a profile below 42.5 unless he has a top-end scoring night. Combo props are high-variance, and his recent last-5 scoring surge does not fully outweigh the season baseline.
His season points plus assists are 27.03, and the recent trend has improved to 27.8 PPG with 3.4 APG. This is close to the line, so the over is acceptable but not strong.