AI Model:

Victor Wembanyama▼

SAS · C

PPG

24.1

RPG

11.1

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

27.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.7

24.1

27.8

RPG-0.7

11.1

10.4

APG+0.5

2.9

3.4

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG0.0

3.0

UNDER 31.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

31.5

BKN

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs BKN: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 25 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 38 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 27 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 29 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 39 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 32 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 18 pts

Over 31.5

Under 31.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 31.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

OVER 0.5

72%

BLK

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

STL+BLK

OVER 4.5

61%

OVER 2.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 42.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

P+A

OVER 29.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

27.3

21.4

RPG

11.6

10.7

APG

3.1

3.5

vs PHX (H2H)6 games

PPG

18.3

RPG

9.3

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Draymond Green	4	26	37%	-20.8%	medium
Jusuf Nurkić	3	23	38%	-18.7%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	20	67%	+15.9%	medium
Daniel Gafford	2	15	44%

Wembanyama’s ceiling is massive, but the best value leans to controlled, lower-variance overs and a few unders

Victor Wembanyama is still producing elite all-around numbers with season marks of 24.1 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, and 3.0 BPG, and his last-5 scoring has climbed to 27.8 PPG with 4.2 stocks. The matchup data points to caution on scoring: he has averaged just 18.33 PPG in 6 games vs this opponent, and the opponent defense shows a 111.36 defensive rating with negative scoring suppression. Home splits help, though, as he averages 27.3 PPG, 11.6 RPG, and 5.0 stocks at home, so the projection is strongest in rebounds and defensive stats rather than a pure points ceiling bet.

Stat Trends

PPG

27.8(↑ from 24.1)

RPG

10.4(→ from 11.1)

APG

3.4(↑ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate. The opponent context is still relevant: he has only 18.33 PPG in 6 games vs this team, and the defense metrics show a 111.36 defensive rating with scoring suppression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Victor Wembanyama▼	Points	31.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	34	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	Rebounds	12.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%	12	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	3	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	Blocks	2.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%	1	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	STL+BLK	4.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Victor Wembanyama▼	PRA	42.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	47	✗
Victor Wembanyama▼	P+A	29.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	35	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA39OVER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

PTS25.5UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK4UNDER52%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

3PA6UNDER48%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 6x9/2045%▼

P+A29.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

FTM4.5UNDER25%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA5.5UNDER1%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -4.0▼

R+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R38UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

REB12UNDER9%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST3UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER35%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

3PM2UNDER47%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Victor Wembanyama

Rebounds UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numbers-based edge: his season average is 11.1 rebounds, the home mean is 11.6, and the value data shows a strong under position on 12.5 with a 0.742 our-prob-under and positive EV. Even with recent production near 10.7 rebounds per game, the line is still inflated relative to his baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Oso Ighodaro	3	13	11	56%	56%
Mark Williams	2	13	10	36%	36%
Nick Richards	1	2	6	100%	100%
Jordan Goodwin	3	2	9	100%	150%
Jalen Green	2	1	6	30%	30%

pointsUNDER 31.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 24.1 and vs this opponent he is only at 18.33 PPG across 6 games. The last-5 spike to 27.8 is still well below 31.5, and the opponent's scoring suppression makes the under the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 12.574%HIGH

He averages 11.1 RPG on the season and 11.93 RPG at home, but the line is still above both his season and recent means. Value data also supports the under, with a 0.742 our-prob-under on the 12.5 line.

assistsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.94 and the recent mean is 3.2, so 2.5 is below his typical production. This is not a high-confidence play because the assist standard deviation is 1.86, but the over has a modest edge in the value data.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.94 threes per game on the season and 2.33 at home, so 1.5 is below his baseline. Recent volume is even stronger at 2.9 last-10, though the trend is volatile because the threes standard deviation is 1.9.

stealsOVER 0.572%HIGH

He averages 1.0 steal per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5 and last 10. A 0.5 line is far below his normal production, making this one of the cleaner overs.

blocksOVER 2.571%HIGH

He averages 3.0 blocks per game on the season and 3.6 over the last 10, so 2.5 is below his core expectation. The recent game logs show multiple 4+ block outings, supporting the over.

stocksOVER 4.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 3.96, but the last-10 and last-20 are both 4.8, so he has been consistently above the season mark. This is a volatile combo stat, so confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.1 turnovers per game on the last-20 and 2.3 over the last-10, which is right around this projected line. The recent spike to 2.2 in the last 5 keeps the over playable, but variance is high.

praUNDER 42.569%MEDIUM

Using the season blend of 24.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.9 assists gives a profile below 42.5 unless he has a top-end scoring night. Combo props are high-variance, and his recent last-5 scoring surge does not fully outweigh the season baseline.

paOVER 29.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists are 27.03, and the recent trend has improved to 27.8 PPG with 3.4 APG. This is close to the line, so the over is acceptable but not strong.

timelineUNDER 31.5 PTS