AI Model:

Royce O'Neale▼

PHX · PF

PPG

9.9

RPG

4.8

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

9.9

11.4

RPG-1.2

4.8

3.6

APG0.0

2.8

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

LAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAL: 13 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 3 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 11 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 3 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 21 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 6 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 9 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

54%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

51%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

OVER 1

52%

P+R

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

P+A

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.4

10.2

RPG

5.1

4.5

APG

2.2

2.5

vs SAS (H2H)15 games

PPG

8.7

RPG

5.4

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
John Collins	4	15	42%	-0.3%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	15	73%	+30.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	13	22%	-19.8%	medium
LeBron James	4	12	32%

Royce O'Neale’s role supports threes, but scoring looks capped

Royce O'Neale is averaging 9.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on the season, with his last 5 ticking up to 11.4 points but that comes with a shorter 27.2 MPG sample and a down overall trend. His last 10 and last 20 both sit below his season scoring level at 9.3 and 9.2 PPG, which suggests the recent spike is not fully stable. Against San Antonio, his head-to-head line is 8.666666666666666 PPG and 5.4 RPG across 15 games, while the Spurs profile shows a pace of 100 and scoring suppression of -0.821. The biggest caveat is his questionable left knee status, which adds risk to every over.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(↑ from 9.9)

RPG

3.6(↓ from 4.8)

APG

2.8(→ from 2.8)

3PM

2.9(↑ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, but Victor Wembanyama is noted at 12.7 minutes with 9 points allowed and a 0.3076923076923077 opponent field goal percentage. San Antonio's opponent profile also shows a pace of 100 and scoring suppression of -0.821, which leans slightly against ceiling outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Royce O'Neale▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Royce O'Neale▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Royce O'Neale▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Royce O'Neale▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Royce O'Neale▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Royce O'Neale▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	—	40%
Royce O'Neale▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%
Royce O'Neale▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	30%
Royce O'Neale▼	P+R	13.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Royce O'Neale▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS6.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER19%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.372; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

REB3.5OVER35%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+16.5% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.393▼

PRA11.5OVER12%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+12.6% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.322▼

P+R13UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

P+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Royce O'Neale

Points UNDER 8.5HIGH

The clearest edge is the points under at 8.5, since his season average is 9.9 but the last 10 and last 20 are only 9.3 and 9.2. Add in the questionable left knee tag and the matchup environment, and the under is the most dependable play on the card.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Harrison Barnes	3	10	5	40%	50%
Victor Wembanyama	2	7	6	33%	33%
Devin Vassell	3	4	4	40%	40%
Julian Champagnie	3	3	2	50%	50%
Keldon Johnson	3	3	10	57%	64%

pointsUNDER 8.562%MEDIUM

His season average is 9.9, but the more reliable recent windows are 9.3 over the last 10 and 9.2 over the last 20. With questionable knee status and a stronger under price at 8.5, the under is the safer side.

reboundsOVER 4.554%MEDIUM

He averages 4.8 rebounds for the season and 4.5 over the last 10, right on top of this line. The home/away split is neutral enough, but this is a low-margin play with moderate variance.

assistsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.8 and his last 5 is also 2.8, so 2.5 is slightly below his normal output. The away split at 3.21 APG also supports a modest over lean.

threesOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.75 made threes per game on the season and has hit 2.9 over the last 5. Since he clears 1.0+ comfortably, the 2.5 line is playable despite some volatility.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.1, which is below this 1.5 line. Even with a 1.2 mark in the last 5, the season baseline and the standard variance make the under preferable.

blocksOVER 0.551%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks per game on the season but 0.6 in both the last 5 and last 10. This is still a thin edge and should be treated as a low-confidence over.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.52 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, so the combined defensive playmaking is close to this range. The recent form is supportive, but the variance keeps confidence moderate.

turnoversOVER 152%MEDIUM

His recent game logs show multiple 1+ turnover outings, and his season topg sits at 1.1 in the data provided. This is not a strong edge, but the recent workload makes the over slightly more attractive than the under.

prUNDER 13.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds total is 14.74, but the more recent point trend has softened to 9.3 and his rebounds are only 4.5 over the last 10. With questionable status, the under gets a small edge.

paUNDER 11.561%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 12.71, but his last 10 points are down to 9.3 and assists sit at 2.6. The line is close, yet the recent downward scoring trend supports a cautious under.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS