AI Model:

Devin Booker—

PHX · SG

PPG

25.8

RPG

4.0

APG

5.9

L5 PPG

35.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+9.2

25.8

35.0

RPG+0.8

4.0

4.8

APG-1.7

5.9

4.2

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

25.5

SAS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs SAS: 5 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 27 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 32 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 30 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 27 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 43 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 31 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 40 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 34 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5BOVADA

63%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

UNDER 2.5BOVADA

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2.5

61%

P+A

OVER 29.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

P+R

OVER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

25.3

26.4

RPG

3.6

4.2

APG

6.7

4.5

vs SAS (H2H)16 games

PPG

25.5

RPG

4.3

APG

5.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Moses Moody	3	14	50%	-8.0%	medium
Christian Braun	2	12	81%	+29.5%	low
Keegan Murray	2	11	54%	+4.5%	low
Jaden McDaniels	2	11	67%

Booker’s scoring ceiling is high, but the number is tighter than it looks

Devin Booker is averaging 25.8 PPG, 5.9 APG, and 4.0 RPG on the season, with his last 5 games spiking to 35.0 PPG but also showing elevated turnover volume at 3.4 TOPG. His matchup history against San Antonio is solid at 25.5 PPG, 4.25 RPG, and 5.8125 APG across 16 games, which keeps him in a strong usage lane. The Spurs have a 111.76 defensive rating and a pace of 100, so this is not an extreme pace-up spot, and the season-long scoring baseline is a better guide than the recent hot streak. With his recent scoring running 20%+ above season average, some regression is reasonable, especially on the raw points market.

Stat Trends

PPG

35.0(↑ from 25.8)

APG

4.2(↓ from 5.9)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 4.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is provided beyond the Spurs list, so there is no specific defender matchup data to target. San Antonio’s team defense shows a 111.76 defensive rating and 100 pace, which suggests a neutral-to-modest environment rather than a major pace boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Devin Booker▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	22	✓
Devin Booker▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
Devin Booker▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✓
Devin Booker▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Devin Booker▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Devin Booker▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	4	✓
Devin Booker▼	P+A	29.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	27	✗
Devin Booker▼	P+R	26.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS24.5OVER2%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)13/1968%+16.0% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.380; Scorecard changed +4.0▼

P+R31.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)11/1958%▼

P+A33.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

3PM1.5OVER4%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x14/1974%+11.6% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

AST5.5UNDER15%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)11/1958%▼

PRA34.5UNDER13%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)11/1958%▼

REB3.5UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/1947%+5.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Devin Booker

Rebounds UNDER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest edge because Booker’s season rebound mean is 4.02, his last 10 is 4.2, and his away average is 4.31, all below the posted line. Unlike points, there is no need to price in a hot streak regression; the season profile already sits under 4.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Julian Champagnie	4	9	7	11%	17%
Devin Vassell	4	6	3	33%	50%
Harrison Barnes	3	6	2	50%	50%
Stephon Castle	2	4	9	75%	88%
Keldon Johnson	4	3	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 25.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 25.83, essentially equal to this line, while the recent 35.0 PPG is well above baseline and at risk of regression. The opponent history at 25.5 PPG also points to a near-fair line rather than a clear over.

reboundsUNDER 4.563%MEDIUM

Booker is averaging 4.02 RPG on the season and 4.2 RPG over the last 10, both below 4.5. His away rebound average is 4.31, still under the line, which makes the under the cleaner side.

assistsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

His season assist mean is 5.91, and even his recent 4.3 APG is still above 3.5. The home split of 6.75 APG and the matchup average of 5.8125 APG vs San Antonio both support getting past this low number.

threesUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

Booker averages 1.87 made threes per game this season, and 1.86 in away games, both below 2.5. Even though his last 5 is 2.6 FG3M per game, the season profile still leans under.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.15 and his last 20 is 0.9, which is below a 1.5 threshold. The recent uptick to 1.0 over the last 5 does not create enough margin for an over.

turnoversOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

Booker is at 3.1 TOPG over the last 10 and last 20, and 3.2 away, all above 2.5. His recent games also show multiple outings with 3+ turnovers, so this line is light.

paOVER 29.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 25.8 PPG and 5.9 APG, giving him a strong baseline above 29.5 when combined. The last 20 assist and point averages remain stable enough to keep this playable, though combo variance lowers confidence.

prOVER 26.556%MEDIUM

Adding his 25.8 points and 4.0 rebounds puts his season baseline right around 29.8, comfortably above 26.5. The line is still close enough to be affected by regression, but the margin is better than most combo options.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS