AI Model:

Julian Champagnie▲

SAS · SF

PPG

11.1

RPG

5.8

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

8.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

11.1

8.2

RPG-0.8

5.8

5.0

APG-0.5

1.5

1.0

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 3 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 16 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 20 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 8 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 7 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 17 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 1.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

P+R

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.3

11.2

RPG

5.4

4.6

APG

1.6

1.7

vs PHX (H2H)10 games

PPG

9.4

RPG

4.3

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	14	63%	+6.5%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	3	14	40%	-13.5%	medium
Jake LaRavia	4	13	50%	-3.5%	medium
Desmond Bane	2	11	54%

Champagnie’s scoring is cooling, but rebounds stay playable

Julian Champagnie’s season production sits at 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 27.6 minutes, but his last 5 has dipped to 8.2 points despite steady minutes at 27.2. The bigger trend is in the rolling sample: his last 10 and last 20 scoring marks are both near 10.1-10.2, which is closer to his true baseline than the recent cold stretch. This matchup comes with a low team pace of 100 and a Suns defense that shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed rotation, while his head-to-head against this opponent is only 9.4 points and 4.3 rebounds across 10 games. Given the sportsbook and value data, rebounds are the clearest angle while points and threes lean to the under.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.2(↓ from 11.1)

RPG

5.0(→ from 5.8)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.5)

3PM

1.6(↓ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 111.36 defensive rating, pace of 100, and no specific defender matchup data to isolate one primary stopper. The listed three-point suppression context and slower pace both work against an efficient scoring ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Julian Champagnie▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	14	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%	2	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	18	✗
Julian Champagnie▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	16	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A12.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+R16.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Julian Champagnie

Rebounds OVER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: season mean 5.8, last 10 at 5.7, and the value data shows a 18.3% edge on DraftKings with our_prob_over at 0.66. Unlike points or combo props, rebounds are supported by both baseline production and favorable model value.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Royce O'Neale	3	9	8	75%	100%
Jordan Goodwin	4	8	2	25%	25%
Collin Gillespie	4	7	18	75%	100%
Jalen Green	2	4	8	60%	60%
Dillon Brooks	1	4	10	50%	63%

pointsUNDER 11.564%MEDIUM

Season mean is 11.1, last 10 is 10.1, and last 5 is only 8.2, so the 11.5 line is slightly high. He has also averaged just 9.4 points in 10 games vs this opponent.

reboundsOVER 4.571%HIGH

His season mean is 5.8 rebounds and recent form is still solid at 5.7 over the last 10. The value data shows a strong edge on the over at 4.5, with our_prob_over 0.66 and edge_over 0.183 on DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.47 assists on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, which is right below the 1.5 line. The recent profile does not show meaningful assist growth.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

His season average of 2.4 threes and recent 2.2 are both close to the line, but the provided value data favors the under at 2.5. The matchup also includes a listed three-point suppression context.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and has 0.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is reachable. Confidence stays modest because steals are volatile and his recent std is 1.37 stocks.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.4 blocks and last 10 is also 0.4, so the under is supported at a 0.5 line. He is near, but still below, the threshold.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 stocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, both below 1.5. The category is high-variance, which keeps confidence moderate.

turnoversOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His recent turnover average is 1.4 over the last 5 and 1.1 over the last 10, so 1.5 is not far off his current range. The recent 2- and 3-turnover games show enough upside for the over.

praUNDER 15.561%MEDIUM

Using season means, his profile projects around 18.4 PRA, but the recent scoring dip and opponent history at 9.4 points make this less comfortable than the raw average suggests. Combo props are higher variance, so confidence stays capped.

prUNDER 14.562%MEDIUM

He averages 11.1 points and 5.8 rebounds, but the scoring trend has softened to 8.2 over the last 5. The 14.5 line asks for a stronger scoring night than recent form supports.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS