AI Model:

Jalen Green▼

PHX · SF

PPG

17.2

RPG

3.4

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

25.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.8

17.2

25.0

RPG+0.6

3.4

4.0

APG+1.2

2.6

3.8

SPG+0.2

1.2

1.4

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

LAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs LAL: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAC: 20 pts

CHI

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs CHI: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NOP: 25 pts

CHA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHA: 24 pts

MIL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIL: 25 pts

IND

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs IND: 36 pts

TOR

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs TOR: 34 pts

BOS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BOS: 21 pts

MIN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIN: 9 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

88%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5

64%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

84%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 31.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

P+A

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.3

18.9

RPG

3.7

3.1

APG

2.4

2.7

vs SAS (H2H)17 games

PPG

19.6

RPG

3.7

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Immanuel Quickley	2	8	29%	-13.9%	low
Brandon Miller	2	7	20%	-22.5%	low
Ousmane Dieng	2	6	33%	-9.2%	low
Sam Hauser	2	6	0%

Jalen Green’s recent surge is real, but the market has caught up

Jalen Green is averaging 17.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 2.6 APG on the season, but his last 5 games have jumped to 25.0 PPG and 3.8 APG with 32.4 MPG. That said, his last 20 games are still much closer to his season baseline at 16.6 PPG, and his trend is listed as down, which supports some regression caution. He has produced better away from home at 18.9 PPG compared to 14.3 PPG at home, and his matchup history vs this opponent is solid at 19.647058823529413 PPG across 17 games. The Spurs profile also shows a 111.76 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which does not strongly point to a track-meet scoring environment.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.0(↓ from 17.2)

RPG

4.0(→ from 3.4)

APG

3.8(↑ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

The available defender data is limited, so there is no specific defender matchup data to target beyond the Spurs team context. San Antonio’s defensive rating is 111.76 with a pace of 100, which suggests a neutral-to-slightly controlled environment rather than a major pace boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Green▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	17	✓
Jalen Green▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	2/2	100%	8	✓
Jalen Green▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	4	✓
Jalen Green▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✗
Jalen Green▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Jalen Green▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jalen Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Jalen Green▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
Jalen Green▼	PRA	31.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	29	✓
Jalen Green▼	P+A	23.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	21	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18.5OVER10%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+18.5% edge▼

PRA25.5OVER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x14/2070%+15.0% edge▼

P+R25OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A24.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM2.5UNDER17%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA7UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

REB4.5UNDER38%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER18%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER21%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

FTM2UNDER42%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

FTA2UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Green

Rebounds UNDER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest mismatch on the board: his season average is 3.4 rebounds and his last 5 is 4.0, both far below 8.5. The line is well above his normal range, and the value data strongly supports the under on rebound props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Vassell	2	5	11	80%	110%
Julian Champagnie	2	3	0	0%	0%
Jordan McLaughlin	2	3	0	0%	0%
Harrison Barnes	2	2	0	0%	0%
Keldon Johnson	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.2 PPG and his last 20 games are even lower at 16.6 PPG, so the 20.5 line is above the most stable baseline. The last 5 at 25.0 PPG is hot, but that is a big jump over season form and increases regression risk.

reboundsUNDER 8.588%HIGH

He averages only 3.4 RPG for the season and 3.9 RPG over the last 5, far below this line. The value data also strongly favors the under on rebounds across multiple books, and his rebounds std of 1.68 is not high enough to justify a number this inflated.

assistsUNDER 4.567%MEDIUM

Season assists are 2.6 APG and even the recent 2.9 APG is still well below 4.5. His recent uptick in playmaking is real, but the gap to the line is still large.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.33 threes per game on the season and 2.8 over the last 5, so 1.5 is a low bar relative to his volume. Even with some three-point volatility, his recent attempt rate remains strong at 3.4 fg3mpg over the last 5.

stealsOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, which supports clearing 0.5. His away split is also 1.4 spg, so the matchup context does not weaken this much.

blocksUNDER 0.584%HIGH

He averages only 0.1 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. This is far below a 0.5 line and should stay an under.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.33 and last 5 is 1.6, so this is close but still slightly above the baseline. Because stocks are volatile and his season std is 1.52, confidence should stay modest.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 3.0 over the last 10, with 2.6 in the last 5. That recent usage spike creates enough turnover risk to lean over 2.5.

praUNDER 31.569%MEDIUM

His season PRA from the provided averages is 23.2, and the last 20 profile still does not suggest a 31.5 true baseline. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the cleaner side here.

paUNDER 23.568%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his points plus assists come out to 19.8, and even the recent stretch is 28.8 only because of the hot scoring run. Given the regression warning and combo volatility, the under is preferable.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS