AI Model:

Stephon Castle▼

SAS · SG

PPG

16.4

RPG

5.0

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

17.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.4

16.4

17.8

RPG+2.0

5.0

7.0

APG+2.1

7.1

9.2

SPG-0.8

1.2

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 13 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 30 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 15 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 23 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 3 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 1.5

68%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

66%

P+A

OVER 23.5FANDUEL

57%

P+R

OVER 20.5FANDUEL

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.5

12.9

RPG

6.4

3.7

APG

7.4

7.2

vs PHX (H2H)5 games

PPG

17.6

RPG

4.8

APG

4.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	22	59%	-2.0%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	4	21	34%	-15.9%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	20	43%	-9.4%	medium
Cade Cunningham	2	17	30%

Castle’s home usage keeps him in play, but efficiency and volatility push toward safer unders

Stephon Castle is averaging 16.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.1 assists on the season while playing 29.6 minutes per game, and his home split is notably stronger at 19.5 points and 7.4 assists. His last 5 games show a mixed surge in playmaking — 17.8 points and 9.2 assists — but the overall trend is down, and his recent production has been volatile with a 3-point outing followed by a 23-point game. The matchup environment is neutral-to-slightly difficult: Phoenix has a 111.36 defensive rating and the opponent scoring suppression is listed at -0.913, which doesn’t create a clean smash spot. Given the over-bias warning and Castle’s variance, the market looks more attractive on a few selective unders than on aggressive overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.8(↑ from 16.4)

RPG

7.0(↑ from 5.0)

APG

9.2(↑ from 7.1)

Key Matchup

Phoenix has a 111.36 defensive rating and the opponent scoring suppression is -0.913, so this is not a clearly favorable scoring environment. Key defender data is present, but no specific defender matchup data can be used without guessing beyond the provided names and minutes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Stephon Castle▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Stephon Castle▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Stephon Castle▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Stephon Castle▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%
Stephon Castle▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Stephon Castle▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%
Stephon Castle▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Stephon Castle▼	P+R	20.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R22.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Stephon Castle

Assists OVER 6.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest volume-based angle because Castle averages 7.1 assists on the season, 8.5 over the last 10, and 7.34 at home. The line is sitting at 6.5 on major books, so even with variance, his passing role gives the over the best balance of floor and upside.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Booker	2	10	7	22%	22%
Collin Gillespie	2	3	0	0%	0%
Grayson Allen	1	2	9	60%	90%
Jordan Goodwin	2	2	2	100%	100%
Royce O'Neale	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.558%MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 16.4, essentially right below the 16.5 line, while his recent trend is mixed and the last 10 is only 15.7. Phoenix’s defensive profile and the over-bias warning make the under slightly more appealing than chasing a small uptick.

reboundsOVER 4.555%MEDIUM

Castle averages 5.0 rebounds on the season and 5.5 over the last 10, with a stronger 6.4 home split. The 4.5 line is modest, but his standard deviation is 2.77, so this stays only medium confidence.

assistsOVER 6.560%MEDIUM

He’s at 7.1 assists per game for the season, 8.5 over the last 10, and 7.34 at home, all above the 6.5 line. Even with variance, the assist volume is clearly meaningful and supported by recent usage.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

Castle averages 1.12 threes per game on the season and only 1.5 over the last 10, but his b2b mean is just 0.58 and his season three-point rate is modest at 31.4%. The 1.5 line is reachable, but the profile leans slightly under.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals on the season and only 0.6 over the last 10, which is well below the recent form needed to justify the over. The line is high relative to his current theft rate, so the under is the cleaner side.

blocksUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

Castle averages just 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. With limited rim-protection volume, the under is the logical play.

paOVER 23.557%MEDIUM

His season points + assists average is 23.5 exactly, and the last 10 jumps to 24.2. That makes the line fair, but his home split and recent assist boost give the over a slight edge.

prOVER 20.556%MEDIUM

Castle combines 16.4 points with 5.0 rebounds for a 21.4 season P+R baseline, and his home scoring/rebounding is stronger than his away production. The recent volatility keeps confidence moderate rather than strong.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS