AI Model:

De'Aaron Fox▼

SAS · PG

PPG

18.8

RPG

3.7

APG

6.3

L5 PPG

20.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.6

18.8

20.4

RPG+0.3

3.7

4.0

APG+0.5

6.3

6.8

SPG-0.2

1.2

1.0

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 7 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 11 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 29 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 20 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 25 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 27 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 18 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 15 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

REB

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

OVER 6.5BOVADA

61%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

72%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

83%

UNDER 2

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

54%

P+R

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.0

14.7

RPG

3.2

3.1

APG

7.2

6.0

vs PHX (H2H)19 games

PPG

24.1

RPG

4.6

APG

6.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Williams	4	18	55%	-2.9%	medium
Vince Williams Jr.	3	14	50%	-10.9%	medium
Collin Gillespie	3	13	61%	-4.0%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	12	67%

Fox’s assist and 3-point form creates value, but scoring is priced fairly

De'Aaron Fox is averaging 18.8 points, 6.3 assists, and 3.7 rebounds this season, with his last 5 rising to 20.4 points and 6.8 assists. His recent form is mixed overall, as the rolling trend is down from the last 20-game baseline of 17.4 points and 6.6 assists, but his home split is stronger at 20.0 points and 7.2 assists in 10 games. Against Phoenix specifically, he has averaged 24.105263157894736 points, 4.578947368421052 rebounds, and 6.2631578947368425 assists across 19 games, which supports a productive outing. The market looks more efficient on points than on assists or threes, where his recent and season numbers line up better with the available value.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.4(↑ from 18.8)

APG

6.8(↑ from 6.3)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 3.7)

3PM

2.0(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

The opponent profile shows a 111.36 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring suppression of -0.913, while the three suppression number is -1.522. Fox also has a strong 19-game history versus Phoenix, averaging 24.105263157894736 points and 6.2631578947368425 assists, which is the main matchup signal here.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Aaron Fox▼	Points	17.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	23	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	100%	7	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	1	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	90%	4	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	30	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	26	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25UNDER8%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS14.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST6UNDER23%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER38%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

FTM1UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

REB3UNDER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER43%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

De'Aaron Fox

Rebounds UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because Fox’s season rebound average is 3.7 and his home split is 3.25, both far below 6.5. The last 5 rebound average of 4.0 is not enough to offset that gap, so the UNDER is the most stable play on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Collin Gillespie	3	13	11	44%	61%
Devin Booker	3	5	9	67%	67%
Jordan Goodwin	3	4	9	57%	64%
Royce O'Neale	2	4	6	67%	100%
Jalen Green	2	3	4	100%	100%

pointsOVER 17.557%MEDIUM

Fox’s season mean is 18.8 points and his home mean is 19.21, both above 17.5. His last 5 at 20.4 points and his 19-game average of 24.105263157894736 versus Phoenix both support clearing this number.

reboundsUNDER 6.578%HIGH

He is averaging only 3.7 rebounds on the season and 3.25 at home, well below 6.5. Even with a 4.0 rebound last-5 mark, this is a large gap relative to his baseline and the variance is not enough to justify an OVER.

assistsOVER 6.561%MEDIUM

Fox is at 6.3 assists for the season, 6.8 over the last 5, and 7.2 at home. The matchup data also shows 6.2631578947368425 assists in 19 games versus Phoenix, keeping him close to or above this line.

threesOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.85 made threes per game and 1.8 over the last 10, with 1.86 at home. The recent game log includes multiple 3-plus make outings, and the line sits below his season and recent production.

stealsOVER 0.572%HIGH

Fox averages 1.2 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low threshold. His stocks average also stays healthy at 1.49, supporting defensive event volume.

blocksUNDER 0.583%HIGH

He averages just 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 10. That is below the 0.5 mark, making the UNDER the clear side.

turnoversUNDER 256%MEDIUM

Fox’s recent turnover rate is 1.6 over the last 5 and 1.5 over the last 10, which is below a 2.0 line. His season profile is still relatively controlled for a primary ball-handler.

stocksUNDER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season stocks mean is 1.49, which sits right around the threshold, but the last 10 is only 1.3 and the last 20 is 1.4. That makes the UNDER slightly preferable on a line around 1.5.

prUNDER 21.559%MEDIUM

Fox’s season points plus rebounds profile is 22.5 using the provided season means, but the recent scoring dip and rebound baseline push this close to fair value. Because combo props carry more variance, the UNDER is the more conservative lean at this price.

paUNDER 24.558%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists mean is 25.1, but the market line is elevated and the model’s value table does not show a positive edge here. Recent minutes and trend are steady, but not strong enough to justify chasing the OVER.

timelineOVER 17.5 PTS