AI Model:

Ausar Thompson—

DET · SF

PPG

10.0

RPG

5.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

7.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.8

10.0

7.2

RPG-1.2

5.8

4.6

APG-0.1

2.9

2.8

SPG-0.6

1.8

1.2

BPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

CHI

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs CHI: 8 pts

SAS

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs SAS: 8 pts

OKC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs OKC: 11 pts

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 6 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 10 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

61%

P+R

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

R+A

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.1

7.7

RPG

6.0

5.4

APG

3.4

vs GSW (H2H)5 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

5.2

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Payton Pritchard	4	25	54%	-16.4%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	16	61%	+5.0%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	14	63%	-2.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	2	13	45%

Defensive production stays strong, but scoring upside is capped

Ausar Thompson's season line of 10.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists shows a low-usage but versatile profile, with elite defensive numbers at 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. His recent scoring has cooled to 7.2 PPG over the last 5 and 9.0 over the last 10, which is below his season average and signals some regression on the scoring side. At home he has been better across the board than away, especially in rebounds (6.0 vs 5.4) and stocks (3.9 vs 2.9), but his recent minutes have stayed around 25, so the projection is more stable than explosive. The matchup data points to a tough defensive environment overall, and there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.2(↓ from 10.0)

RPG

4.6(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.8(→ from 2.9)

Stocks

2.2(↓ from 2.7)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.23, which points to a more difficult environment for raw production. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read should lean on the team-level defensive profile and Ausar's own recent usage.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ausar Thompson▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	8	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	3	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	4	✗
Ausar Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	7	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	8	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	11	✓
Ausar Thompson▼	R+A	9.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	7	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x8/1942%▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%▼

P+R15UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/1937%▼

PTS8UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

STL2UNDER30%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK1UNDER13%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)6/1932%▼

FTM0.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

PRA19OVER3%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

REB5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

AST4OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Ausar Thompson

Rebounds UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season rebound average is 5.8, his last 5 is 4.6, and the value data shows a 0.103 edge on the under at FanDuel. The line sits above both his season mean and his recent production, making the under the strongest bet on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Stephen Curry	1	5	12	67%	75%
Brandin Podziemski	2	4	0	0%	0%
De'Anthony Melton	2	3	2	25%	25%
Draymond Green	2	2	0	0%	0%
Al Horford	1	1	5	100%	125%

pointsUNDER 10.566%MEDIUM

His season scoring is 10.0 PPG, but the last 5 is only 7.2 and the last 10 is 9.0, both below this line. Recent game logs also show 10, 6, 4, 0, and 16 points, which makes 10.5 a fair but slightly high number.

reboundsUNDER 6.570%HIGH

He averages 5.8 rebounds for the season and 4.9 over the last 5, while the value data specifically shows a strong under lean on 6.5 with a 0.103 edge at FanDuel. His home mean of 6.23 is close, but the broader season and recent trend still point under.

assistsUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

Season assist average is 2.92, and the recent mean is 4.0, but that recent number is inflated versus the season base and the last 5 in the logs has been uneven. Given the over-bias warning and the variance in his assist profile, the under is the safer side at 3.5.

stealsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.8 steals per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 20, which is comfortably above 1.5. The recent sample is a bit lighter at 1.2 over the last 5, but the season and longer-window numbers still support the over.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 blocks and the last 10 is 1.1, so 0.5 is a low bar. The recent game log includes multiple 1+ block outings, which keeps this over in play despite some volatility.

stocksOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He combines 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks for 2.6 stocks per game seasonally, and 2.7 over the last 10. This is a meaningful defensive-production prop for him, though the recent 5-game dip keeps the confidence moderate.

prUNDER 16.568%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 15.8, and the last 5 scoring/rebounding form is softer at 11.8 combined from those two categories. With the line set above his season mean and recent output, the under is the better side.

raUNDER 9.564%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists, which totals 8.7 on the season, below 9.5. His home ra split is 9.7 in the provided sportsbook context, but the broader season profile still leans under.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS