Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Pritchard | 4 | 25 | 54% | -16.4% | medium |
| Jalen Johnson | 4 | 16 | 61% | +5.0% | medium |
| Desmond Bane | 4 | 14 | 63% | -2.1% | medium |
| Luka Dončić | 2 | 13 | 45% |
Ausar Thompson's season line of 10.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists shows a low-usage but versatile profile, with elite defensive numbers at 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. His recent scoring has cooled to 7.2 PPG over the last 5 and 9.0 over the last 10, which is below his season average and signals some regression on the scoring side. At home he has been better across the board than away, especially in rebounds (6.0 vs 5.4) and stocks (3.9 vs 2.9), but his recent minutes have stayed around 25, so the projection is more stable than explosive. The matchup data points to a tough defensive environment overall, and there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on.
Opponent defense data shows a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of -0.23, which points to a more difficult environment for raw production. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read should lean on the team-level defensive profile and Ausar's own recent usage.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ausar Thompson▼ | Points | 10.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 8 | ✓ |
Ausar Thompson▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
Ausar Thompson▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 4 | ✗ |
Ausar Thompson▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 7 | ✓ |
Ausar Thompson▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Ausar Thompson▼ | STL+BLK | 2.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 8 | ✓ |
Ausar Thompson▼ | P+R | 16.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 11 | ✓ |
Ausar Thompson▼ | R+A | 9.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 7 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season rebound average is 5.8, his last 5 is 4.6, and the value data shows a 0.103 edge on the under at FanDuel. The line sits above both his season mean and his recent production, making the under the strongest bet on the board.
| low |
| Deni Avdija | 2 | 12 | 71% | +14.6% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 1 | 5 | 12 | 67% | 75% |
| Brandin Podziemski | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| De'Anthony Melton | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
| Draymond Green | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Al Horford | 1 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
His season scoring is 10.0 PPG, but the last 5 is only 7.2 and the last 10 is 9.0, both below this line. Recent game logs also show 10, 6, 4, 0, and 16 points, which makes 10.5 a fair but slightly high number.
He averages 5.8 rebounds for the season and 4.9 over the last 5, while the value data specifically shows a strong under lean on 6.5 with a 0.103 edge at FanDuel. His home mean of 6.23 is close, but the broader season and recent trend still point under.
Season assist average is 2.92, and the recent mean is 4.0, but that recent number is inflated versus the season base and the last 5 in the logs has been uneven. Given the over-bias warning and the variance in his assist profile, the under is the safer side at 3.5.
He averages 1.8 steals per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 20, which is comfortably above 1.5. The recent sample is a bit lighter at 1.2 over the last 5, but the season and longer-window numbers still support the over.
His season average is 0.8 blocks and the last 10 is 1.1, so 0.5 is a low bar. The recent game log includes multiple 1+ block outings, which keeps this over in play despite some volatility.
He combines 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks for 2.6 stocks per game seasonally, and 2.7 over the last 10. This is a meaningful defensive-production prop for him, though the recent 5-game dip keeps the confidence moderate.
His season points plus rebounds baseline is 15.8, and the last 5 scoring/rebounding form is softer at 11.8 combined from those two categories. With the line set above his season mean and recent output, the under is the better side.
He averages 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists, which totals 8.7 on the season, below 9.5. His home ra split is 9.7 in the provided sportsbook context, but the broader season profile still leans under.