Warriors vs Pistons — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

GSW

Warriors

33-36 | L10: 2-8

DET

Pistons

50-19 | L10: 5-5

2026-03-20

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

GSW81%

19%DET

GSW80-103DET

Key Factors

*Warriors without Stephen Curry (26.9 PPG) - out ()
*Warriors without Jimmy Butler III (20.0 PPG) - out ()
*Warriors without Jonathan Kuminga (12.8 PPG) - out (Knee)
*Warriors without Moses Moody (11.9 PPG) - out (Wrist)
*Warriors without Quinten Post (7.9 PPG) - questionable (Foot)

Key Matchup

Pistons has matchup advantages

DET Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

GSW Players

Gary Payton II

Caris LeVert1g · 2m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Daniss Jenkins1g · 2m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Ausar Thompson1g · 1m+0.0%0% eFGlow

De'Anthony Melton

Daniss Jenkins2g · 4m+0.0%33% eFGlow

Cade Cunningham1g · 3m+0.0%88% eFGlow

The Pistons enter at 50-19 with a 2-game streak, while the Warriors are 33-36 and have gone 2-8 over their last 10. Detroit is at home on the second night of a light slate compared with Golden State resting two days, and both teams have played 4 games in the last 7 days. The biggest motivation angle is clear: Detroit has been far more consistent, while Golden State is trying to stop the slide.

Team Comparison

GSWDET

Key Players

Duren is surging with 24.8 PPG over his last 5 and 11.2 RPG over his last 5, well above his 19.0 season PPG. His prop market is elevated, but the recent scoring jump and 27.2 minutes over the last 5 keep his over angles live, especially around rebounds and points.

ProjectedPTS: 13.2-19.8-26.4REB: 7.8-10.8-13.8AST: 0-1.3-3.7

Thompson is below his 10.0 season PPG at 7.2 PPG over his last 5, while his last-10 points are 9.0. With 5.8 RPG season-long and strong defensive production, his value is more in rebounds or stocks than a scoring spike.

ProjectedPTS: 1.6-8.2-14.8REB: 2.3-5.3-8.3AST: 0.5-2.9-5.3

Robinson’s scoring has cooled to 11.2 PPG over his last 5 versus 11.8 for the season, and his last-10 mark is just 10.8 PPG. He still brings a strong 2.4 fg3mpg over the last 5, but his downward trend makes unders more attractive if the line is in the low teens.

ProjectedPTS: 4.1-10.7-17.3REB: 0.1-3.1-6.1AST: 0.1-2.5-4.9

Harris is trending up by usage and playmaking, with 3.6 APG over his last 5 compared with 2.3 season APG, even though his points have dipped to 11.4 PPG. His 28.3 season mpg and 29.4 recent minutes keep him in the mix for combo props, but the last-5 scoring dip should keep point overs in check.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Gui Santos▼ GSW	Points	12.5Proj	OVER	62%HIGH	90%	+6.6%	13	✓
Kristaps Porziņģis▼ GSW	Points	14.5Proj	OVER	58%MEDIUM	40%	+4.7%	5	✗
Gary Payton II▼ GSW	Points	10.5Proj	OVER	57%MEDIUM	80%	+1.6%	14	✓
Daniss Jenkins▼ DET	Assists	6.5draftkings	UNDER	86%HIGH	70%	+28.7%	8	✗
Kevin Huerter▼ DET	3PM	1.5Proj	OVER	58%MEDIUM	20%	+5.8%	—	—

Model Comparison

4 models · 17 props compared

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Props Shown

17 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Daniss Jenkins

Assists UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the strongest price on the board: 28.7% edge and 50.09 EV per $100 at DraftKings, with an adjusted mean of 3.3 against a 6.5 line. Even with 5.6 APG over his last 5, the season average is 3.1 APG and the market is too high.

Gui Santos

Points OVER 12.5HIGH

Gui Santos has a 6.6% edge and 12.97 EV per $100, with 17.0 PPG over his last 5 and a 14.1 adjusted mean. The recent minutes spike to 32.0 mpg makes the over viable despite volatility.

Kristaps Porziņģis

Points OVER 14.5MEDIUM

Porziņģis is at 17.4 PPG over his last 5 and 16.96 season mean, making 14.5 modestly beatable. The edge is 4.7% with 9.43 EV per $100, but his lower recent minutes keep confidence below the top play.

Parlay of the Game

Daniss Jenkins — Assists UNDER 6.5Leg 1

Gui Santos — Points OVER 12.5Leg 2

Kristaps Porziņģis — Points OVER 14.5Leg 3

These legs combine a strong under on a low-mean creator with two Warriors scoring overs that are supported by recent usage. The two Warrior overs are correlated through offensive production, while Jenkins’ under works independently as a leverage leg against a mispriced assist line.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Gilbert-based note: Kevin Huerter is questionable? No—Huerter is Available. The only clear injury absence in the provided data is Quinten Post, who is Out with Injury/Illness-RightFoot;InjuryManagement. Injuries for players without listed statuses should not be assumed.