AI Model:

Paul Reed▲

DET · C

PPG

6.7

RPG

4.4

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

7.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.7

6.7

7.4

RPG-1.0

4.4

3.4

APG-0.1

1.1

1.0

SPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

BPG+0.8

0.8

1.6

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

6.5

CLE

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs CLE: 4 pts

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 6 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 10 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 17 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5

58%

REB

UNDER 4.5

62%

AST

UNDER 1

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

OVER 0.5

59%

P+R

UNDER 10.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.4

10.8

RPG

4.4

4.7

APG

0.9

vs GSW (H2H)5 games

PPG

2.0

RPG

3.2

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	13	46%	-18.3%	low
Nikola Vučević	2	8	27%	-32.7%	low
Tristan Vukcevic	3	8	85%	+10.0%	medium
Adem Bona	3	7	100%

Reed’s production is steady, but the matchup keeps his ceiling in check

Paul Reed is averaging 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.1 assists on the season in just 12.9 minutes per game, with his recent form hovering near those levels overall. His last 5 show a small scoring bump to 7.4 PPG and strong shot-blocking at 1.6 BPG, but his last 10 and last 20 still point to a low-minute, volatile role. The matchup data is mixed: Detroit is at home where Reed averages 6.4 PPG and 4.4 RPG, while his vs_opponent sample against Golden State is only 2.0 PPG and 3.2 RPG across 5 games. With no major volume spike and modest minutes, the safer angle is to lean toward his lower-end outcomes.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.4(↑ from 6.7)

RPG

3.4(↓ from 4.4)

APG

1.0(→ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Golden State’s opponent profile shows a 114.35 defensive rating and a -0.23 scoring suppression mark, which is not a strong environment for upside. The only specific defender matchup data available is limited, so no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key_defenders can be assumed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Paul Reed▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	15	✗
Paul Reed▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✗
Paul Reed▼	Assists	1	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	3	✗
Paul Reed▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Paul Reed▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✓
Paul Reed▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Paul Reed▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA14OVER42%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+A11UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x5/1631%▼

PTS8.5OVER12%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼

FTM1UNDER13%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼

FTA1.5OVER3%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/1650%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x6/1638%▼

AST1OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/1638%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK1UNDER45%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x4/1625%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/1650%▼

REB5OVER23%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/1650%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Paul Reed

Rebounds UNDER 4.5MEDIUM

Reed’s season average is 4.4 rebounds, his last 5 is 3.4, and his last 10 is 4.1, all clustering around or below the 4.5 line. While his home split is 4.4 and his b2b number is higher, this game is not on a back-to-back, so the cleaner read is under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Draymond Green	1	1	0	0%	0%
Gui Santos	1	1	5	100%	125%
Brandin Podziemski	1	1	2	100%	100%
Gary Payton II	1	1	0	0%	0%
De'Anthony Melton	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.7 points, but the last 20 is 9.0 with only 14.8 mpg, and that recent scoring can overstate true baseline. The vs_opponent sample is only 2.0 PPG in 5 games, which supports a cautious UNDER at a near-even line.

reboundsUNDER 4.562%MEDIUM

Reed’s season mean is 4.4 rebounds and his last 5 is 3.4, which is below a 4.5 line. Even though his home mean is 4.4 and b2b mean is 6, this game is not a back-to-back, so the season baseline still points slightly down.

assistsUNDER 166%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 assists for the season, but his recent mean is only 0.4 and his away mean is 0.73. With a season_std of 1.51 and a low recent playmaking trend, the under is the more stable side.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

Reed averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, with 1.3 in the last 20. He has clear shot-blocking upside even in limited minutes, making 0.5 a reachable threshold.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season mean for stocks is 1.69 and his last 20 is 2.0, so he clears 1.5 often enough to consider the over. The variance is still meaningful, so this stays a medium-confidence play.

turnoversOVER 0.559%MEDIUM

He is at 0.8 turnovers in the last 10 and 0.8 over the season in recent logs, which makes 0.5 a modest hurdle. Recent games also show multiple outings with 1 or 2 turnovers, keeping the over in play.

prUNDER 10.560%MEDIUM

Combining his 6.7 points and 4.4 rebounds gives a season baseline of 11.1, but recent production is softer on rebounds and his role is only 12.9 mpg. Given combo volatility and the caution around combo props, the under is preferred.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS