AI Model:

De'Anthony Melton▼

GSW · SG

PPG

12.9

RPG

3.0

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

17.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.9

12.9

17.8

RPG+1.2

3.0

4.2

APG+0.2

2.4

2.6

SPG+0.2

1.6

1.8

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

BOS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BOS: 18 pts

DEN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DEN: 20 pts

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 28 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 23 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 27 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 5 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

55%

P+A

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

P+R

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.8

16.8

RPG

3.6

3.3

APG

3.5

2.3

vs DET (H2H)12 games

PPG

7.8

RPG

4.4

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	8	33%	-6.6%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	7	71%	+17.2%	low
Brandon Williams	2	7	43%	+3.0%	low
Collin Gillespie	3	6	0%

Melton’s recent scoring spike meets a tough regression spot

De'Anthony Melton is running hotter than his season baseline, with 17.8 PPG over the last 5 and 17.2 over the last 10 versus a 12.9 season average. Even so, the trend label is down and his game log shows volatility, including 5 points in his most recent outing after a 27-point game two nights earlier. Detroit’s defense data is not an elite scoring environment, but his head-to-head line is still much lower at 7.75 PPG across 12 games, which supports a more cautious projection than the recent stretch suggests.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.8(↓ from 12.9)

RPG

4.2(→ from 3.0)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.4)

STL

1.8(→ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

Detroit’s opponent defense data shows a 109.87 defensive rating with pace at 100, and no specific defender matchup data is provided. The head-to-head sample is notable because he has averaged only 7.75 points in 12 games against this opponent, which is a strong caution flag for overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Anthony Melton▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	2	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	60%	1	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST2.5OVER41%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PA6UNDER65%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 5x4/2020%▼

PRA20.5UNDER34%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R17OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1.5OVER11%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

FTM2UNDER45%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER9%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

De'Anthony Melton

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 12.9, the head-to-head average is 7.75 across 12 games, and the value data shows positive EV on the under at multiple books. His recent 17.8 PPG is hotter than baseline, but the most recent game was a 5-point outing, so regression is a real concern.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daniss Jenkins	2	4	4	33%	33%
Cade Cunningham	1	3	8	75%	88%
Duncan Robinson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Ausar Thompson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jaden Ivey	1	2	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.567%MEDIUM

Season mean is 12.9 and the value data shows UNDER edge at 14.5 with multiple books. His recent 17.8 PPG is well above season average, but the last game was only 5 points and his vs-opponent mark is 7.75 PPG across 12 games.

reboundsUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 rebounds for the season and 3.7 over the last 5, but the recent bump is modest relative to the line. The value table also favors UNDER at 3.5.

assistsUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

His season assist mean is 2.4, right below the line, and his away mean is only 2.0. Recent production is 2.5, but the edge data and his usual distribution both point slightly lower.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.51 made threes on the season, so this is essentially a coin flip, but the value data leans UNDER at 1.5. The under is also supported by a lower away mean of 1.25.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

Season steals are 1.6, but the line is inflated at 1.5 and his value props point to UNDER. With a season standard deviation of 1.28 in stocks-related production, this still carries some volatility.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages just 0.4 blocks per game, below the line, and there is no need to force an over on a low-frequency stat. The season profile supports the under.

stocksUNDER 355%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, steals plus blocks come out to 2.0, but this combo is volatile and his recent 2.6 last 5 is inflated by a small sample. Given the variance, this is a lean rather than a strong play.

paUNDER 16.559%MEDIUM

Points plus assists projects below this number based on 12.9 points and 2.4 assists season averages. Recent form is stronger, but combo props are higher-variance and should be treated conservatively.

prUNDER 17.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 15.92, and the last 5 surge does not fully justify the jump. The value data and head-to-head scoring history both support a lower projection.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS