Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Okoro | 4 | 17 | 0% | -44.8% | medium |
| Sam Merrill | 3 | 15 | 69% | +5.2% | medium |
| Tre Johnson | 3 | 14 | 64% | +12.3% | medium |
| Ben Sheppard | 3 | 13 | 14% |
Duncan Robinson is averaging 11.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.0 assists on the season, but his recent form has softened to 11.2 points over the last 5 and 10.8 over the last 10, with his trend marked down. His home split is stronger than his season baseline at 14.4 PPG and 3.4 threes made, but tonight’s matchup comes against a defense with a 114.35 rating and a 0.539 three suppression mark. With his recent minutes down to 24.7 in the last 10 vs 27.6 for the season, the projection looks more modest than the market’s higher point and combo lines.
The key matchup data available suggests no specific defender matchup data. Team defense inputs favor some caution, with a 114.35 defensive rating and a 0.539 three suppression figure that directly pressures his main scoring path.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Duncan Robinson▼ | Points | 11.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 11 | ✓ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 2 | ✓ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | Steals | 0.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | — | 70% | 2 | ✗ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 2 | ✗ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | Turnovers | 0.7 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | PRA | 17.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 14 | ✓ |
Duncan Robinson▼ | P+A | 14.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 13 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest fit between form and matchup: his recent 3PM rate is down to 1.9 over the last 5, below his 2.79 season mean. The opponent’s three suppression metric of 0.539 adds another layer of support, making the under more attractive than his point or combo markets.
| medium |
| RJ Barrett | 3 | 12 | 75% | +21.9% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Moody | 1 | 4 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| Brandin Podziemski | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| Buddy Hield | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Gui Santos | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Gary Payton II | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 11.8, but the last 10 is 10.8 and recent mean is 9.4, so the current 11.5 line is a bit rich. The value data also points to UNDER at this price.
He is at 2.7 rebounds for the season, 2.8 over the last 5, and 3.0 over the last 10, which supports a slight OVER lean. Variance is moderate, so confidence stays below strong.
Season assists are 2.0 and the market line of 2.5 sits above that baseline despite a 2.7 last-10 average. With over bias caution and a relatively high recent_std profile, UNDER is the safer side.
He averages 2.79 threes season-long, but recent output has dipped to 1.9 over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10. The opponent’s 0.539 three suppression strengthens the case against the over.
He averages only 0.6 steals on the season and 0.4 over the last 10, which keeps him below a reliable over profile. The low event rate makes the under the clearer side.
His season average is 0.3 blocks and he is at 0.4 over the last 10, still well short of a strong over case. This is a low-volume stat and the under is the preferred play.
He averages 0.9 stocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 20, which is below the 1.5 threshold. The recent trend does not support a spike in defensive counting stats.
His season turnover rate is 0.0? No, the provided logs show a low turnover profile with 0.6 last-10 and 0.7 last-20 averages, so the under is reasonable at a projected 0.7 line. Recent_games also show multiple zero-turnover outings.
His season PRA using the listed means is roughly 16.5, while recent scoring has cooled and minutes have eased. Combo props carry extra variance, so this stays an under lean rather than a high-confidence play.
Points plus assists is supported by his season profile, but the recent scoring dip and 2.0 season APG make 14.5 a little demanding. Given combo volatility, the under is safer.