AI Model:

Duncan Robinson▼

DET · SG

PPG

11.8

RPG

2.7

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

11.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.6

11.8

11.2

RPG+1.1

2.7

3.8

APG+1.2

2.0

3.2

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 8 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 15 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 3 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 15 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 19 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 14 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 1 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 14 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

STL

UNDER 0.5

71%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

69%

UNDER 0.7

60%

PRA

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

P+A

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.4

9.8

RPG

2.6

3.0

APG

3.2

2.0

vs GSW (H2H)8 games

PPG

12.4

RPG

2.3

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Isaac Okoro	4	17	0%	-44.8%	medium
Sam Merrill	3	15	69%	+5.2%	medium
Tre Johnson	3	14	64%	+12.3%	medium
Ben Sheppard	3	13	14%

Duncan Robinson’s scoring and 3-point volume lean slightly to the under

Duncan Robinson is averaging 11.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.0 assists on the season, but his recent form has softened to 11.2 points over the last 5 and 10.8 over the last 10, with his trend marked down. His home split is stronger than his season baseline at 14.4 PPG and 3.4 threes made, but tonight’s matchup comes against a defense with a 114.35 rating and a 0.539 three suppression mark. With his recent minutes down to 24.7 in the last 10 vs 27.6 for the season, the projection looks more modest than the market’s higher point and combo lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.2(↓ from 11.8)

RPG

3.8(↑ from 2.7)

APG

3.2(↑ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

The key matchup data available suggests no specific defender matchup data. Team defense inputs favor some caution, with a 114.35 defensive rating and a 0.539 three suppression figure that directly pressures his main scoring path.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Duncan Robinson▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	2	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	70%	2	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	90%	2	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Turnovers	0.7	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

REB3UNDER43%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)4/2020%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

FTM0.5UNDER20%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTA0.5UNDER3%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

PRA15OVER38%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST2OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

3PA6OVER1%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PM2.5OVER8%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Duncan Robinson

Threes UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest fit between form and matchup: his recent 3PM rate is down to 1.9 over the last 5, below his 2.79 season mean. The opponent’s three suppression metric of 0.539 adds another layer of support, making the under more attractive than his point or combo markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Moses Moody	1	4	3	33%	50%
Brandin Podziemski	2	3	1	0%	0%
Buddy Hield	1	2	0	0%	0%
Gui Santos	2	2	2	0%	0%
Gary Payton II	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.8, but the last 10 is 10.8 and recent mean is 9.4, so the current 11.5 line is a bit rich. The value data also points to UNDER at this price.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He is at 2.7 rebounds for the season, 2.8 over the last 5, and 3.0 over the last 10, which supports a slight OVER lean. Variance is moderate, so confidence stays below strong.

assistsUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

Season assists are 2.0 and the market line of 2.5 sits above that baseline despite a 2.7 last-10 average. With over bias caution and a relatively high recent_std profile, UNDER is the safer side.

threesUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

He averages 2.79 threes season-long, but recent output has dipped to 1.9 over the last 5 and 2.3 over the last 10. The opponent’s 0.539 three suppression strengthens the case against the over.

stealsUNDER 0.571%HIGH

He averages only 0.6 steals on the season and 0.4 over the last 10, which keeps him below a reliable over profile. The low event rate makes the under the clearer side.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

His season average is 0.3 blocks and he is at 0.4 over the last 10, still well short of a strong over case. This is a low-volume stat and the under is the preferred play.

stocksUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 stocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 20, which is below the 1.5 threshold. The recent trend does not support a spike in defensive counting stats.

turnoversUNDER 0.760%MEDIUM

His season turnover rate is 0.0? No, the provided logs show a low turnover profile with 0.6 last-10 and 0.7 last-20 averages, so the under is reasonable at a projected 0.7 line. Recent_games also show multiple zero-turnover outings.

praUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

His season PRA using the listed means is roughly 16.5, while recent scoring has cooled and minutes have eased. Combo props carry extra variance, so this stays an under lean rather than a high-confidence play.

paUNDER 14.559%MEDIUM

Points plus assists is supported by his season profile, but the recent scoring dip and 2.0 season APG make 14.5 a little demanding. Given combo volatility, the under is safer.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS