Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | 4 | 29 | 31% | -16.7% | medium |
| Brandon Ingram | 3 | 14 | 57% | +6.9% | medium |
| Miles Bridges | 2 | 13 | 28% | -24.2% | low |
| Jalen Johnson | 3 | 12 | 47% |
Tobias Harris is trending up overall, with his last 10 at 13.7 PPG compared to 13.2 on the season, while his recent minutes have held near 29.4. The matchup context is favorable enough for production, as he has averaged 18.25 PPG and 8.625 RPG in 8 games vs this opponent, but the current scoring market is close to his season level and recent form has been uneven. His last 5 dipped to 11.4 PPG, and with the matchup pace at 100 plus three suppression of -0.539, the upside is there but not enough to force overs across the board. Given the variance in his combo lines and the over-bias warning, the cleaner angle is to lean under on the biggest number and stay selective elsewhere.
He has produced well in 8 games vs this opponent, but the listed opponent defense includes a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and three suppression of -0.539. For individual defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed names and minutes.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tobias Harris▼ | Points | 13.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 13 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 6 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 5 | ✗ |
Tobias Harris▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 1 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Tobias Harris▼ | PRA | 23.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 24 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest number relative to his season profile: 5.2 RPG on the year, 5.0 over the last 5, and 5.2 over the last 10. The market at 6.5 is well above his baseline, and the combo of moderate variance plus a conservative prop profile makes the under the strongest position.
| medium |
| Paolo Banchero | 2 | 11 | 22% | -24.2% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | 2 | 7 | 11 | 67% | 75% |
| Al Horford | 1 | 5 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Gary Payton II | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| De'Anthony Melton | 2 | 1 | 7 | 60% | 70% |
| Brandin Podziemski | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 13.2 and last 5 is 11.4, so 13.5 sits slightly above both recent baselines. The opponent history is strong at 18.25 PPG in 8 games, but recent inconsistency and the over-bias warning keep this from being an over lean.
He averages 5.2 rebounds on the season and 5.0 over the last 5, both below 6.5. Even though he has 8 games of opponent history at 8.625 RPG, the current market is still above his usual output.
His season assist average is 2.3 and last 5 is 3.6, but that recent spike is not enough to ignore the season baseline. With a 1.52 season std and only moderate role consistency, this is a better avoid than an over.
He averages 1.27 made threes on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 1.5 is slightly high relative to his normal rate. The value sheet also flags 1.5 as an OVER at some books, but the season mean still supports caution.
His season steals average is 0.9, which clears 0.5, and his recent defensive activity has remained usable despite a 0.2 last-5 dip. The line is low enough that one steal cashes the over.
His season stocks average is 1.25 and last 20 is 1.4, so 1.5 is a touch above his typical combined defensive production. With blocks and steals both volatile, the under is the more conservative side.
Season averages sum to 20.7 PRA using 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, which is below 23.5. Combo props carry extra variance, and his recent scoring dip makes the over hard to justify.