AI Model:

Tobias Harris▲

DET · PF

PPG

13.2

RPG

5.2

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.8

13.2

11.4

RPG-0.2

5.2

5.0

APG+1.3

2.3

3.6

SPG-0.7

0.9

0.2

BPG+0.5

0.3

0.8

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 23 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 9 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 21 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 7 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

PRA

UNDER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.1

13.0

RPG

6.2

5.8

APG

2.1

vs GSW (H2H)8 games

PPG

18.3

RPG

8.6

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Brown	4	29	31%	-16.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	14	57%	+6.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	13	28%	-24.2%	low
Jalen Johnson	3	12	47%

Tobias Harris faces a solid scoring spot, but combo props look safer to fade

Tobias Harris is trending up overall, with his last 10 at 13.7 PPG compared to 13.2 on the season, while his recent minutes have held near 29.4. The matchup context is favorable enough for production, as he has averaged 18.25 PPG and 8.625 RPG in 8 games vs this opponent, but the current scoring market is close to his season level and recent form has been uneven. His last 5 dipped to 11.4 PPG, and with the matchup pace at 100 plus three suppression of -0.539, the upside is there but not enough to force overs across the board. Given the variance in his combo lines and the over-bias warning, the cleaner angle is to lean under on the biggest number and stay selective elsewhere.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(↓ from 13.2)

RPG

5.0(→ from 5.2)

APG

3.6(↑ from 2.3)

Stocks

1.0(→ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

He has produced well in 8 games vs this opponent, but the listed opponent defense includes a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and three suppression of -0.539. For individual defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed names and minutes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tobias Harris▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	13	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✗
Tobias Harris▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Tobias Harris▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Tobias Harris▼	PRA	23.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	24	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA24UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)8/1942%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+A17OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 7x12/1963%▼

3PA3UNDER22%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x5/1926%▼

P+R19OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

REB5OVER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

AST3OVER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)8/1942%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

PTS13UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER6%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x5/1926%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

FTM2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER2%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x9/1947%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Tobias Harris

Rebounds UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his season profile: 5.2 RPG on the year, 5.0 over the last 5, and 5.2 over the last 10. The market at 6.5 is well above his baseline, and the combo of moderate variance plus a conservative prop profile makes the under the strongest position.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Gui Santos	2	7	11	67%	75%
Al Horford	1	5	4	67%	67%
Gary Payton II	1	2	0	0%	0%
De'Anthony Melton	2	1	7	60%	70%
Brandin Podziemski	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.2 and last 5 is 11.4, so 13.5 sits slightly above both recent baselines. The opponent history is strong at 18.25 PPG in 8 games, but recent inconsistency and the over-bias warning keep this from being an over lean.

reboundsUNDER 6.567%MEDIUM

He averages 5.2 rebounds on the season and 5.0 over the last 5, both below 6.5. Even though he has 8 games of opponent history at 8.625 RPG, the current market is still above his usual output.

assistsUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 2.3 and last 5 is 3.6, but that recent spike is not enough to ignore the season baseline. With a 1.52 season std and only moderate role consistency, this is a better avoid than an over.

threesUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.27 made threes on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 1.5 is slightly high relative to his normal rate. The value sheet also flags 1.5 as an OVER at some books, but the season mean still supports caution.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.9, which clears 0.5, and his recent defensive activity has remained usable despite a 0.2 last-5 dip. The line is low enough that one steal cashes the over.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.25 and last 20 is 1.4, so 1.5 is a touch above his typical combined defensive production. With blocks and steals both volatile, the under is the more conservative side.

praUNDER 23.560%MEDIUM

Season averages sum to 20.7 PRA using 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, which is below 23.5. Combo props carry extra variance, and his recent scoring dip makes the over hard to justify.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS