Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 4 | 22 | 33% | -8.5% | medium |
| Tre Jones | 3 | 12 | 50% | +8.2% | medium |
| Tyrese Maxey | 2 | 11 | 27% | -18.7% | low |
| CJ McCollum | 2 | 10 | 77% |
Daniss Jenkins is coming off a stronger stretch, with his last 5 games at 9.6 PPG and 5.6 APG versus season marks of 7.7 PPG and 3.1 APG, but the production has been tied to heavier minutes rather than a true leap. At home he’s been better than away, averaging 9.1 points and 2.7 assists in 20.3 MPG, and his only prior game vs this opponent was 12 points and 4 assists in 17 MPG. The books have pushed his points and assists lines well above his season baseline, while opponent three suppression of -0.539 also makes his outside scoring less appealing.
The opponent data shows a defensive rating of 114.35, pace of 100, scoring suppression of -0.23, and three suppression of -0.539. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the clearest read is that perimeter scoring is less attractive than the raw recent form suggests.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Points | 13.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 22 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Rebounds | 1.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 7 | ✓ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Assists | 6.5 | UNDER | 86%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 8 | ✗ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Daniss Jenkins▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his season 3.1 APG and last-10 4.1 APG. Even with a recent uptick, the market is pricing him far above his baseline, and the value data repeatedly flags the under with strong positive EV.
| low |
| Craig Porter Jr. | 3 | 9 | 0% | -41.8% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Anthony Melton | 2 | 3 | 7 | 50% | 58% |
| Brandin Podziemski | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Gary Payton II | 1 | 2 | 6 | 100% | 100% |
| Moses Moody | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Gui Santos | 2 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
His season average is 7.7 PPG and even his last 10 is only 7.0, well below a 13.5 line. The recent spike to 9.6 over the last 5 is not enough to justify the inflated market, especially with opponent three suppression also weighing on scoring upside.
He averages 1.9 rebounds on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a modest bar. Home split is 2.6 RPG, which supports clearing a low rebound line.
Season assist average is 3.1 and even the recent 5-game stretch at 5.6 is still short of 6.5. His value data also points strongly to the under, with an adjusted mean of 3.3 and the under showing positive edge across books.
He averages only 0.86 threes per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so 1.5 requires an efficient shooting night. The matchup data shows opponent three suppression of -0.539, which further lowers over appeal.
He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The recent games show multiple 2-steal outings, giving this a decent floor despite the volatility.