AI Model:

Daniss Jenkins▲

DET · PG

PPG

7.7

RPG

1.9

APG

3.1

L5 PPG

9.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.9

7.7

9.6

RPG+0.7

1.9

2.6

APG+2.5

3.1

5.6

SPG+0.9

0.9

1.8

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

ORL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ORL: 2 pts

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 0 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 11 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 4 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 14 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 15 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 9 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5BETMGM

82%

REB

OVER 1.5STAKE

68%

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

86%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.1

6.5

RPG

2.6

1.8

APG

2.7

2.5

vs GSW (H2H)1 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

2.0

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	4	22	33%	-8.5%	medium
Tre Jones	3	12	50%	+8.2%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	2	11	27%	-18.7%	low
CJ McCollum	2	10	77%

Home usage is up, but the market is still too high on Jenkins

Daniss Jenkins is coming off a stronger stretch, with his last 5 games at 9.6 PPG and 5.6 APG versus season marks of 7.7 PPG and 3.1 APG, but the production has been tied to heavier minutes rather than a true leap. At home he’s been better than away, averaging 9.1 points and 2.7 assists in 20.3 MPG, and his only prior game vs this opponent was 12 points and 4 assists in 17 MPG. The books have pushed his points and assists lines well above his season baseline, while opponent three suppression of -0.539 also makes his outside scoring less appealing.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.6(↑ from 7.7)

APG

5.6(↑ from 3.1)

RPG

2.6(↑ from 1.9)

3PM

0.6(↓ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a defensive rating of 114.35, pace of 100, scoring suppression of -0.23, and three suppression of -0.539. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the clearest read is that perimeter scoring is less attractive than the raw recent form suggests.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Daniss Jenkins▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	80%	22	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	Rebounds	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✓
Daniss Jenkins▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	1/2	70%	8	✗
Daniss Jenkins▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	80%	1	✓
Daniss Jenkins▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PA2.5OVER8%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA3OVER15%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A19.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 5x12/2060%▼

PRA24.5OVER26%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 10x10/2050%▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

P+R16.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 10x12/2060%▼

PTS14.5OVER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 5x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

AST6.5OVER20%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PM1OVER22%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

FTM2.5UNDER6%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

REB3OVER37%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

STL1UNDER17%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Daniss Jenkins

Assists UNDER 6.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his season 3.1 APG and last-10 4.1 APG. Even with a recent uptick, the market is pricing him far above his baseline, and the value data repeatedly flags the under with strong positive EV.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
De'Anthony Melton	2	3	7	50%	58%
Brandin Podziemski	2	2	2	100%	100%
Gary Payton II	1	2	6	100%	100%
Moses Moody	1	2	0	0%	0%
Gui Santos	2	1	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 13.582%HIGH

His season average is 7.7 PPG and even his last 10 is only 7.0, well below a 13.5 line. The recent spike to 9.6 over the last 5 is not enough to justify the inflated market, especially with opponent three suppression also weighing on scoring upside.

reboundsOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 rebounds on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, so 1.5 is a modest bar. Home split is 2.6 RPG, which supports clearing a low rebound line.

assistsUNDER 6.586%HIGH

Season assist average is 3.1 and even the recent 5-game stretch at 5.6 is still short of 6.5. His value data also points strongly to the under, with an adjusted mean of 3.3 and the under showing positive edge across books.

threesUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages only 0.86 threes per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so 1.5 requires an efficient shooting night. The matchup data shows opponent three suppression of -0.539, which further lowers over appeal.

stealsOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The recent games show multiple 2-steal outings, giving this a decent floor despite the volatility.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS