Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | 4 | 8 | 46% | -7.7% | medium |
| Amen Thompson | 2 | 6 | 50% | -0.6% | low |
| Rudy Gobert | 4 | 6 | 80% | +29.4% | medium |
| Naz Reid | 4 | 6 | 75% |
Gui Santos' season line is modest at 8.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 2.1 APG over 57 games, but his last 5 and last 10 have exploded to 17.0 PPG/4.8 RPG/4.2 APG and 15.5 PPG/6.3 RPG/4.0 APG respectively. That surge is backed by a big minutes jump from 19.0 season MPG to 32.0 in the last 5 and 33.0 in the last 10, yet his recent scoring is still well above his season baseline, so some pullback is possible. Detroit’s defensive profile is workable, with a 109.87 defensive rating and no specific defender matchup data, while Santos has also posted 14.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.7 APG across 3 games vs this opponent. The cleanest angle is to stay close to the book’s numbers and lean under on the more inflated recent-pricing props rather than chasing the hot streak.
Detroit’s defense has a 109.87 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which is not an extreme suppression spot, but there is no specific defender matchup data to sharpen the read. In 3 games vs this opponent, Gui Santos has averaged 14.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, which is solid but not enough to fully justify the higher recent lines.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gui Santos▼ | Points | 13.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 20% | 13 | ✓ |
Gui Santos▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 5 | ✓ |
Gui Santos▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 5 | ✓ |
Gui Santos▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 40% | 1 | ✓ |
Gui Santos▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Gui Santos▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Gui Santos▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 0 | ✓ |
Gui Santos▼ | P+A | 15.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 20% | 18 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest under on the board because the season mean is 1.11 made threes, the away mean is 1.03, and the adjusted mean in value data is 1.3. The recent surge to 1.8 over the last 10 is exactly the kind of overextension that can regress, and the 1.5 line is still above his normal output.
| medium |
| Christian Braun | 3 | 6 | 25% | -25.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris | 1 | 3 | 4 | 25% | 25% |
| Isaiah Stewart | 1 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Daniss Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 7 | 60% | 70% |
| Ausar Thompson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Duncan Robinson | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
The season mean is 8.21 points and the recent mean is 15.5, but that recent number is far above season baseline and suggests regression risk. DraftKings at 13.5 is still elevated relative to his season form, especially with no guarantee the last-5 minutes load repeats.
He averages 3.75 rebounds on the season and 4.5 away, below the 5.5 line. The last 10 at 6.3 is hot, but the prop metrics show a 3.03 season standard deviation, so the under remains playable.
His season mean is 2.14 assists and his last 10 is 4.0, with away mean at 2.3 and recent minutes at 33.0. This is the strongest volume-based over, though the confidence stays modest because the assist distribution is volatile.
He averages 1.11 threes on the season and 1.03 away, both below a 1.5 line. Even with a recent 1.8 last-10 average, the adjusted mean in value data is 1.3, which supports the under.
Season steals are 0.8 per game and last 10 jumps to 1.2, so a 0.5 line is reachable. The recent form and 1.4 stocks in the last 10 support at least one defensive event.
He averages only 0.3 blocks on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. Even with a few multi-category games, 0.5 is above his typical block production.
His combined season average for steals plus blocks is 1.1, which sits below 1.5. The recent run has improved, but the season baseline still points to the under.
Using season means, points plus assists totals 10.3, far below this combo line. Recent production is strong, but combo props carry extra variance and this number is inflated off the hot stretch.