AI Model:

Gui Santos—

GSW · SF

PPG

8.2

RPG

3.8

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

17.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.8

8.2

17.0

RPG+1.0

3.8

4.8

APG+2.1

2.1

4.2

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 5 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 14 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 15 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 17 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 17 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 13 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

STL

OVER 0.5

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.1

16.7

RPG

4.9

6.8

APG

3.5

4.4

vs DET (H2H)3 games

PPG

14.7

RPG

4.0

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Julius Randle	4	8	46%	-7.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	6	50%	-0.6%	low
Rudy Gobert	4	6	80%	+29.4%	medium
Naz Reid	4	6	75%

Gui Santos is riding a real usage spike, but the books still price in some regression

Gui Santos' season line is modest at 8.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 2.1 APG over 57 games, but his last 5 and last 10 have exploded to 17.0 PPG/4.8 RPG/4.2 APG and 15.5 PPG/6.3 RPG/4.0 APG respectively. That surge is backed by a big minutes jump from 19.0 season MPG to 32.0 in the last 5 and 33.0 in the last 10, yet his recent scoring is still well above his season baseline, so some pullback is possible. Detroit’s defensive profile is workable, with a 109.87 defensive rating and no specific defender matchup data, while Santos has also posted 14.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.7 APG across 3 games vs this opponent. The cleanest angle is to stay close to the book’s numbers and lean under on the more inflated recent-pricing props rather than chasing the hot streak.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.0(↑ from 8.2)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 3.8)

APG

4.2(↑ from 2.1)

Stocks

1.0(→ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Detroit’s defense has a 109.87 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which is not an extreme suppression spot, but there is no specific defender matchup data to sharpen the read. In 3 games vs this opponent, Gui Santos has averaged 14.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, which is solid but not enough to fully justify the higher recent lines.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Gui Santos▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	13	✓
Gui Santos▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✓
Gui Santos▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✓
Gui Santos▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	1	✓
Gui Santos▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Gui Santos▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Gui Santos▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
Gui Santos▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER2%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

STL1.5UNDER34%gbt_stealsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA26.5UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA5UNDER20%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTA4UNDER22%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A20UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST4OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PM1.5OVER1%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2.5UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

REB5UNDER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Gui Santos

Threes UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest under on the board because the season mean is 1.11 made threes, the away mean is 1.03, and the adjusted mean in value data is 1.3. The recent surge to 1.8 over the last 10 is exactly the kind of overextension that can regress, and the 1.5 line is still above his normal output.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tobias Harris	1	3	4	25%	25%
Isaiah Stewart	1	2	2	50%	50%
Daniss Jenkins	2	2	7	60%	70%
Ausar Thompson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Duncan Robinson	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.566%MEDIUM

The season mean is 8.21 points and the recent mean is 15.5, but that recent number is far above season baseline and suggests regression risk. DraftKings at 13.5 is still elevated relative to his season form, especially with no guarantee the last-5 minutes load repeats.

reboundsUNDER 5.564%MEDIUM

He averages 3.75 rebounds on the season and 4.5 away, below the 5.5 line. The last 10 at 6.3 is hot, but the prop metrics show a 3.03 season standard deviation, so the under remains playable.

assistsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.14 assists and his last 10 is 4.0, with away mean at 2.3 and recent minutes at 33.0. This is the strongest volume-based over, though the confidence stays modest because the assist distribution is volatile.

threesUNDER 1.570%HIGH

He averages 1.11 threes on the season and 1.03 away, both below a 1.5 line. Even with a recent 1.8 last-10 average, the adjusted mean in value data is 1.3, which supports the under.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

Season steals are 0.8 per game and last 10 jumps to 1.2, so a 0.5 line is reachable. The recent form and 1.4 stocks in the last 10 support at least one defensive event.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.3 blocks on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. Even with a few multi-category games, 0.5 is above his typical block production.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His combined season average for steals plus blocks is 1.1, which sits below 1.5. The recent run has improved, but the season baseline still points to the under.

paUNDER 15.557%MEDIUM

Using season means, points plus assists totals 10.3, far below this combo line. Recent production is strong, but combo props carry extra variance and this number is inflated off the hot stretch.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS