Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle | 3 | 8 | 33% | -14.2% | medium |
| Anthony Edwards | 2 | 7 | 79% | +19.2% | low |
| Josh Giddey | 2 | 6 | 64% | +9.6% | low |
| Payton Pritchard | 2 | 6 | 50% |
Will Richard’s season line of 6.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists shows a low-usage rotation role, and his recent scoring has been volatile with 4.0 PPG over the last 5. The matchup is not an ideal scoring spot: Detroit’s team context includes a 109.87 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, which points toward a modest offensive environment. His recent minutes have risen to 29.4 mpg over the last 5, but the data still leans toward a restrained box score rather than a breakout. The strongest recent category is defensive activity, with 2.0 steals per game over the last 5 and 1.9 stocks over the last 10.
No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context leans slightly under for scoring, with a 109.87 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring and three-point suppression.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Richard▼ | Points | 7.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 11 | ✗ |
Will Richard▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Will Richard▼ | Assists | 1.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 0 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Will Richard▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Will Richard▼ | Turnovers | 0.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 2 | ✓ |
Will Richard▼ | P+R | 10.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 12 | ✗ |
Will Richard▼ | P+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 11 | ✗ |
Will Richard▼ | R+A | 4.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 1 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 6.8 points and the recent mean is only 4.0. The value props also show a positive under edge at multiple books, including 8.6% edge and 17.27 EV per 100 at DraftKings.
| low |
| Immanuel Quickley | 2 | 6 | 30% | -27.5% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 5 | 50% | 63% |
| Duncan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Jaden Ivey | 1 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Ausar Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Caris LeVert | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
He averages 6.8 PPG on the season and only 4.0 PPG over the last 5, so 7.5 is above his typical scoring level. The value data also flags UNDER with an 8.6% edge and 17.27 EV per 100 at DraftKings.
His season average is 2.6 rebounds and his last 5 are 3.2, so 2.5 is a reachable number. Confidence stays modest because rebound variance is still meaningful with a 2.0 season standard deviation.
He averages 1.4 assists for the season and 1.2 over the last 5, which sits slightly below 1.5. The role and recent log support a low-assist profile despite a few 2-assist games.
He averages 1.07 made threes per game, but the last 5 are only 0.4 and the recent log shows multiple games with 0 made threes. With a 1.08 season standard deviation, this is still not a strong over spot.
His season average is 1.2 steals and the last 5 jump to 2.0, making 1.5 a reasonable target. The recent defensive production is a clear strength relative to his other counting stats.
He averages 1.34 stocks on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, so 1.5 is within range. This leans on defensive activity more than scoring efficiency.
He has 0.8 turnovers per game on both the season and the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is common. The line is low enough that even a conservative role still profiles to an over.
His season points-plus-rebounds average is 9.45 using 6.83 PPG and 2.62 RPG, and his recent scoring has cooled. Combo props are higher-variance, so the under is the safer side.
His season points-plus-assists average is 8.24, which sits below 8.5. With only 1.4 assists per game and scoring in the mid-single digits recently, the under is the conservative call.
His season rebounds-plus-assists average is 4.0, and the recent lift in rebounds has not been matched by enough assist volume. The combo stays below the posted 4.5 number.