AI Model:

Will Richard▼

GSW · SF

PPG

6.8

RPG

2.6

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

4.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.8

6.8

4.0

RPG+0.6

2.6

3.2

APG-0.2

1.4

1.2

SPG+0.8

1.2

2.0

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

BOS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BOS: 17 pts

DEN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 0 pts

MEM

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MEM: 21 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 4 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 8 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 5 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 0 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 7 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

3PM

UNDER 1.5BETONLINEAG

68%

STL

OVER 1.5BETONLINEAG

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

58%

OVER 0.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

R+A

UNDER 4.5STAKE

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.1

6.7

RPG

2.8

2.6

APG

1.6

2.1

vs DET (H2H)1 games

PPG

0.0

RPG

2.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Stephon Castle	3	8	33%	-14.2%	medium
Anthony Edwards	2	7	79%	+19.2%	low
Josh Giddey	2	6	64%	+9.6%	low
Payton Pritchard	2	6	50%

Richard’s scoring is capped, but steals keep him live

Will Richard’s season line of 6.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists shows a low-usage rotation role, and his recent scoring has been volatile with 4.0 PPG over the last 5. The matchup is not an ideal scoring spot: Detroit’s team context includes a 109.87 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, which points toward a modest offensive environment. His recent minutes have risen to 29.4 mpg over the last 5, but the data still leans toward a restrained box score rather than a breakout. The strongest recent category is defensive activity, with 2.0 steals per game over the last 5 and 1.9 stocks over the last 10.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.0(↓ from 6.8)

RPG

3.2(↑ from 2.6)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.4)

SPG

2.0(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context leans slightly under for scoring, with a 109.87 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring and three-point suppression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Will Richard▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%	11	✗
Will Richard▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
Will Richard▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Will Richard▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Will Richard▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Will Richard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Will Richard▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Will Richard▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	12	✗
Will Richard▼	P+A	8.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	11	✗
Will Richard▼	R+A	4.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS6OVER16%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x9/1850%▼

3PA3UNDER23%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x8/1844%▼

PRA10OVER18%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x9/1850%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/1844%▼

P+R9.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x8/1844%▼

P+A8OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/1850%▼

AST1OVER5%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)7/1839%▼

STL1UNDER3%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x5/1828%▼

3PM1UNDER20%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x4/1822%▼

REB2OVER32%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)8/1844%▼

Featured Pick

Will Richard

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 6.8 points and the recent mean is only 4.0. The value props also show a positive under edge at multiple books, including 8.6% edge and 17.27 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daniss Jenkins	2	4	5	50%	63%
Duncan Robinson	2	2	2	100%	100%
Jaden Ivey	1	2	2	50%	50%
Ausar Thompson	2	1	0	0%	0%
Caris LeVert	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.574%HIGH

He averages 6.8 PPG on the season and only 4.0 PPG over the last 5, so 7.5 is above his typical scoring level. The value data also flags UNDER with an 8.6% edge and 17.27 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.6 rebounds and his last 5 are 3.2, so 2.5 is a reachable number. Confidence stays modest because rebound variance is still meaningful with a 2.0 season standard deviation.

assistsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 assists for the season and 1.2 over the last 5, which sits slightly below 1.5. The role and recent log support a low-assist profile despite a few 2-assist games.

threesUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.07 made threes per game, but the last 5 are only 0.4 and the recent log shows multiple games with 0 made threes. With a 1.08 season standard deviation, this is still not a strong over spot.

stealsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.2 steals and the last 5 jump to 2.0, making 1.5 a reasonable target. The recent defensive production is a clear strength relative to his other counting stats.

stocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.34 stocks on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, so 1.5 is within range. This leans on defensive activity more than scoring efficiency.

turnoversOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He has 0.8 turnovers per game on both the season and the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is common. The line is low enough that even a conservative role still profiles to an over.

prUNDER 10.563%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds average is 9.45 using 6.83 PPG and 2.62 RPG, and his recent scoring has cooled. Combo props are higher-variance, so the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 8.564%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists average is 8.24, which sits below 8.5. With only 1.4 assists per game and scoring in the mid-single digits recently, the under is the conservative call.

raUNDER 4.561%MEDIUM

His season rebounds-plus-assists average is 4.0, and the recent lift in rebounds has not been matched by enough assist volume. The combo stays below the posted 4.5 number.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS