Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 2 | 7 | 30% | -37.7% | low |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 4 | 6 | 44% | -20.2% | medium |
| Lauri Markkanen | 2 | 6 | 67% | +9.0% | low |
| Jamal Murray | 3 | 6 | 57% |
Gary Payton II’s recent production is clearly above his season baseline, with 12.7 PPG over the last 10 and 14.4 PPG over the last 5 compared to 6.8 PPG on the season. That surge has come with a minutes jump from 14.6 season MPG to 21.7 MPG recently, which also boosts his rebounds, assists, and stocks. The matchup is not a clean offensive spot for upside, since his head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 6.4 PPG and 3.4 RPG across 5 games, and the opponent has a low pace of 100. With his recent form running hot, the safer projection is still to respect the season baseline on scoring while leaning into his stronger defensive floor.
No specific defender matchup data was provided. The opponent profile shows a 109.87 defensive rating, pace of 100, and three suppression of -1.145, which points to a slower, lower-volume environment rather than a track meet.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gary Payton II▼ | Points | 10.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 20% | 14 | ✗ |
Gary Payton II▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 3 | ✓ |
Gary Payton II▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Gary Payton II▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Gary Payton II▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
Gary Payton II▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Gary Payton II▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 70%HIGH | — | 70% | 1 | ✗ |
Gary Payton II▼ | P+R | 10.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 10% | 17 | ✗ |
Gary Payton II▼ | P+A | 8.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 20% | 17 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest numbers-based angle in the profile. He is at 0.9 SPG on the season, 1.9 over the last 10, and 2.4 over the last 5, so the recent defensive form is strong enough to justify the over despite the general OVER skepticism.
| medium |
| Austin Reaves | 3 | 6 | 71% | -0.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caris LeVert | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Daniss Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Ausar Thompson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Duncan Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jalen Duren | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is only 6.8 PPG, and even though the last 5 is 14.4, that is well above his baseline and likely to regress. The recent minutes increase helps, but the more conservative read is still under 10.5 given the season profile and the 6.4 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent.
He is averaging 3.5 RPG on the season and 3.49 in prop metrics, both below the 4.5 line. Recent boards are strong at 5.4 over the last 10, but that is elevated relative to his season baseline and comes with variance.
His season mean is 1.7 APG, and his recent 2.4 APG still sits below 2.5. The last 5 at 2.8 is hot, but the season and home/away splits do not support making over 2.5 the preferred side.
He averages just 0.56 made threes per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so this is close to a coin flip. Given the low-volume profile and the opponent's three suppression of -1.145, the under is slightly safer.
He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, with 2.4 over the last 5. With that defensive activity and the minutes bump, 0.5 is a low bar.
His season average is only 0.3 BPG and his last 10 is 0.2, so the block line is above his typical output. He can contribute occasionally, but the data supports under 0.5.
He combines 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocks on the season for 1.2 stocks, and his recent stock production is much stronger at 2.1 over the last 10. The last 5 at 2.8 is especially supportive of over 1.5.
His season PR is 10.3 if you combine 6.8 points and 3.5 rebounds, which sits right around the line. Because the over has been inflated by recent scoring/rebounding spikes, the under is the more cautious play.
His season P+A is 8.5 exactly using 6.8 points and 1.7 assists, so this is a tight number. With that kind of baseline and the recent surge already priced in, the under is the better lean.