AI Model:

Gary Payton II▲

GSW · SG

PPG

6.8

RPG

3.5

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

14.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.6

6.8

14.4

RPG+2.9

3.5

6.4

APG+1.1

1.7

2.8

SPG+1.5

0.9

2.4

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

10.5

NOP

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NOP: 4 pts

MEM

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MEM: 19 pts

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 7 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 13 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 12 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 19 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 15 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 14 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

64%

3PM

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

58%

STL

OVER 0.5

72%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

74%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

70%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 8.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.1

11.2

RPG

2.8

4.9

APG

1.9

1.8

vs DET (H2H)5 games

PPG

6.4

RPG

3.4

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Mitchell	2	7	30%	-37.7%	low
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	4	6	44%	-20.2%	medium
Lauri Markkanen	2	6	67%	+9.0%	low
Jamal Murray	3	6	57%

Payton’s minutes spike makes his defensive stats the safest angle

Gary Payton II’s recent production is clearly above his season baseline, with 12.7 PPG over the last 10 and 14.4 PPG over the last 5 compared to 6.8 PPG on the season. That surge has come with a minutes jump from 14.6 season MPG to 21.7 MPG recently, which also boosts his rebounds, assists, and stocks. The matchup is not a clean offensive spot for upside, since his head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 6.4 PPG and 3.4 RPG across 5 games, and the opponent has a low pace of 100. With his recent form running hot, the safer projection is still to respect the season baseline on scoring while leaning into his stronger defensive floor.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.4(↑ from 6.8)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 3.5)

APG

2.8(↑ from 1.7)

Stocks

2.8(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data was provided. The opponent profile shows a 109.87 defensive rating, pace of 100, and three suppression of -1.145, which points to a slower, lower-volume environment rather than a track meet.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Gary Payton II▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	14	✗
Gary Payton II▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Gary Payton II▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Gary Payton II▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✗
Gary Payton II▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	72%HIGH	1/2	90%	1	✓
Gary Payton II▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Gary Payton II▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	—	70%	1	✗
Gary Payton II▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	10%	17	✗
Gary Payton II▼	P+A	8.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5OVER50%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)15/2075%+26.0% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

STL1.5UNDER34%gbt_stealsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA3UNDER60%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 9x8/2040%▼

REB5.5UNDER17%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%▼

FTA0.5OVER2%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST2OVER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

PRA20OVER2%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

P+R18OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Gary Payton II

Steals OVER 0.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numbers-based angle in the profile. He is at 0.9 SPG on the season, 1.9 over the last 10, and 2.4 over the last 5, so the recent defensive form is strong enough to justify the over despite the general OVER skepticism.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Caris LeVert	1	2	0	0%	0%
Daniss Jenkins	1	2	2	0%	0%
Ausar Thompson	1	1	0	0%	0%
Duncan Robinson	1	0	0	0%	0%
Jalen Duren	1	0	2	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is only 6.8 PPG, and even though the last 5 is 14.4, that is well above his baseline and likely to regress. The recent minutes increase helps, but the more conservative read is still under 10.5 given the season profile and the 6.4 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent.

reboundsUNDER 4.561%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.5 RPG on the season and 3.49 in prop metrics, both below the 4.5 line. Recent boards are strong at 5.4 over the last 10, but that is elevated relative to his season baseline and comes with variance.

assistsUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.7 APG, and his recent 2.4 APG still sits below 2.5. The last 5 at 2.8 is hot, but the season and home/away splits do not support making over 2.5 the preferred side.

threesUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.56 made threes per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so this is close to a coin flip. Given the low-volume profile and the opponent's three suppression of -1.145, the under is slightly safer.

stealsOVER 0.572%HIGH

He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, with 2.4 over the last 5. With that defensive activity and the minutes bump, 0.5 is a low bar.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

His season average is only 0.3 BPG and his last 10 is 0.2, so the block line is above his typical output. He can contribute occasionally, but the data supports under 0.5.

stocksOVER 1.570%HIGH

He combines 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocks on the season for 1.2 stocks, and his recent stock production is much stronger at 2.1 over the last 10. The last 5 at 2.8 is especially supportive of over 1.5.

prUNDER 10.560%MEDIUM

His season PR is 10.3 if you combine 6.8 points and 3.5 rebounds, which sits right around the line. Because the over has been inflated by recent scoring/rebounding spikes, the under is the more cautious play.

paUNDER 8.563%MEDIUM

His season P+A is 8.5 exactly using 6.8 points and 1.7 assists, so this is a tight number. With that kind of baseline and the recent surge already priced in, the under is the better lean.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS