AI Model:

Jalen Duren▲

DET · C

PPG

19.0

RPG

10.6

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

24.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.8

19.0

24.8

RPG+0.6

10.6

11.2

APG-0.9

1.7

0.8

SPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

22.5

CLE

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CLE: 24 pts

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 7 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 17 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 24 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 26 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 30 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 36 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 24 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

P+R

UNDER 34.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

PRA

UNDER 36.5DRAFTKINGS

73%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.3

21.7

RPG

12.0

9.5

APG

1.6

1.5

vs GSW (H2H)6 games

PPG

12.7

RPG

10.8

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nic Claxton	4	27	57%	-7.5%	medium
Onyeka Okongwu	4	25	61%	-12.0%	medium
Neemias Queta	3	23	71%	+6.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	4	23	75%

Duren’s rebounding floor is solid, but the points price looks inflated

Jalen Duren is trending up overall, with 24.8 PPG and 11.2 RPG over his last 5 compared to 19.0 PPG and 10.6 RPG for the season, but that scoring surge sits well above his baseline. His matchup profile is mixed: the Warriors allow a 114.35 defensive rating and play at a 100 pace, while Duren’s season splits are stronger at home for rebounds (12.0 home vs 9.5 away). The strongest caution is the head-to-head history, where he has averaged only 12.67 PPG across 6 games vs this opponent. That makes his rebound and combo floors more reliable than chasing an elevated points number.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.8(↑ from 19.0)

RPG

11.2(↑ from 10.6)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.7)

Stocks

1.4(↓ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

The opponent context is not a specific-defender setup here, and there is no exact matchup scheme data beyond the team defense numbers. The Warriors have a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a -0.23 scoring suppression mark, while Duren’s own history vs this opponent is only 12.67 PPG over 6 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Duren▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	40%	23	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Rebounds	11.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	6	✓
Jalen Duren▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%	1	✓
Jalen Duren▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✓
Jalen Duren▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Jalen Duren▼	P+R	34.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	29	✓
Jalen Duren▼	PRA	36.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	70%	30	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA32.5OVER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS22.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST2OVER46%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 8x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTA7.5UNDER6%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A24UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

REB10.5OVER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

BLK1UNDER48%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

FTM6UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R32UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Duren

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because his season mean is 19.03 PPG and his head-to-head average vs this opponent is just 12.67 PPG across 6 games. Even though his last 5 is hot at 24.8, that is a clear step above his season baseline and looks ripe for regression toward the lower number.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Draymond Green	2	10	9	43%	57%
De'Anthony Melton	2	2	4	40%	40%
Brandin Podziemski	2	1	0	0%	0%
Al Horford	1	1	0	0%	0%
Quinten Post	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 22.584%HIGH

His season mean is 19.03 PPG, and his last 20 is 21.6, still below 22.5. The head-to-head sample is especially weak at 12.67 PPG across 6 games vs this opponent, which supports fading the inflated scoring line.

reboundsUNDER 11.561%MEDIUM

He averages 10.6 RPG for the season and 9.9 over the last 5, both below 11.5. The home split is strong at 12.0 RPG, but the season baseline and recent mean keep this closer to a coin flip than a strong over.

assistsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

Duren’s season mean is 1.69 APG, but his recent mean is 1.3 and he has gone 0 assists in two of his last five. With low playmaking volume and limited variance upside, the under is the cleaner side.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 BPG on the season and 1.1 at home, so 0.5 is a low bar. Recent form is still usable at 0.8 blocks over the last 5.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 0.8 over the last 20, both clearing 0.5 comfortably. The last 5 dipped to 0.6, but the season profile still supports the over.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.72 and his last 20 is 1.6, both around or above this threshold. With 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks per game season-long, he has enough two-way production to justify the over.

prUNDER 34.570%HIGH

His season P+R profile is 29.63, and even his recent scoring bump plus rebound base still leaves this line elevated. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred unless the scoring spike repeats.

praUNDER 36.573%HIGH

His season PRA is 31.3, well below 36.5, and his passing volume remains small at 1.7 APG. Because combo props are high-variance, the under is the safer read here.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS