Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Sheppard | 2 | 9 | 60% | -8.4% | low |
| Amen Thompson | 2 | 7 | 43% | -5.5% | low |
| Jalen Brunson | 1 | 6 | 40% | -8.4% | low |
| Kris Dunn | 2 | 6 | 63% | +1.6% |
Dejounte Murray is in strong recent form, with his last 5 games jumping to 22.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 5.6 APG while playing 29.2 MPG. His season baseline is still a more modest 19.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 5.9 APG, so the hot stretch is real but should be weighted carefully against regression. The matchup environment is supportive for scoring with Cleveland’s opponent defense showing a 114.81 defensive rating and Jarrett Allen out, and Murray has also produced 20.9 PPG and 6.0 APG in 10 games vs this opponent. The biggest caution is turnovers and volatility: his recent usage has come with 3.4 TOPG in the last 5, which can limit efficiency and stabilize a lower assist outcome than the market may expect.
The opponent context is neutral-to-positive for offense with a 114.81 defensive rating and Jarrett Allen listed out. There is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond the provided key defenders field.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dejounte Murray▼ | Points | 17.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 12 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 3 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | Assists | 6.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 9 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 74%HIGH | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | Turnovers | 3.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | PRA | 31.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 24 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | P+A | 26 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 21 | ✗ |
Dejounte Murray▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | — | — | — | — |
This is the strongest combination of season production and value. Murray averages 1.78 made threes on the season, 2.0 over his last 5, and the value data shows a 17.2% edge at 1.5, which is well above the threshold for a strong play.
| low |
| Jalen Green | 1 | 5 | 67% | +18.3% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| James Harden | 1 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Sam Merrill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Evan Mobley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Max Strus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 19.4 PPG and his last 5 are 22.6 PPG, both above this line. Even with regression risk, the opponent context and recent scoring form support a small lean over.
He averages 5.3 rebounds on the season and 6.0 over the last 5, with 6.0 RPG in 10 games vs this opponent. This is close enough to the number to lean over, but confidence stays modest.
His season average is 5.9 APG and his last 5 are 5.6 APG, both below 6.5. The recent assist data is not strong enough to justify an over in a prop category with high variance.
He averages 1.78 made threes on the season and has 2.0 over the last 5, which is comfortably above 1.5. The value data also shows a 17.2% edge at this line, making this the clearest angle.
He averages 1.7 steals on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so the floor for a defensive stats over is solid. The volatility is still meaningful, so confidence stays moderate.
His season block average is only 0.2, and his last 5 blocks are 0.0. This is a low-volume block profile, so the under is the clean side.
He combines 1.7 steals and 0.2 blocks for 1.9 stocks per game on the season, with 1.6 over the last 5. That clears 1.5, though the block component is minimal.
He has 3.4 turnovers per game in his last 5 and 3.1 over his last 20, so the market would likely price this near a volatile range. The recent run is elevated, but the projected line is high enough to prefer the under.
His season blend of 19.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.9 assists gives a strong base, and the last 5 trend is even better at 22.6/6.0/5.6. Combo props are volatile, so this is only a modest lean.
His season points-plus-assists profile is 25.3, and recent scoring is up even though assists have held around 5.6 to 5.9. This is playable, but combo risk keeps confidence low.
He has multiple near-double-digit categories, but his typical rebound and assist ranges still make a double-double far from automatic. The safest read is that he does not get there consistently enough to support the over.