Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

CLE

Cleveland Cavaliers

43-27 | L10: 6-4

NOP

New Orleans Pelicans

25-46 | L10: 6-4

2026-03-21

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

CLE95%

5%NOP

CLE80-98NOP

Key Factors

*Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell (28.0 PPG) - questionable ()
*Cavaliers without Jarrett Allen (15.3 PPG) - out (Knee)
*Cavaliers without Jaylon Tyson (13.1 PPG) - questionable (Toe)
*Pelicans without Bryce McGowens (8.1 PPG) - out (Toe)
*Cavaliers without Craig Porter Jr. (4.4 PPG) - out (Groin)

Key Matchup

Pelicans has matchup advantages

NOP Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

CLE Players

Donovan Mitchell

Trey Murphy III2g · 5m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Saddiq Bey2g · 5m+0.0%50% eFGlow

Bryce McGowens1g · 3m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Dean Wade

Zion Williamson2g · 7m+0.0%57% eFGlow

Saddiq Bey2g · 4m+0.0%25% eFGlow

Cleveland enters at 43-27 with a 2-game streak, while New Orleans is 25-46 and has won 3 straight despite being well below .500. Both teams are on 2 days rest and neither is on a back-to-back, so the biggest drivers here are form, usage, and the injury context rather than fatigue.

Team Comparison

CLENOP

Key Players

Harden is averaging 24.3 PPG and 8.0 APG on the season, with 24.6 PPG over his last 5 and 7.4 APG over that same span. His points trend is stable-to-up, but his last-5 turnover rate is 4.2 TO, so the assist/turnover profile carries more volatility than the raw scoring line suggests.

ProjectedPTS: 15.2-21.8-28.4REB: 2.3-5.3-8.3AST: 5.4-7.8-10.2

Mitchell’s season line is 28.0 PPG, but he is at 22.2 PPG over his last 5 and 23.3 PPG over his last 10, which is meaningfully below his season pace. That gap makes his points market more attractive on the under side than chasing an over, especially given the recent scoring dip and 1.6 SPG plus 1.8 stocks in the last 5 showing his impact is not limited to scoring.

ProjectedPTS: 16.3-22.9-29.5REB: 1.2-4.2-7.2AST: 3.8-6.2-8.6

Mobley is the hottest Cleveland player here, posting 23.6 PPG and 12.0 RPG over his last 5 versus season marks of 18.3 PPG and 8.9 RPG. The matchup context is strong because New Orleans has a 119.27 defensive rating, and his season rebounds line sits close to the game props at 8.5/9.5, but his recent surge also raises regression risk on inflated overs.

ProjectedPTS: 11.6-18.2-24.8REB: 7.1-10.1-13.1AST: 1-3.4-5.8

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Evan Mobley▼ CLE	Points	17.5stake	OVER	72%HIGH	80%	+12.3%	18	✓
Trey Murphy III▼ NOP	3PM	3.5fanduel	OVER	74%HIGH	70%	+16.5%	2	✗
James Harden▼ CLE	Points	23.5stake	OVER	63%MEDIUM	30%	0.0%	20	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼ CLE	Points	23.5stake	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	50%	0.0%	27	✗
Zion Williamson▼ NOP	Points	24.5stake	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	90%	0.0%	25	✗

Model Comparison

2 models · 10 props compared

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Props Shown

10 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Evan Mobley

Points OVER 17.5HIGH

Mobley’s 18.3 season PPG and 23.6 PPG over his last 5 both clear 17.5, and the 0.123 edge with 24.06 EV per 100 makes this the strongest value on the slate.

Trey Murphy III

Threes OVER 3.5HIGH

Murphy is at 3.32 threes per game for the season and 3.8 over his last 5, with a 0.165 edge and 34.34 EV per 100 on the FanDuel line.

Zion Williamson

Points UNDER 24.5MEDIUM

Zion is at 21.3 PPG season-long and 19.2 PPG over his last 5, so the 24.5 line sits above both markers and benefits from regression toward his current form.

Parlay of the Game

Evan Mobley — Points OVER 17.5Leg 1

Trey Murphy III — Threes OVER 3.5Leg 2

Zion Williamson — Points UNDER 24.5Leg 3

Mobley and Murphy both have strong recent production against lines below their current run rates, while Zion’s under aligns with a clear recent scoring dip. These legs do not depend on each other directly, but they combine two value overs with one regression-based under from the same game environment.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Dejounte Murray is listed as Available but carries an injury note of Injury/Illness-LeftEye. James Harden is Available with an injury note of Injury/Illness-RightThumb. No other listed key player is flagged beyond the provided statuses, and Cleveland is missing Jarrett Allen, Craig Porter Jr., and Tyrese Proctor while New Orleans is missing Bryce McGowens, Hunter Dickinson, and Trey Alexander.

Player Deep Dives

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.