Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 16 | 60% | +16.0% | medium |
| Jaylen Wells | 3 | 14 | 83% | +22.7% | medium |
| Dyson Daniels | 2 | 12 | 0% | -44.0% | low |
| LeBron James | 4 | 12 | 50% |
James Harden enters this matchup with season averages of 24.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 8.0 assists across 34.9 MPG, while his last 5 show 24.6 points and 7.4 assists. The recent scoring trend has been mixed: his last 10 points are down to 22.3 and his last 20 are 20.9, which is a sign to avoid getting too aggressive on overs. He also gets a usage/minutes boost from teammate absences, especially with Jarrett Allen out, but the opponent context is still enough to keep the scoring projection closer to his season mean than his best recent spikes. His three-point volume remains strong, and the value data points to the clearest edge on threes rather than points or assists.
Key defender matchup data is available, but the only listed names are Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, and Dejounte Murray with limited minutes data; there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate beyond that. The opponent context is still favorable for a disciplined approach because New Orleans shows a 119.27 defensive rating and 0.9 scoring suppression, which can cap efficient scoring stretches.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
James Harden▼ | Points | 23.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 20 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 6 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Assists | 8.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 10 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 2 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | Turnovers | 3.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
James Harden▼ | PRA | 37 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 36 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | P+A | 32.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 30 | ✓ |
James Harden▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | — | — | — |
This is the strongest value signal in the dataset, with a 10.9% edge and positive EV at multiple books. Harden’s season 3.1 threes per game and 3.4 over the last 10 support the over, and the line is still below his core production level.
| medium |
| Andrew Wiggins | 4 | 11 | 91% | +28.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herbert Jones | 2 | 8 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| Saddiq Bey | 2 | 7 | 12 | 67% | 83% |
| Trey Murphy III | 2 | 4 | 5 | 50% | 63% |
| Yves Missi | 2 | 4 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Zion Williamson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 24.3, but the recent 10-game average is only 22.3 and his last 20 is 20.9, so the current line is a bit rich relative to the broader form. New Orleans also carries a 119.27 defensive rating context with 0.9 scoring suppression, which supports a slightly cautious lean.
He is averaging 4.9 rebounds on the season and 5.4 over the last 10, so 4.5 is a modest bar. The recent minute load is intact at 34.5 MPG, and teammate absences can keep him on the floor in more half-court possessions.
His season average is 8.0 and the last 10 is 7.1, so this sits above the central tendency. The value board also leans under on 8.5 assists, and his recent turnover load of 3.6-4.2 per game adds volatility to the passing outcomes.
This is the cleanest value on the board: the model shows a 10.9% edge and an estimated +19.92 EV per 100, with an our_prob_over of 0.659. He averages 3.1 threes season-long and 3.4 over the last 10, so clearing 2.5 remains very reachable.
He is at 1.1 steals per game for the season, but recent production has slipped to 0.6 over the last 10. The 1.5 line is high relative to that baseline, and the recent sample does not support an aggressive over.
He averages only 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. A 0.5 line is close, but the data still leans slightly to the under.
His season stocks average is 1.53, but the last 10 is only 0.8 and the last 20 is 1.3. Given the variance, this is not a strong over spot despite the season number.
His recent turnover trend is elevated at 3.6 over the last 10 and 4.2 over the last 5, compared to a season baseline around 3.6 from the recent logs. That makes 3.5 a reasonable over target if the line is available.
Using season averages, his profile lands around 37.2 PRA, but recent scoring has softened while assists have trended down. Combo props are higher variance, so the lean stays conservative.
His season points plus assists total is 32.3, and the last 10 combination is below that because assists have dipped to 7.1 and points to 22.3. With the line at 32.5, the under is slightly preferable.
He is not close enough in two categories to make a double-double a strong expectation, with assists at 8.0 and rebounds at 4.9 season-long. While the assist column gives him a path, the rebound base keeps this under lean intact.