AI Model:

James Harden▲

CLE · PG

PPG

24.3

RPG

4.9

APG

8.0

L5 PPG

24.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

24.3

24.6

RPG+0.9

4.9

5.8

APG-0.6

8.0

7.4

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

23.5

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 19 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 30 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 17 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 36 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5STAKE

57%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

54%

AST

UNDER 8.5STAKE

61%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

68%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

OVER 3.5

58%

PRA

UNDER 37

55%

P+A

UNDER 32.5STAKE

57%

UNDER 0.5

72%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.4

23.3

RPG

4.5

5.6

APG

7.6

7.9

vs NOP (H2H)11 games

PPG

22.3

RPG

3.9

APG

10.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cooper Flagg	4	16	60%	+16.0%	medium
Jaylen Wells	3	14	83%	+22.7%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	12	0%	-44.0%	low
LeBron James	4	12	50%

Harden’s assist floor is strong, but points face a tougher path

James Harden enters this matchup with season averages of 24.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 8.0 assists across 34.9 MPG, while his last 5 show 24.6 points and 7.4 assists. The recent scoring trend has been mixed: his last 10 points are down to 22.3 and his last 20 are 20.9, which is a sign to avoid getting too aggressive on overs. He also gets a usage/minutes boost from teammate absences, especially with Jarrett Allen out, but the opponent context is still enough to keep the scoring projection closer to his season mean than his best recent spikes. His three-point volume remains strong, and the value data points to the clearest edge on threes rather than points or assists.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.6(→ from 24.3)

APG

7.4(↓ from 8.0)

RPG

5.8(↑ from 4.9)

3PM

3.6(↑ from 3.1)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is available, but the only listed names are Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, and Dejounte Murray with limited minutes data; there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate beyond that. The opponent context is still favorable for a disciplined approach because New Orleans shows a 119.27 defensive rating and 0.9 scoring suppression, which can cap efficient scoring stretches.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
James Harden▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	20	✓
James Harden▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	6	✓
James Harden▼	Assists	8.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	10	✗
James Harden▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
James Harden▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
James Harden▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
James Harden▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
James Harden▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
James Harden▼	PRA	37	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	36	✓
James Harden▼	P+A	32.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	30	✓
James Harden▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%▼

P+A28.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

James Harden

Threes OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the strongest value signal in the dataset, with a 10.9% edge and positive EV at multiple books. Harden’s season 3.1 threes per game and 3.4 over the last 10 support the over, and the line is still below his core production level.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Herbert Jones	2	8	3	33%	50%
Saddiq Bey	2	7	12	67%	83%
Trey Murphy III	2	4	5	50%	63%
Yves Missi	2	4	4	67%	67%
Zion Williamson	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 23.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 24.3, but the recent 10-game average is only 22.3 and his last 20 is 20.9, so the current line is a bit rich relative to the broader form. New Orleans also carries a 119.27 defensive rating context with 0.9 scoring suppression, which supports a slightly cautious lean.

reboundsOVER 4.554%MEDIUM

He is averaging 4.9 rebounds on the season and 5.4 over the last 10, so 4.5 is a modest bar. The recent minute load is intact at 34.5 MPG, and teammate absences can keep him on the floor in more half-court possessions.

assistsUNDER 8.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 8.0 and the last 10 is 7.1, so this sits above the central tendency. The value board also leans under on 8.5 assists, and his recent turnover load of 3.6-4.2 per game adds volatility to the passing outcomes.

threesOVER 2.566%MEDIUM

This is the cleanest value on the board: the model shows a 10.9% edge and an estimated +19.92 EV per 100, with an our_prob_over of 0.659. He averages 3.1 threes season-long and 3.4 over the last 10, so clearing 2.5 remains very reachable.

stealsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He is at 1.1 steals per game for the season, but recent production has slipped to 0.6 over the last 10. The 1.5 line is high relative to that baseline, and the recent sample does not support an aggressive over.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. A 0.5 line is close, but the data still leans slightly to the under.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.53, but the last 10 is only 0.8 and the last 20 is 1.3. Given the variance, this is not a strong over spot despite the season number.

turnoversOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

His recent turnover trend is elevated at 3.6 over the last 10 and 4.2 over the last 5, compared to a season baseline around 3.6 from the recent logs. That makes 3.5 a reasonable over target if the line is available.

praUNDER 3755%MEDIUM

Using season averages, his profile lands around 37.2 PRA, but recent scoring has softened while assists have trended down. Combo props are higher variance, so the lean stays conservative.

paUNDER 32.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists total is 32.3, and the last 10 combination is below that because assists have dipped to 7.1 and points to 22.3. With the line at 32.5, the under is slightly preferable.

double_doubleUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He is not close enough in two categories to make a double-double a strong expectation, with assists at 8.0 and rebounds at 4.9 season-long. While the assist column gives him a path, the rebound base keeps this under lean intact.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS