AI Model:

Donovan Mitchell—

CLE · SG

PPG

28.0

RPG

4.5

APG

5.9

L5 PPG

22.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.8

28.0

22.2

RPG-0.7

4.5

3.8

APG+0.7

5.9

6.6

SPG0.0

1.6

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 28.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

28.5

BKN

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs BKN: 17 pts

CHA

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs CHA: 32 pts

OKC

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs OKC: 20 pts

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 30 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 26 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 19 pts

Over 28.5

Under 28.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 28.5STAKE

71%

AST

OVER 5.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

69%

3PM

OVER 2.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

P+A

UNDER 34.5STAKE

60%

P+R

UNDER 34.5STAKE

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

27.3

25.6

RPG

4.0

3.7

APG

5.9

6.5

vs NOP (H2H)13 games

PPG

22.0

RPG

4.2

APG

4.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
OG Anunoby	3	13	0%	-48.1%	medium
Pelle Larsson	3	11	83%	+18.6%	medium
Kelly Oubre Jr.	4	11	50%	-3.7%	medium
Anthony Black	2	10	67%

Mitchell’s points are capped, but the assist and combo angles hold up

Donovan Mitchell’s season scoring average is 28.0 PPG, but his last-5 has dipped to 22.2 and his last-10 is 23.3, signaling regression from his early-season scoring pace. The matchup context is mixed: New Orleans owns a 119.27 defensive rating and allows a fast 100 pace, but Mitchell’s home/away splits are solid overall and his away assist rate sits at 6.31 APG versus 5.87 for the season. With Jarrett Allen out, Cleveland’s usage distribution shifts, but Mitchell’s own injury status is questionable, which adds volatility and makes his high-scoring overs less attractive.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.2(↓ from 28.0)

APG

6.6(↑ from 5.9)

RPG

3.8(↓ from 4.5)

Stocks

1.8(→ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent defense data shows a 119.27 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.9 scoring suppression, which leans toward a tougher scoring environment. Key defender data exists, but it is limited to Trey Murphy III and Saddiq Bey with only partial minutes data, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond that.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Donovan Mitchell▼	Points	28.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	80%	27	✓
Donovan Mitchell▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	3	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	7	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	3	✓
Donovan Mitchell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
Donovan Mitchell▼	P+A	34.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	30	✓
Donovan Mitchell▼	P+R	34.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	34	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB3.5OVER21%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R29.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

PTS25.5UNDER12%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

PRA36UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER12%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PA7UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

FTA6.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

AST5UNDER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

3PM2UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM6UNDER28%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Donovan Mitchell

Points UNDER 28.5HIGH

Mitchell’s season average of 28.0 is already just below the line, and his last-5 at 22.2 plus last-10 at 23.3 point to a clear cooldown. The value market is also aligned with the under on lower point totals, making this the cleanest edge despite his high season scoring level.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Trey Murphy III	2	5	6	67%	100%
Saddiq Bey	2	5	4	50%	50%
Bryce McGowens	1	3	0	0%	0%
Herbert Jones	1	3	3	25%	38%
Micah Peavy	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 28.571%HIGH

His season mean is 28.05, but the last-5 is only 22.2 and the last-10 is 23.3, so the current form is well below this line. The value data also shows the UNDER on 26.5 has a strong edge, reinforcing a lower-scoring projection.

assistsOVER 5.563%MEDIUM

He averages 5.87 APG on the season and 6.6 over the last 5, with 6.31 APG away from home. With Jarrett Allen out, the ball-handling burden can stay elevated, and this is one of the cleaner overs on the card.

reboundsUNDER 4.569%MEDIUM

Mitchell sits at 4.48 RPG for the season and 4.4 over the last 10, so 4.5 is right on the edge but not a strong over spot. The lower-variance play is the under, especially given his recent 3.8 RPG last-5.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.34 threes per game on the season and 3.5 at home, both above this line. Recent volume is lower at 1.9 last-10, so confidence is moderate rather than strong.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.85 stocks and his away split is 2.0, which supports clearing 1.5. The recent mean of 1.9 also stays above the line, but the variance keeps this at medium confidence.

paUNDER 34.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile does not comfortably support a higher combo number when scoring is trending down. With 28.0 PPG and 5.9 APG, this combo is driven mostly by points, which is the weaker side right now.

prUNDER 34.558%MEDIUM

His season average of 32.53 points plus rebounds sits below this line, and his recent scoring drop makes the under more appealing. Rebounds have not shown enough upside to offset the points decline.

timelineUNDER 28.5 PTS