AI Model:

Zion Williamson▼

NOP · PF

PPG

21.3

RPG

5.8

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

19.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.1

21.3

19.2

RPG-1.0

5.8

4.8

APG-1.1

3.3

2.2

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

UTA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs UTA: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 24 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 23 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 19 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 20 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 21 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 27 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAC: 15 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 6.5STAKE

61%

AST

UNDER 4.5STAKE

73%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

67%

UNDER 2

60%

P+R

UNDER 30.5STAKE

63%

P+A

UNDER 27.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.7

18.5

RPG

4.4

5.8

APG

3.0

vs CLE (H2H)5 games

PPG

29.8

RPG

7.4

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Precious Achiuwa	3	17	33%	-26.7%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	17	44%	-26.7%	medium
Jaren Jackson Jr.	4	14	66%	-5.5%	medium
P.J. Washington	3	11	88%

Zion’s minutes are solid, but the scoring line is asking a lot

Zion Williamson is averaging 21.3 PPG, but his recent form has cooled to 19.2 over the last 5 and 18.6 over the last 10, which points to a downward trend. He’s still playing real minutes at 29.6 MPG season-long and 31.2 MPG over the last 5, but the market has posted a 24.5 points line that sits above both his season mean and recent production. The matchup history is strong with 29.8 PPG and 7.4 RPG in 5 games vs this opponent, yet the safer angle is that his current scoring baseline has not matched that ceiling lately.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.2(↓ from 21.3)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.2(↓ from 3.3)

Stocks

1.6(→ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. The opponent data shows a 114.81 defensive rating and an away-friendly head-to-head sample for Zion, but his current scoring trend is lower than his matchup history.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Zion Williamson▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	25	✗
Zion Williamson▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	6	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	90%	4	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Zion Williamson▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Zion Williamson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Zion Williamson▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	31	✗
Zion Williamson▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	29	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA31.5UNDER39%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%+19.0% edge▼

PTS22.5UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%+20.1% edge▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x11/2055%▼

P+A21.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x12/2060%▼

REB6.5UNDER56%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+20.8% edge▼

FTA8UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

AST3.5UNDER16%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x5/2025%+13.5% edge▼

FTM5UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Zion Williamson

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Zion’s season average is 3.3 APG and his last 5 and last 10 are both 2.2 APG. The 4.5 line is well above his typical distribution, and the recent trend points down rather than up.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dean Wade	2	5	0	0%	0%
Sam Merrill	2	3	6	100%	150%
De'Andre Hunter	1	2	0	0%	0%
Max Strus	1	2	0	0%	0%
Evan Mobley	1	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 24.568%MEDIUM

His season average is 21.3 PPG and his last 10 is 18.6, both below 24.5. Even with a strong 29.8 PPG head-to-head average, the recent drop makes the under more reliable.

reboundsUNDER 6.561%MEDIUM

Zion is at 5.8 RPG for the season and 5.0 over the last 10, so 6.5 is above his baseline. The away split is 5.8 RPG and nothing in the provided data suggests a clear rebound spike tonight.

assistsUNDER 4.573%HIGH

He averages 3.3 APG on the season and just 2.2 across the last 5 and last 10. The 4.5 line is well above both his season and recent production.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

Zion averages exactly 1.0 SPG on the season, but his recent steals production has been inconsistent. A 1.5 line is still a step above his typical output.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 BPG on the season and has reached 0.6 over the last 5. With the line at 0.5, the over is supported by his season rate, though variance keeps confidence moderate.

stocksUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

His combined steals plus blocks profile is 1.57 season-long and 1.0 over the last 10, so 2.5 is a high bar. This is a variance-heavy stat, and his recent form does not support an over.

turnoversUNDER 260%MEDIUM

He’s at 1.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.8 over the last 5, which is close to but still below 2.0. The recent trend does not justify an over without stronger usage context.

prUNDER 30.563%MEDIUM

Zion’s season points plus rebounds profile is 27.1 using 21.3 PPG and 5.8 RPG, and his recent scoring/rebounding has trended down. The combo line is inflated relative to his current form.

paUNDER 27.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists is 24.6, and his last 10 points plus assists is 20.8. The line sits meaningfully above both benchmarks.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS