AI Model:

Evan Mobley▲

CLE · C

PPG

18.3

RPG

8.9

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

23.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.3

18.3

23.6

RPG+3.1

8.9

12.0

APG-0.6

3.6

3.0

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG-0.1

1.9

1.8

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 23 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 17 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 24 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 15 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 18 pts

DAL

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DAL: 29 pts

DAL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 26 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

OVER 8.5STAKE

68%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

BLK

UNDER 2.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

58%

P+R

UNDER 26.5STAKE

60%

R+A

OVER 12.5STAKE

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.0

19.5

RPG

8.6

10.5

APG

3.0

2.5

vs NOP (H2H)6 games

PPG

16.2

RPG

8.2

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Scottie Barnes	3	16	44%	-11.1%	medium
Paolo Banchero	4	14	59%	-2.9%	medium
Adem Bona	4	14	40%	-14.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	12	68%

Mobley’s minutes are secure and the rebound/blocks floor looks strong

Evan Mobley is in clear upward form, with his last 5 averaging 23.6 PPG and 12.0 RPG compared to season marks of 18.3 PPG and 8.9 RPG. The biggest driver tonight is role stability: Jarrett Allen is out, which should keep Mobley’s rebounding and interior usage elevated. The matchup is also workable, with New Orleans allowing a 119.27 defensive rating and Mobley’s own stocks production staying steady at 2.4 over the last 10. His scoring has been volatile versus this opponent historically at 16.17 PPG in 6 games, so the cleaner angles are rebounds and defensive stats rather than chasing a big points ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.6(↑ from 18.3)

RPG

12.0(↑ from 8.9)

APG

3.0(→ from 3.6)

Stocks

2.2(→ from 2.7)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited, but no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. New Orleans has a 119.27 defensive rating and pace of 100, which is not a strong suppression environment overall.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Evan Mobley▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	18	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	8	✗
Evan Mobley▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
Evan Mobley▼	Blocks	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✓
Evan Mobley▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	3	✗
Evan Mobley▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	26	✓
Evan Mobley▼	R+A	12.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	11	✗

ML Scout Analysis

REB8.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+R28.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

R+A12OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

P+A22UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PTS18UNDER30%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST3UNDER1%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA2UNDER55%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 10x6/2030%▼

PRA33UNDER25%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

BLK0.5UNDER26%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA5UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Evan Mobley

Rebounds OVER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Mobley’s season average is 8.9 RPG and his recent form is stronger at 10.6 over the last 10 and 12.0 over the last 5. Jarrett Allen being out should keep Mobley anchored to a larger rebounding role, making this the most stable prop on the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Herbert Jones	1	3	6	50%	75%
Yves Missi	1	3	2	50%	50%
Zion Williamson	1	2	12	71%	71%
Trey Murphy III	1	1	0	0%	0%
Saddiq Bey	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 19.566%MEDIUM

Season scoring is 18.3 PPG and his last 20 is 18.8, so the 19.5 line sits slightly above the most stable baseline. His last 5 spike to 23.6 is strong, but that run is above season pace and is a candidate for regression.

reboundsOVER 8.568%MEDIUM

Mobley is averaging 8.9 RPG on the season, 10.6 over the last 10, and 12.0 over the last 5. Jarrett Allen being out should help keep his rebounding chances high.

assistsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 APG for the season and 2.4 over the last 10, which still supports the over at a modest line. The edge is not massive, so confidence stays moderate.

blocksUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

Mobley averages 1.9 BPG on the season and 2.0 over the last 20, but 2.5 is still above his typical level. Because blocks carry variance, the under is the safer side at this number.

stocksUNDER 358%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.67 and recent marks are 2.2 to 2.5, so a 3.0 projection is slightly rich. This is a volatile category, which lowers confidence on the over.

prUNDER 26.560%MEDIUM

Mobley’s season P+R based on the provided averages is 27.2, but the last 20 profile is closer to 28.4 with scoring not fully holding the recent spike. Given the over-bias warning on combo props, staying under the book line is the more conservative play.

raOVER 12.556%MEDIUM

He combines for 13.4 R+A on season averages and 13.1 over the last 20, which is right in range for this line. Allen’s absence improves the rebounding side of this combo.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS