AI Model:

Sam Merrill▲

CLE · SF

PPG

12.8

RPG

2.4

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

10.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.8

12.8

10.0

RPG+1.4

2.4

3.8

APG+0.9

2.3

3.2

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

NYK

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs NYK: 0 pts

MIL

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs MIL: 14 pts

DET

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DET: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BKN: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DET: 9 pts

BOS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs BOS: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs PHI: 2 pts

ORL

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs ORL: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIL: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHI: 13 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5STAKE

67%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

63%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

61%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

65%

UNDER 0.5

74%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.9

13.5

RPG

2.6

2.4

APG

2.9

1.9

vs NOP (H2H)5 games

PPG

9.6

RPG

2.2

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	4	20	100%	+20.8%	medium
Duncan Robinson	3	12	64%	+8.6%	medium
Trey Murphy III	2	8	50%	-5.9%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	8	44%

Merrill’s minutes are stable, but scoring is better as an UNDER than an OVER

Sam Merrill is playing steady run, with 26.0 season MPG and 28.4 MPG over his last 10, but his recent production has cooled to 10.8 PPG versus a 12.8 season average. His last 5 are down further to 10.0 PPG, while rebounds and assists have held up a bit better at 3.8 RPG and 3.2 APG. Cleveland’s absences should keep him involved, but the market is still asking him to clear a scoring number above his recent form, and his season mean plus variance profile points to caution on overs. Against New Orleans, the matchup environment is not a strong scoring boost based on the data provided, and his head-to-head scoring average is only 9.6 PPG in 5 games.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.0(↓ from 12.8)

RPG

3.8(↑ from 2.4)

APG

3.2(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited; the provided list does not show a clear single matchup edge, so there is no specific defender matchup data. New Orleans has a 119.27 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which does not create an obvious scoring spike for Merrill.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Sam Merrill▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	15	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	10	✗
Sam Merrill▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✗
Sam Merrill▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✓
Sam Merrill▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Sam Merrill▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Sam Merrill▼	Turnovers	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	60%	1	✗
Sam Merrill▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	25	✗
Sam Merrill▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	17	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

PTS13UNDER27%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A14.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

REB3UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

AST2OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

PRA17.5UNDER27%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A5.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

3PA7UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER19%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM0.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

FTA1UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Sam Merrill

Assists OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest positive-edge angle in the data, with multiple books showing an OVER lean and value as high as 8.2% at BetRivers. Merrill’s recent assist form is stronger than his season average, and he has reached 3.2 APG over his last 5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Trey Murphy III	2	8	5	40%	50%
Dejounte Murray	1	4	2	33%	33%
Saddiq Bey	2	3	13	56%	72%
Bryce McGowens	1	2	0	0%	0%
Herbert Jones	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.567%MEDIUM

His last 10 scoring average is 10.8 PPG and his last 5 are 10.0 PPG, both below 11.5. Season mean is 12.8, but the recent trend and his 9.6 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent support a conservative UNDER.

reboundsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.4 RPG on the season and 2.7 RPG over the last 10, which is only slightly above the line but not by enough to overcome variance. The value data also leans UNDER on rebounds at 2.5.

assistsOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

His recent assist form is stronger than season baseline, with 2.6 APG over the last 10 and 3.2 APG over the last 5. The value props show a positive edge on assists OVER 2.5, including an 8.2% edge at BetRivers.

threesOVER 2.559%MEDIUM

He averages 3.18 threes per game on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, which is still above the 2.5 line overall. The season profile supports a slight OVER, though the recent dip keeps confidence modest.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 SPG on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. This is a low-variance category relative to scoring.

stocksUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.73 and his last 10 is 0.8, both well below 1.5. Even with a few recent blocks, this is still a high line for his typical production.

turnoversUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He has averaged only 0.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.4 at home, with several recent games at 0 turnovers. The low turnover profile makes the UNDER attractive if this line is available.

prUNDER 14.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds sit at 15.18, but recent scoring has softened and rebounds are modest. With combo props carrying more variance, the UNDER is the safer side.

paUNDER 16.559%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 15.07, and while assists have improved recently, the scoring dip keeps this near the edge. Combo volatility makes the UNDER the more conservative play.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS