Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 3 | 25 | 78% | +36.7% | medium |
| Luka Dončić | 3 | 19 | 53% | +8.4% | medium |
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 16 | 55% | +11.7% | medium |
| Brandon Ingram | 2 | 14 | 22% |
Herbert Jones is averaging 9.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 2.8 APG on the season, with his last-5 line sitting at 10.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.6 APG. The recent scoring bump is modest, and his trend is marked as down, which makes the 9.5 points line feel close to fair rather than a strong over. He has been more productive at home in scoring and steals, but the matchup data also shows a solid history versus Cleveland with 10.0 PPG and 3.4 RPG across 5 games. With no specific defender matchup data to lean on and his stock production remaining the safest category, the clearest angle is on defensive stats rather than a scoring breakout.
No specific defender matchup data is available. Cleveland’s opponent profile shows a 114.81 defensive rating and a scoring_suppression value of -0.121, while three_suppression is 1.263, which does not create a clear positive scoring setup for his perimeter efficiency.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Herbert Jones▼ | Points | 9.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 12 | ✗ |
Herbert Jones▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
Herbert Jones▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 3 | ✓ |
Herbert Jones▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Herbert Jones▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
Herbert Jones▼ | STL+BLK | 2.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 2 | ✗ |
Herbert Jones▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Herbert Jones▼ | PRA | 15.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 18 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest statistical edge in the data because his season average is 1.7 steals and his last-5 average is 2.2. The line sits below both the season and recent production, and his stocks profile is the steadiest part of his fantasy game.
| low |
| De'Aaron Fox | 3 | 13 | 50% | +1.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Donovan Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 60% | 60% |
| Evan Mobley | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Sam Merrill | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Max Strus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 8.98 points and his recent mean is 8.6, both below 9.5. The last-5 scoring of 10.4 is only a small bump and the over is not supported strongly enough to overcome the historical under bias.
He averages 3.58 rebounds for the season and 3.7 over the last 5, which leaves this line right on the edge. With a season home mean of 3.24, the under is slightly safer in a median projection.
His season mean is 2.77 assists and his last-20 mean is 3.1, both above 2.5. The standard deviation is high at 1.71, so confidence stays modest, but the home mean of 2.24 is less important than the overall usage baseline.
He is averaging 1.7 steals on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, with a strong stocks profile overall. Even with variance, a 1.5 line is below his typical production range.
His season average is exactly 0.5 blocks, but the recent mean is only 0.4 and last-10 is 0.3. That makes the under slightly preferable at this number.
He averages 2.19 stocks for the season and 2.4 over the last 20, with 2.6 in the last 5. The combined defensive production is one of his most reliable paths to value.
His season turnover average is 1.4 and recent is 1.4, both below 1.5. That makes the under the cleaner side despite occasional multi-turnover games.
Using season means, his projected PRA is 16.56, but that is inflated by the assist baseline and the combo market carries added variance. Given the conservative over bias warning, the under is the safer lean at this type of line.