AI Model:

Herbert Jones▼

NOP · C

PPG

9.0

RPG

3.6

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

10.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.4

9.0

10.4

RPG+0.4

3.6

4.0

APG-0.2

2.8

2.6

SPG+0.5

1.7

2.2

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

LAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAC: 2 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 2 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 14 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 16 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 8 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 7 pts

LAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAC: 11 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 2.5STAKE

55%

STL

OVER 1.5STAKE

63%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

61%

UNDER 1.5

59%

PRA

UNDER 15.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.0

8.4

RPG

2.9

4.6

APG

2.7

3.6

vs CLE (H2H)5 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

3.4

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	3	25	78%	+36.7%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	19	53%	+8.4%	medium
Cooper Flagg	4	16	55%	+11.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	14	22%

Herbert Jones has a stable floor, but the points ceiling is limited

Herbert Jones is averaging 9.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 2.8 APG on the season, with his last-5 line sitting at 10.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.6 APG. The recent scoring bump is modest, and his trend is marked as down, which makes the 9.5 points line feel close to fair rather than a strong over. He has been more productive at home in scoring and steals, but the matchup data also shows a solid history versus Cleveland with 10.0 PPG and 3.4 RPG across 5 games. With no specific defender matchup data to lean on and his stock production remaining the safest category, the clearest angle is on defensive stats rather than a scoring breakout.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.4(↑ from 9.0)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 3.6)

APG

2.6(→ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Cleveland’s opponent profile shows a 114.81 defensive rating and a scoring_suppression value of -0.121, while three_suppression is 1.263, which does not create a clear positive scoring setup for his perimeter efficiency.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Herbert Jones▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	12	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✓
Herbert Jones▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✓
Herbert Jones▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
Herbert Jones▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Herbert Jones▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Herbert Jones▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10UNDER5%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

3PM2UNDER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x5/1926%▼

3PA5UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/1942%▼

PRA16UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

AST3UNDER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x7/1937%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/1937%▼

P+R12OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)11/1958%▼

P+A12OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/1953%▼

REB3UNDER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)5/1926%▼

STL1UNDER10%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Herbert Jones

Steals OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest statistical edge in the data because his season average is 1.7 steals and his last-5 average is 2.2. The line sits below both the season and recent production, and his stocks profile is the steadiest part of his fantasy game.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
James Harden	1	5	0	0%	0%
Donovan Mitchell	1	2	8	60%	60%
Evan Mobley	1	2	0	0%	0%
Sam Merrill	1	2	0	0%	0%
Max Strus	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.98 points and his recent mean is 8.6, both below 9.5. The last-5 scoring of 10.4 is only a small bump and the over is not supported strongly enough to overcome the historical under bias.

reboundsUNDER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.58 rebounds for the season and 3.7 over the last 5, which leaves this line right on the edge. With a season home mean of 3.24, the under is slightly safer in a median projection.

assistsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.77 assists and his last-20 mean is 3.1, both above 2.5. The standard deviation is high at 1.71, so confidence stays modest, but the home mean of 2.24 is less important than the overall usage baseline.

stealsOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He is averaging 1.7 steals on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, with a strong stocks profile overall. Even with variance, a 1.5 line is below his typical production range.

blocksUNDER 0.557%MEDIUM

His season average is exactly 0.5 blocks, but the recent mean is only 0.4 and last-10 is 0.3. That makes the under slightly preferable at this number.

stocksOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.19 stocks for the season and 2.4 over the last 20, with 2.6 in the last 5. The combined defensive production is one of his most reliable paths to value.

turnoversUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

His season turnover average is 1.4 and recent is 1.4, both below 1.5. That makes the under the cleaner side despite occasional multi-turnover games.

praUNDER 15.557%MEDIUM

Using season means, his projected PRA is 16.56, but that is inflated by the assist baseline and the combo market carries added variance. Given the conservative over bias warning, the under is the safer lean at this type of line.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS