AI Model:

Trey Murphy III▲

NOP · SG

PPG

22.0

RPG

5.7

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

21.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.2

22.0

21.8

RPG+0.7

5.7

6.4

APG+0.9

3.9

4.8

SPG+0.3

1.5

1.8

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

OVER 3.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

3.5

LAC

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAC: 16 pts

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 22 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 28 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 23 pts

LAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAC: 27 pts

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

3PM

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

PTS

UNDER 21.5STAKE

57%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.9

22.4

RPG

4.8

5.1

APG

4.5

4.7

vs CLE (H2H)6 games

PPG

15.0

RPG

2.5

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Wells	4	15	58%	+3.0%	medium
Devin Vassell	4	14	35%	-23.9%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	14	73%	+7.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	44%

Murphy’s scoring and threes remain the strongest angle despite a tougher opponent profile

Trey Murphy III is producing at a steady starter level with 22.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 3.9 APG on the season, and his recent form is right in line at 21.8 PPG over the last 5. His three-point volume is the clearest strength: he averages 3.32 threes per game on the season and 3.8 over the last 5, with minutes holding firm around 35+ per night. The matchup is not ideal for scoring, as Cleveland’s defense shows a 114.81 rating, a -0.121 scoring suppression mark, and a 1.263 three suppression figure, but opponent absences help offset some of that pressure. With no extreme minutes concern and his role intact, the safest lean is on his threes rather than chasing inflated combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.8(→ from 22.0)

RPG

6.4(↑ from 5.7)

APG

4.8(↑ from 3.9)

3PM

3.8(↑ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

Cleveland’s defense profile is the main headwind here, with a 114.81 defensive rating, -0.121 scoring suppression, and 1.263 three suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read is driven by team-level numbers and the available absence context.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Trey Murphy III▼	3PM	3.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	10	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	6	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R27OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Trey Murphy III

Threes OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Murphy’s three-point production is consistently above the line: 3.32 season average and 3.8 over the last 5. The best available value also points the same way, with a 16.5% edge on the OVER at FanDuel and positive edges at multiple other books.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Sam Merrill	2	7	7	50%	58%
Donovan Mitchell	2	4	13	45%	50%
James Harden	1	3	3	33%	50%
Keon Ellis	1	2	2	50%	50%
Darius Garland	1	2	5	67%	83%

threesOVER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.32 threes per game on the season and 3.8 over the last 5, so this line is reachable with his current shot volume. The value board also shows a 16.5% edge at FanDuel and a 13.4% edge at DraftKings on the OVER.

pointsUNDER 21.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 21.97 and recent mean is 21.3, which sits just below this number, and Cleveland’s scoring suppression makes a ceiling outcome less attractive. The opponent history is also lower at 15.0 PPG in 6 games.

reboundsUNDER 5.556%MEDIUM

Murphy’s season rebound average is 5.7, but his recent mean is 5.6 and the matchup data does not strongly support an upgrade. The edge data across books is thin, which keeps confidence modest.

assistsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

He has 3.9 APG on the season and 4.3 over the last 10, with a recent 4.8 APG over the last 5. This is a low-margin prop, but the current role supports a slight lean over.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.87 stocks on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, so the defensive production is meaningful. The variance is still notable, but the baseline volume clears the threshold.

timelineOVER 3.5 PTS