AI Model:

Brook Lopez▲

LAC · C

PPG

7.6

RPG

3.1

APG

1.2

L5 PPG

6.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.4

7.6

6.2

RPG+0.1

3.1

3.2

APG+1.0

1.2

2.2

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.9

1.1

2.0

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 26 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 4 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 3 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 3 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 6 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 12

58%

P+R

UNDER 10.5

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.2

11.1

RPG

4.1

4.3

APG

1.8

vs DAL (H2H)9 games

PPG

9.4

RPG

4.7

APG

0.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	4	25	83%	+41.3%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	19	54%	+10.2%	medium
Donovan Clingan	3	16	56%	-4.5%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	3	16	92%

Lopez’s role is up, but the scoring line still looks playable to the under

Brook Lopez has seen his minutes and production trend up recently, with 9.7 PPG over the last 10 and 10.2 PPG over the last 20 compared with 7.6 PPG for the season. Even so, his last 5 scoring has cooled to 6.2 PPG, and the market has points priced higher than his season baseline in several spots. With teammate absences increasing opportunity but his scoring variance still high, the cleanest angle leans conservative rather than chasing an over.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.2(↓ from 7.6)

RPG

3.2(→ from 3.1)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.2)

BPG

2.0(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Anthony Davis is listed as out, and Dereck Lively II is also out, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. The opponent context still matters because Dallas has a 118.51 defensive rating and the game environment is not especially slow at a 100 pace.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brook Lopez▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	50%	10	✓
Brook Lopez▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%	9	✗
Brook Lopez▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✓
Brook Lopez▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✗
Brook Lopez▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Brook Lopez▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Brook Lopez▼	P+A	12	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	12	✗
Brook Lopez▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA17.5UNDER5%logisticDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.059; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A13UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS10.5OVER2%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

P+R15.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB4.5OVER16%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%No material changes▼

BLK1.5UNDER30%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Line nudged +0.5▼

3PM1.5UNDER10%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+10.3% edgeValue edge changed -0.039; Odds moved materially▼

R+A6.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Brook Lopez

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

This is the strongest available value signal, with multiple books showing an UNDER edge and the model listing a 17.3% edge at BetMGM. Brook Lopez is at 7.6 PPG for the season and only 6.2 PPG over his last 5, so even with extra usage available, the 10.5 line looks too high.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daniel Gafford	2	6	2	33%	33%
Moussa Cisse	1	1	3	100%	100%
Cooper Flagg	2	1	3	25%	25%
Caleb Martin	1	1	0	0%	0%
D'Angelo Russell	1	0	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 10.574%HIGH

Season scoring is 7.6 PPG, and even with an elevated recent role his last 5 is only 6.2 PPG. The provided value data shows UNDER at 10.5 with a 17.3% edge at BetMGM, which supports the fade.

reboundsUNDER 4.571%HIGH

He averages just 3.1 RPG on the season and 3.3 RPG over the last 10, both well below 4.5. The rebound prop is also backed by value data showing a strong UNDER edge across books.

assistsOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His assists have ticked up to 2.2 over the last 5 and 1.8 over the last 10 versus 1.2 for the season. This is a lower-variance angle than points, but the recent minute bump makes the over viable.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.39 made threes for the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with recent volume not showing a clear push above 1.5. The line is close, but the recent trend does not justify an over.

blocksOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 BPG on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The recent block rate makes the over the cleaner defensive stat play.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.68 and his last 20 is 2.0, which clears 1.5 comfortably. Variance is still meaningful, but the combined steal/block profile supports the over.

paUNDER 1258%MEDIUM

Using his season norms, points plus assists project closer to 8.8 than a high teens number, and even the recent 5-game bump does not fully bridge the gap. Because combo props carry more variance, the under is the safer side.

prUNDER 10.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds combine to 10.7, but recent scoring has fallen back to 6.2 PPG while rebounds remain modest at 3.2 RPG. That makes the under slightly preferable, especially given combo-prop volatility.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS