LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

LAC

LA Clippers

34-36 | L10: 5-5

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

23-47 | L10: 2-8

2026-03-21

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

LAC91%

9%DAL

LAC80-80DAL

Key Factors

*Clippers without Kawhi Leonard (28.3 PPG) - questionable (Ankle)
*Mavericks without Anthony Davis (20.4 PPG) - out (Finger)
*Clippers without Ivica Zubac (14.0 PPG) - out ()
*Mavericks without Brandon Williams (12.7 PPG) - out (Concussion)
*Mavericks without D'Angelo Russell (10.2 PPG) - out ()

Key Matchup

Clippers has matchup advantages

DAL Advantages

+ Positional advantages

LAC Advantages

Key Defensive Matchups

LAC Players

Derrick Jones Jr.

Cooper Flagg2g · 8m+0.0%60% eFGlow

D'Angelo Russell1g · 5m+0.0%50% eFGlow

Brandon Williams1g · 2m+0.0%0% eFGlow

John Collins

Naji Marshall2g · 9m+0.0%50% eFGlow

Cooper Flagg3g · 6m+0.0%71% eFGmedium

The Clippers enter on a 4-game losing streak at 34-36, while Dallas is 23-47 and has dropped 8 of its last 10, so both teams are trying to stop the slide rather than chase momentum. Dallas has had to play through multiple absences, while the Clippers are also managing a questionable Kawhi Leonard, making this more about available usage than record-driven urgency.

Team Comparison

LACDAL

Key Players

He is averaging 28.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 3.6 APG on the season, but his injury status is Questionable with a left ankle issue. His last 5 are 31.6 PPG, but that is above his season mean and carries regression risk, especially with a 4-game losing streak limiting late-game certainty.

ProjectedPTS: 19.8-26.4-33REB: 3.2-6.2-9.2AST: 1.1-3.5-5.9

Darius Garland▼Questionable

Garland is at 18.2 PPG and 6.8 APG for the season, but his last 5 jump to 21.4 PPG with 7.2 APG. The production is strong, yet his trend is marked down and his last 5 scoring sits well above season pace, so the points market carries more regression risk than the assist market.

ProjectedPTS: 10.8-17.4-24REB: 0-2.1-5.1AST: 4.6-7-9.4

Jones is producing 11.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 1.4 APG on the season, with a recent defensive spike in his last 5 where he has 2.2 stocks. His scoring has been modest at 9.6 PPG over the last 5, which makes his under angles more appealing than chasing a points over.

ProjectedPTS: 2.8-9.4-16REB: 0.3-3.3-6.3AST: 0-1.7-4.1

Collins has a season line of 13.8 PPG and 5.3 RPG, and his last 5 show 14.4 PPG with 6.8 RPG. The rebounding trend is stronger than the scoring trend, so the board points more toward modest upside on boards than a clean scoring over.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Kawhi Leonard▼ LAC	Points	27.5williamhill_us	UNDER	74%HIGH	30%	+23.1%	34	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼ LAC	Points	15.5betmgm	UNDER	68%HIGH	70%	+24.4%	15	✓
Brook Lopez▼ LAC	Points	10.5betmgm	UNDER	71%HIGH	50%	+17.3%	10	✓
John Collins▼ LAC	Points	15.5betmgm	UNDER	67%HIGH	70%	+18.3%	8	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼ DAL	Assists	5.5betmgm	UNDER	69%HIGH	80%	+16.1%	9	✗

Model Comparison

2 models · 10 props compared

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Props Shown

10 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Derrick Jones Jr.

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

His season scoring is 11.1 PPG and his last 5 are 9.6 PPG, but the line is 15.5. That’s a 4.4-point gap to season average and a 24.4% edge, making it the strongest value on the board.

Kawhi Leonard

Points UNDER 27.5HIGH

The model shows a 23.1% edge to the UNDER with 45.44 EV per $100. Even though he has 31.6 PPG over his last 5, that hot stretch sits above his 28.3 season average and comes with a questionable ankle designation.

Brook Lopez

Points UNDER 10.5HIGH

Lopez is scoring 7.6 PPG on the season and 6.2 PPG over his last 5, so 10.5 is a clear step above his current baseline. The 17.3% edge and 32.32 EV per $100 support the under.

Parlay of the Game

Derrick Jones Jr. — Points UNDER 15.5Leg 1

Ryan Nembhard — Assists UNDER 5.5Leg 2

Brook Lopez — Points UNDER 10.5Leg 3

These legs all align with season-level production that sits below the listed lines, and they avoid over-reliance on volatile combo markets. They also fit the same game script: Dallas missing key creators and the Clippers leaning on lower-usage finishing from role players rather than inflated scoring spikes.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Kawhi Leonard is Questionable with a left ankle injury. Dallas remains without Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell, Dereck Lively II, and Kyrie Irving; the Clippers remain without Bradley Beal and Ivica Zubac.

Player Deep Dives

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.