Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 3 | 18 | 67% | +16.2% | medium |
| Kevin Durant | 3 | 14 | 31% | -25.5% | medium |
| Toumani Camara | 3 | 13 | 50% | -14.1% | medium |
| Stephon Castle | 2 | 13 | 63% |
Kawhi Leonard is averaging 28.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 3.6 APG on the season, with his last 10 still strong at 29.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG despite a listed down trend. His recent form shows high-end scoring volatility, including a 45-point game, but his season-to-recent minutes have dipped from 32.4 to 30.1, which matters for overs. The opponent context is mixed: he has averaged 24.18 PPG in 11 games vs this team, while the defense data points to a 118.51 defensive rating and scoring suppression of 0.725. With Bradley Beal and Ivica Zubac out for his team, usage support is there, but the best pre-calculated value still sits on the points under.
There is no specific defender matchup data for Kawhi Leonard in the provided key_defenders list beyond the named players and their limited minutes allowed. The opponent profile shows a 118.51 defensive rating, pace of 100, and 0.725 scoring suppression, which is enough to keep the scoring outlook from getting too aggressive.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Points | 27.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 30% | 34 | ✗ |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 3 | ✓ |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 5 | ✗ |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 5 | ✓ |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Steals | 1.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 100% | 1 | ✗ |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | STL+BLK | 3.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 100% | 3 | ✓ |
Kawhi Leonard▼ | P+R | 34.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 37 | ✗ |
This is the strongest value on the board: the best available points model data shows a 23.1% edge on the under with 45.44 EV per 100 at the listed book. His season mean is 28.3, but his head-to-head average of 24.18 PPG against this opponent and the slower, suppression-heavy environment support a lower projection.
| low |
| LeBron James | 4 | 12 | 50% | -0.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 2 | 5 | 6 | 33% | 33% |
| Naji Marshall | 1 | 2 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Max Christie | 1 | 1 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
| Ryan Nembhard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Klay Thompson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
The season mean is 28.3, but the opponent history is lower at 24.18 PPG across 11 games and the game environment includes a 118.51 defensive rating with 0.725 scoring suppression. Value data shows a strong under lean at this line with a 23.1% edge and 45.44 EV per 100 at the best available book.
His season mean is 6.38 and last 10 is 6.3, so 6.5 is a tight number with no strong over cushion. Variance is moderate, but the recent role has not pushed rebounds meaningfully above baseline.
Kawhi is at 3.6 APG on the season and 3.3 over the last 10, so the market number is close to his core range. With recent games often landing at 0 to 5 assists, the under is slightly safer.
He averages 2.6 made threes per game on the season and 2.4 over the last 10, which supports a narrow over lean at 2.5. The edge is small, so confidence stays modest.
He averages 2.0 steals on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, both comfortably above 1.5. This is one of the cleaner volume-based overs on his card.
He averages just 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.0 over the last 5 and last 10. That makes the under the more natural side unless the line is extremely favorable.
His season stocks average is 2.43 and recent form is 1.8, both below a 3.5 line. Combo volatility is high, so this needs a much stronger production spike than his current baseline.
Using season averages, points plus rebounds come out to 34.7, but the actual market context is softer because rebounds are only 6.4 and the opponent history lowers scoring output. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is the conservative stance.