Kawhi’s scoring ceiling is intact, but the market leans to the under

The season mean is 28.3, but the opponent history is lower at 24.18 PPG across 11 games and the game environment includes a 118.51 defensive rating with 0.725 scoring suppression. Value data shows a strong under lean at this line with a 23.1% edge and 45.44 EV per 100 at the best available book.

His season mean is 6.38 and last 10 is 6.3, so 6.5 is a tight number with no strong over cushion. Variance is moderate, but the recent role has not pushed rebounds meaningfully above baseline.

Kawhi is at 3.6 APG on the season and 3.3 over the last 10, so the market number is close to his core range. With recent games often landing at 0 to 5 assists, the under is slightly safer.

He averages 2.6 made threes per game on the season and 2.4 over the last 10, which supports a narrow over lean at 2.5. The edge is small, so confidence stays modest.

He averages 2.0 steals on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, both comfortably above 1.5. This is one of the cleaner volume-based overs on his card.

He averages just 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.0 over the last 5 and last 10. That makes the under the more natural side unless the line is extremely favorable.

His season stocks average is 2.43 and recent form is 1.8, both below a 3.5 line. Combo volatility is high, so this needs a much stronger production spike than his current baseline.

Using season averages, points plus rebounds come out to 34.7, but the actual market context is softer because rebounds are only 6.4 and the opponent history lowers scoring output. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is the conservative stance.