AI Model:

Max Christie—

DAL · SG

PPG

12.5

RPG

3.3

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.7

12.5

11.8

RPG-1.7

3.3

1.6

APG-0.9

2.1

1.2

SPG+0.4

0.6

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

CHA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHA: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 12 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 12 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 13 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5STAKE

78%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

74%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

71%

3PM

OVER 2.5STAKE

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

69%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

67%

P+R

UNDER 17.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.9

10.8

RPG

2.7

3.3

APG

1.4

2.1

vs LAC (H2H)10 games

PPG

6.1

RPG

3.1

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Trey Murphy III	3	17	50%	+1.2%	medium
Michael Porter Jr.	3	16	66%	+10.2%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	16	42%	-2.6%	medium
Stephen Curry	2	13	60%

Christie’s minutes are secure, but the market is leaning too optimistic on scoring

Max Christie is in steady starting-minute territory, averaging 29.4 MPG on the season and 28.4 MPG over his last 10. His scoring has cooled to 9.6 PPG over the last 10 compared with 12.5 PPG for the season, and his assist and rebound rates remain modest. The matchup data is mixed: his history vs this opponent is just 6.1 PPG and 0.5 APG in 10 games, but the opponent is missing Ivica Zubac and Bradley Beal, which can loosen the environment overall. With Dallas also missing multiple rotation pieces, Christie’s role stays intact, but the clearest edge is still on the under for his points relative to the current market.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↓ from 12.5)

RPG

1.6(↓ from 3.3)

APG

1.2(↓ from 2.1)

3PM

2.6(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data. The opponent is allowing a pace of 100 with a def rating of 112.86, and their three suppression number is 1.029, while their key defender list includes Derrick Jones Jr. and Kawhi Leonard without enough usage context to project a specific matchup edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Max Christie▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	100%	7	✓
Max Christie▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	80%	0	✓
Max Christie▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	90%	4	✓
Max Christie▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	1	✗
Max Christie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Max Christie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
Max Christie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Max Christie▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	7	✓
Max Christie▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	11	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

PRA15.5UNDER54%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1.5UNDER6%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

3PA6UNDER46%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)8/2040%▼

P+R12.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (6/20)9/2045%▼

P+A10.5OVER0%gbt_paAvoid (6/20)12/2060%▼

REB2.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)13/2065%+5.3% edge▼

AST1OVER3%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Max Christie

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Christie’s season scoring average is 12.5, his last-10 mark is 9.6, and his head-to-head history vs this opponent is only 6.1 PPG across 10 games. The current market line is above his recent production, and the data gives a stronger case for regression than for an over push.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
James Harden	2	7	16	50%	60%
Bogdan Bogdanović	1	5	5	50%	63%
Kris Dunn	2	4	7	67%	83%
Darius Garland	1	4	7	60%	70%
Derrick Jones Jr.	2	3	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 13.578%HIGH

He’s at 12.5 PPG on the season but only 9.6 over his last 10, and his season vs-opponent scoring is just 6.1 PPG in 10 games. The current line sits above both his season and recent production, making the under the cleaner side.

assistsUNDER 2.574%HIGH

Christie averages 2.1 APG for the season and 1.4 APG over his last 10, with a recent stretch that includes several 0-1 assist games. The 2.5 line is above his recent baseline, and his assist profile carries high variance.

reboundsUNDER 4.571%HIGH

He averages 3.3 RPG on the season and 2.6 RPG over his last 10, both well below 4.5. Even with starting minutes, his rebound ceiling has been inconsistent.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

Christie averages 2.34 made threes per game on the season and 2.2 over his last 10, so he’s right in the range to clear 2.5. Confidence stays moderate because the recent volume has been variable, but the median output supports the over.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 SPG on the season and 0.7 over his last 10, with 1.0 SPG over his last 5. The line is low, but steals remain volatile so confidence should stay modest.

blocksUNDER 0.569%MEDIUM

Christie averages only 0.3 BPG on the season and 0.2 over his last 10. A 0.5 line is above his typical block rate, so the under is preferred.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season average for stocks is 0.88, and his last 10 is 0.9, both below 1.5. This is a volatile combo because steals and blocks can swing, but the baseline still points under.

paUNDER 15.567%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, points plus assists projects to 14.6, and his recent form is even lower at 11.0 combined over the last 10. The combo line is higher than both baselines, and combo props add variance.

prUNDER 17.564%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds average is 15.8, while his last 10 is 12.2. The line is sitting above both marks, which supports the under.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS