AI Model:

Ryan Nembhard▲

DAL · PG

PPG

6.3

RPG

1.9

APG

4.9

L5 PPG

5.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.5

6.3

5.8

RPG+1.1

1.9

3.0

APG+1.9

4.9

6.8

SPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

CHA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHA: 6 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 5 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 0 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 0 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 8 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 2 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 8 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

UNDER 2.5BETMGM

71%

R+A

OVER 9.5

57%

P+A

OVER 17.5STAKE

56%

3PM

OVER 0.5

52%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

50%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.4

3.6

RPG

1.8

2.1

APG

5.8

3.4

vs LAC (H2H)1 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

1.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Walter Clayton Jr.	4	11	50%	-3.5%	medium
Tim Hardaway Jr.	4	9	20%	-21.0%	medium
Isaiah Collier	4	9	50%	-1.0%	medium
Spencer Jones	4	8	83%

Playmaking opportunity stays elevated, but scoring remains capped

Ryan Nembhard’s role is supported by a major absences-driven usage boost, with Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell, Dereck Lively II, and Kyrie Irving all out for Dallas. His season line is 6.3 PPG, 1.9 RPG, and 4.9 APG, and his last 5 show the biggest swing in creation at 6.8 APG in 23.2 MPG. The scoring profile is still modest, especially with his recent 4.8 PPG over the last 10 and 4.5 PPG over the last 20, so the better angle is assists rather than points. The matchup environment is not a clear boost for scoring, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defender note.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.8(↓ from 6.3)

APG

6.8(↑ from 4.9)

RPG

3.0(↑ from 1.9)

Stocks

0.6(↑ from 0.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The only listed key defender note is Kawhi Leonard with minimal minute context, so the safer read is to lean on Nembhard’s role and the game environment rather than a named on-ball matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ryan Nembhard▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	13	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	74%HIGH	2/2	20%	9	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	60%	5	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	R+A	9.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	14	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	10%	22	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	50%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS6UNDER12%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)7/1741%▼

PRA14UNDER11%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1741%▼

P+A11UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)8/1747%▼

REB3UNDER38%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)5/1729%▼

3PA2UNDER29%gbtAvoid (6/20)OVER 3x6/1735%▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/1741%▼

AST5UNDER22%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)UNDER 6x4/1724%▼

P+R8.5OVER0%gbt_prAvoid (5/20)OVER 3x9/1753%▼

Featured Pick

Ryan Nembhard

Assists OVER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest blend of form and role. He is at 4.9 APG on the season, 6.8 APG over the last 5, and his team absences point to more creation chances, which makes the over more attractive than his points or combo markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Darius Garland	1	3	5	67%	83%
Kris Dunn	1	3	2	50%	50%
Derrick Jones Jr.	1	2	0	0%	0%
Chris Paul	1	1	0	0%	0%
James Harden	1	1	7	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.572%HIGH

His season scoring is 6.3 PPG and his last 10 are only 4.8 PPG, below the 7.5 line. With recent low-volume scoring and a modest 5.8 PPG over the last 5, the under fits the broader sample better than the short hot stretch.

assistsOVER 5.574%HIGH

He has a 4.9 APG season average, 6.8 APG over the last 5, and 5.45 APG at home. With multiple teammate absences increasing handling responsibility, the over on a 5.5 line is the cleaner play despite variance.

reboundsUNDER 2.571%HIGH

His season average is 1.9 RPG, and the value model also favors the under at 2.5. Even with 3.0 RPG over the last 5, the longer sample still points below this line.

raOVER 9.557%MEDIUM

He averages 6.8 assists plus 3.0 rebounds over the last 5, which supports this combo, but combo props are high-variance. The season baseline is still only 6.8 combined rebounds and assists, so this stays a cautious lean.

paOVER 17.556%MEDIUM

His recent playmaking surge gives him a path to clear 17.5 points + assists, especially with the extra ball-handling role. But with points still trending low, this is less comfortable than the assists-only market.

threesOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.88 made threes per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 20, so a 0.5 line is reachable. The recent volume is modest, so this is only a slight lean.

stealsOVER 0.550%MEDIUM

He averages 0.3 steals on the season, but 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.7 over the last 10. Because the base rate is low and volatility is high, confidence remains limited.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS