AI Model:

Derrick Jones Jr.▲

LAC · SF

PPG

11.1

RPG

3.1

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

9.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.5

11.1

9.6

RPG+0.5

3.1

3.6

APG+0.8

1.4

2.2

SPG+0.2

1.0

1.2

BPG-0.1

1.1

1.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 12 pts

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 16 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 12 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 10 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 2 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 10 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 4 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 22 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5

63%

REB

OVER 3

58%

AST

OVER 1.5

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

67%

BLK

OVER 1

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

62%

UNDER 1

64%

P+R

UNDER 14.5

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.5

11.2

RPG

3.4

3.6

APG

1.3

1.9

vs DAL (H2H)12 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

4.2

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Devin Booker	3	12	38%	-17.4%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	11	38%	-13.2%	medium
Trey Murphy III	3	10	83%	+16.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	10	17%

Usage boost helps, but scoring against Dallas is still a tough ask

Derrick Jones Jr. is trending up with season averages of 11.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 1.4 APG, and his last-10 line has held above that at 11.6 PPG with 30.6 MPG. The role is supported by teammate absences from Bradley Beal and Ivica Zubac, while Dallas is also missing multiple rotation pieces, which can keep his minutes stable. Even so, his head-to-head production vs this opponent is just 8.0 PPG across 12 games, and the matchup data points to a defense that has limited scoring. The cleaner angle is his all-around activity rather than chasing an inefficient points ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.6(↓ from 11.1)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 3.1)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.4)

Stocks

2.2(→ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed opponents, so no specific defender matchup data. Dallas has a 118.51 defensive rating and a 0.725 scoring suppression mark, which leans against a big scoring night.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	15	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Rebounds	3	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Blocks	1	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER14%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%+6.5% edge▼

REB3.5OVER28%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%+6.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA13.5OVER2%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%+5.9% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.182▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A11OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Derrick Jones Jr.

Points UNDER 11.5MEDIUM

His season average is 11.1 PPG, but the head-to-head sample is only 8.0 PPG across 12 games, and Dallas has the stronger suppression profile in the data. The recent 22-point outlier is enough to keep confidence from getting too high, but the median outcome still points slightly below the line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cooper Flagg	2	8	6	60%	60%
D'Angelo Russell	1	5	4	50%	50%
Brandon Williams	1	2	0	0%	0%
Max Christie	1	2	0	0%	0%
Naji Marshall	1	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 11.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.05 PPG, but vs this opponent he has averaged only 8.0 PPG in 12 games. Dallas also carries a strong scoring suppression mark, making the under slightly safer than a chase on recent volatility.

reboundsOVER 358%MEDIUM

He has averaged 3.8 RPG over the last 5 and 3.5 RPG over the last 20, with a 4.166666666666667 RPG mark in 12 games vs this opponent. The minutes are also stable around 30+ per game.

assistsOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.37 APG, but the last-5 is 2.2 APG and recent minutes have climbed to 30.6 MPG. With teammate absences increasing usage, a modest over is playable.

threesUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He is at 1.21 made threes per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 5, which sits below a 1.5 line. The away split is only 1.0 made threes per game, adding support to the under.

blocksOVER 160%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 blocks per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with solid defensive activity in recent games. The season standard deviation is manageable relative to the mean, but this remains a higher-variance category.

stocksOVER 262%MEDIUM

He averages 2.08 stocks on the season and 2.7 over the last 10, with a 2.4 mark over the last 20. That steady defensive play gives the over some support, though volatility keeps confidence in the moderate range.

turnoversUNDER 164%MEDIUM

He is at just 0.8 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 0.8 over the last 10, with season turnover volume also low. This is one of the cleaner under angles on the board.

prUNDER 14.556%MEDIUM

His season profile of 11.1 points and 3.1 rebounds projects near 14.2 PR, but his recent scoring dip keeps this close to the number. Because combo props are more volatile, the under is preferred if forced to play it.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS