AI Model:

Naji Marshall▲

DAL · SF

PPG

14.9

RPG

4.8

APG

3.1

L5 PPG

16.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

14.9

16.6

RPG+1.0

4.8

5.8

APG+1.7

3.1

4.8

SPG-0.2

1.0

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

MEM

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MEM: 4 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 6 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 13 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 8 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 17 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 32 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 4 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

71%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

69%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

P+R

UNDER 21.5STAKE

74%

P+A

UNDER 18.5STAKE

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.0

15.7

RPG

6.0

3.9

APG

3.5

3.9

vs LAC (H2H)17 games

PPG

10.1

RPG

3.7

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	18	83%	+15.9%	medium
Deni Avdija	3	16	43%	-7.9%	medium
Jamal Murray	4	14	89%	+27.8%	medium
Keyonte George	4	13	80%

Usage boost at home, but the Clippers matchup keeps the ceiling in check

Naji Marshall has a solid season baseline at 14.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 3.1 APG over 29.4 MPG, with his recent form mixed: 16.6 PPG over the last 5 but only 12.8 PPG over the last 10. The absences on Dallas should keep him involved, and his home splits are slightly better at 17.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 3.5 APG in 31.8 MPG. Still, this is a tougher scoring environment because his head-to-head output vs this opponent is only 10.1 PPG in 17 games, and the opponent defense metrics show a 112.86 defensive rating with three-point suppression at 1.029. The recent sample is volatile enough that the safer angle is to lean under on inflated scoring or combo numbers rather than chase the hot last-5.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.6(↑ from 14.9)

RPG

5.8(↑ from 4.8)

APG

4.8(↑ from 3.1)

STL

0.8(↓ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile is not especially soft for scoring, with a 112.86 defensive rating and three-point suppression at 1.029, while Marshall's 17-game history vs this opponent is only 10.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 1.8 APG in 22.5 MPG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Naji Marshall▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	70%	28	✗
Naji Marshall▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✓
Naji Marshall▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Naji Marshall▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Naji Marshall▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	90%	2	✗
Naji Marshall▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Naji Marshall▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%	30	✗
Naji Marshall▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	32	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5OVER22%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.089▼

PTS14.5OVER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.045▼

REB3.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.072▼

P+A20.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST3.5UNDER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

P+R20.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Naji Marshall

Points UNDER 15.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: the value feed shows UNDER 15.5 as the best side with a 9.6% edge and positive EV. Marshall's season average is 14.9 PPG, and his 17-game production vs this opponent drops to 10.1 PPG, so the line is slightly too high even with Dallas absences boosting usage.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
James Harden	2	13	18	64%	82%
John Collins	2	4	8	60%	60%
Kawhi Leonard	1	4	10	100%	113%
Darius Garland	1	3	6	67%	67%
Bogdan Bogdanović	1	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 15.578%HIGH

Season mean is 14.9 PPG and the best value data points to UNDER 15.5 with a 9.6% edge and 18.89 EV per 100. The last-5 at 16.6 PPG is only a modest bump, while his 17-game vs-opponent scoring is just 10.1 PPG.

reboundsUNDER 5.571%HIGH

He averages 4.8 RPG on the season and 4.94 RPG at home, both below 5.5. The last-5 rebound surge to 5.8 comes with high variance, and his last-10 is only 3.8 RPG.

assistsOVER 3.554%MEDIUM

Marshall's season APG is 3.1, but his recent mean is 3.9 and last-5 is 4.8, with Dallas absences supporting a higher ball-handling load. This is still a volatile category, so confidence stays moderate.

threesOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.83 threes per game on the season and 0.84 at home, so 0.5 is a modest bar. The profile supports at least one make more often than not despite only 29.9% from three.

stealsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, which is below a 1.5 line. Even with solid defensive activity, this prop needs a spike game to clear.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.12, with blocks at just 0.1 and steals at 1.0. A 1.5 line asks for a ceiling outcome that his normal production does not support.

prUNDER 21.574%HIGH

He sits at 19.7 PR on the season using 14.9 PPG and 4.8 RPG, which is below 21.5. The recent form is noisy, but the matchup history and lower season baseline favor the under.

paUNDER 18.568%MEDIUM

His season P+A is 18.0, and the last-10 scoring dip to 12.8 PPG makes the over less attractive. With standard deviation elevated in points and assists, this combo prop is too volatile to force over.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS