AI Model:

John Collins▲

LAC · PF

PPG

13.8

RPG

5.3

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

14.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.6

13.8

14.4

RPG+1.5

5.3

6.8

APG+0.6

1.0

1.6

SPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

BPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

MIN

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs MIN: 15 pts

HOU

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs HOU: 17 pts

HOU

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs HOU: 12 pts

DEN

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs DEN: 11 pts

LAL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs LAL: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NOP: 15 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 10 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 18 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 18 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

83%

REB

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

72%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL

OVER 0.5

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

P+R

UNDER 16.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 13.5STAKE

78%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.8

16.1

RPG

6.9

5.2

APG

1.6

1.2

vs DAL (H2H)14 games

PPG

19.9

RPG

8.4

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	13	50%	-22.1%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	10	63%	-13.7%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	10	20%	-35.4%	low
Dominick Barlow	2	10	80%

Collins’ scoring is efficient, but the market is pricing in a modest night

John Collins is trending up overall, with his last 10 at 13.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 1.4 APG versus season marks of 13.8, 5.3, and 1.0. His recent rebounding spike is supported by a few strong games, but his home scoring profile is only 12.8 PPG, and the available points markets are already sitting in the mid-teens. The opponent context is mixed: his 14-game history vs Dallas is strong at 19.86 PPG and 8.36 RPG, but this matchup also has a 118.51 opponent defensive rating and a 0.725 scoring suppression indicator. With teammate absences opening usage but the prop market still favoring the under on points, the best angle is to stay conservative on scoring and lean into lower-volume stat outcomes.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.4(→ from 13.8)

RPG

6.8(↑ from 5.3)

APG

1.6(↑ from 1.0)

Stocks

1.6(→ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile shows a 118.51 defensive rating and 0.725 scoring suppression, which supports caution on high-end scoring outcomes despite Collins’ strong history vs this team.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
John Collins▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	2/2	50%	8	✓
John Collins▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	3	✓
John Collins▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	0	✗
John Collins▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
John Collins▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
John Collins▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
John Collins▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
John Collins▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	11	✓
John Collins▼	P+A	13.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	30%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5OVER35%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 4x14/2070%+19.5% edge▼

REB5.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)13/2065%+15.5% edge▼

PRA24UNDER36%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA3UNDER33%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x12/2060%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST1OVER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

3PA2.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM1UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM1UNDER39%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

John Collins

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the clearest market read: his season scoring is 13.8 PPG, last 10 is 13.9, and his home split is 12.8 PPG. The available value data also points to the under at multiple books, making this the strongest combination of form, price, and edge.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Naji Marshall	2	9	11	43%	50%
Cooper Flagg	3	6	13	71%	71%
Caleb Martin	2	5	0	0%	0%
Daniel Gafford	2	1	2	100%	100%
Max Christie	2	1	6	29%	43%

pointsUNDER 14.583%HIGH

Season scoring is 13.8 PPG, the last 10 is 13.9, and his home split is only 12.8 PPG. The market’s under is also supported by value data showing a strong under lean at 15.5, so 14.5 is still playable to the under.

reboundsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.3 RPG and his last 10 is 6.5, so this is close to fair rather than a clear over. With a 2.74 season standard deviation and the book already shading the under, the edge is slim but the under remains the safer side.

assistsOVER 0.572%HIGH

Collins averages 1.0 APG on the season and 1.4 APG over his last 10, far above a 0.5 line. Even with a modest season assist profile, this threshold is low enough to favor the over.

threesOVER 0.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.35 made threes per game this season and 1.0 over the last 5. With a 0.5 line, even accounting for variance, the over is supported by his volume and efficiency from deep.

stealsOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.9 steals per game and 1.0 over the last 10, clearing a half-steal threshold. The recent form is steady enough to back the over despite normal defensive variance.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 10, which keeps this in play. The recent dip lowers confidence, but the season baseline still supports the over at 0.5.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

Combining 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks gives him a 1.65 stocks average on the season. That clears the 1.5 threshold, though the category is naturally volatile so confidence stays moderate.

prUNDER 16.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds combine to 19.1, but this line sits near a range where his recent scoring has been just average and rebounds have carried more of the load. Given the standard deviation on both categories and over-bias caution, the under is acceptable if minutes stay around the mid-20s.

paUNDER 13.578%HIGH

He averages 13.8 points and 1.0 assist for 14.8 PA on the season, while last 10 is 15.3. The market line is close, but with assists still low-volume and points already projected conservatively, the under is slightly safer.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS