AI Model:

Cooper Flagg—

DAL · PF

PPG

20.1

RPG

6.5

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

20.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.5

20.1

20.6

RPG-0.7

6.5

5.8

APG+2.5

4.5

7.0

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

PHX

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs PHX: 27 pts

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 17 pts

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 13 pts

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 25 pts

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 27 pts

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 17 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5STAKE

56%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

UNDER 1.5BETMGM

70%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

57%

OVER 3

59%

P+R

UNDER 29.5STAKE

55%

P+A

UNDER 27.5STAKE

74%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

26.0

19.2

RPG

6.0

6.8

APG

4.4

5.3

vs LAC (H2H)2 games

PPG

25.5

RPG

6.5

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Herbert Jones	4	20	65%	+11.4%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	17	47%	-7.4%	medium
Tari Eason	3	14	46%	-14.1%	medium
Peyton Watson	4	12	75%

Home boost, but assists may be the safer fade

Cooper Flagg is in a strong spot overall with Dallas at home, where he averages 26.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 4.4 APG in 8 games. His season scoring sits at 20.1 PPG, while his recent form has been steady at 20.6 PPG over the last 5 and 19.5 over the last 10, so there is not a strong hot-streak case to force overs. The biggest role-change factor is the absences on Dallas, especially Anthony Davis (out), Kyrie Irving (out), and Dereck Lively II (out), which should keep Flagg heavily involved, but his assist line is inflated relative to his season 4.5 APG. Against LA Clippers, he has averaged 25.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG in 2 meetings, with 43 MPG in that sample, but the opponent profile still suggests scoring is more viable than playmaking.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.6(→ from 20.1)

RPG

5.8(↓ from 6.5)

APG

7.0(↑ from 4.5)

Stocks

2.0(→ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

The Clippers have a 112.86 defensive rating and the game context shows a pace of 100 with scoring suppression of -0.57. There is no specific defender matchup data for this player, so the projection leans on team-level defense plus the listed opponent absences.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cooper Flagg▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	18	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	40%	8	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	Turnovers	3	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✗
Cooper Flagg▼	P+R	29.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	28	✓
Cooper Flagg▼	P+A	27.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%	26	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A12OVER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)11/2055%▼

PRA40.5UNDER23%gbt_praAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x6/2030%+15.0% edge▼

PTS26.5UNDER28%gbt_pointsAvoid (5/20)OVER 2x6/2030%+16.3% edge▼

AST5.5UNDER24%gbt_assistsAvoid (5/20)10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER23%gbt_stealsAvoid (5/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

3PA3UNDER28%gbtAvoid (5/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

P+A29UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (5/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

REB6.5UNDER26%gbt_reboundsAvoid (4/20)8/2040%+11.0% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER4%gbt_three_pmAvoid (4/20)OVER 2x5/2025%+11.5% edge▼

FTM5UNDER21%gbtAvoid (4/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

FTA6UNDER15%gbtAvoid (4/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

P+R30UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (4/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

BLK1UNDER43%gbt_blocksAvoid (3/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Cooper Flagg

Assists UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the slate because the DraftKings model shows an 11.3% edge to the under and a positive EV of 19.53 per 100. His season average is 4.53 APG, and while his last 5 is elevated at 7.0, that short-run spike is not enough to override the season baseline and the high-variance warning on combo creation.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Derrick Jones Jr.	2	10	6	50%	50%
John Collins	2	8	9	67%	75%
Nicolas Batum	2	5	2	20%	20%
Ivica Zubac	2	3	14	88%	88%
Kobe Brown	1	3	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 22.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.1 PPG and the last 10 is 19.5, both below 22.5. Home form is better at 26.0 PPG, but the recent trend is not enough to fully justify an over at this number.

reboundsUNDER 7.558%MEDIUM

He averages 6.5 RPG for the season and 6.7 over the last 10, both short of 7.5. The last 5 is 5.8 RPG and his away/home split does not create a strong push over this line.

assistsUNDER 5.572%HIGH

This is the strongest fade on the board: his season mean is 4.53 APG and the value data shows a 11.3% edge to the under at DraftKings. Even with last-5 at 7.0 APG, the season baseline and his 3.4 TO last 5 make this a high-variance pass on the over.

threesUNDER 1.570%HIGH

He averages just 0.98 made threes per game on the season and only 0.5 over the last 5. The opponent context also does not help, with three-point suppression listed at 1.029.

stealsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.1 steals, but he is at only 0.8 over the last 5 and 0.9 over the last 10. A 1.5 line is aggressive for a player with this level of game-to-game volatility.

blocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 blocks per game on the season, with recent marks of 1.2 and 1.3, but 1.5 still sits above his typical production. The recent spike is real, but the line is still a touch high.

stocksUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 2.05 and the last 10 is 2.2, which leaves limited cushion for a 2.5 threshold. His defensive playmaking is good, but not enough to call the over with confidence.

turnoversOVER 359%MEDIUM

He has 3.4 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 3.1 over the last 10, which points to elevated ball-handling volume. With multiple teammates out, the usage load can keep this number live to the over.

prUNDER 29.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds come out to 26.6, below 29.5, and the combo prop adds variance. The recent form is solid, but the season baseline still leans under.

paUNDER 27.574%HIGH

This aligns with the value data on assists and stays conservative on a volatile combo. His season points plus assists total is 24.6, well below 27.5, and the under is reinforced by the assist fade.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS