AI Model:

Darius Garland▼

LAC · PG

PPG

18.2

RPG

2.4

APG

6.8

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

18.2

21.4

RPG-0.8

2.4

1.6

APG+0.4

6.8

7.2

SPG+0.7

0.9

1.6

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

19.5

UTA

2026-01-12

2026-01-12 vs UTA: 23 pts

PHI

2026-01-14

2026-01-14 vs PHI: 20 pts

GSW

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs GSW: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs IND: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 23 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 25 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 13 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+R

UNDER 20.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.5

17.6

RPG

1.7

2.1

APG

7.3

6.3

vs DAL (H2H)7 games

PPG

16.3

RPG

3.4

APG

9.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donte DiVincenzo	3	14	100%	+28.5%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	11	70%	+3.5%	medium
Gary Trent Jr.	2	10	42%	-13.2%	low
Andrew Nembhard	4	10	72%

Garland’s scoring leans soft, assists stay stable

Darius Garland’s season line sits at 18.2 points and 6.8 assists, with recent production showing a small scoring bump to 21.4 PPG over the last 5 but a broader downtrend in the last 10 and last 20 samples. The matchup environment is mixed: Dallas has a 118.51 defensive rating and Garland’s head-to-head scoring against this opponent is only 16.29 PPG across 7 games, though he has averaged 9 assists in that span. His own turnover rate is elevated at 3.1 per game in the last 10, which adds risk to combo overs. With the market pricing his points around 18.5-20.5 and value data leaning strongly under, the cleaner angle is fading scoring and being selective on assists.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↑ from 18.2)

APG

7.2(→ from 6.8)

RPG

1.6(↓ from 2.4)

Stocks

1.6(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Dallas shows a 118.51 defensive rating with 100 pace and a scoring suppression mark of 0.725, while Garland’s scoring history vs this opponent is only 16.285714285714285 PPG across 7 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Darius Garland▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	30%	41	✗
Darius Garland▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	11	✓
Darius Garland▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	3	✓
Darius Garland▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	8	✓
Darius Garland▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Darius Garland▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	44	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS20.5OVER11%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.035; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

REB2.5UNDER33%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+14.0% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.342▼

AST7.5OVER2%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.307▼

PRA30.5OVER5%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.189; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

3PM2.5OVER34%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Darius Garland

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

This is the clearest edge in the data: the value feed lists UNDER 19.5 at a 24.1% edge, and Garland’s season mean is 18.2 with 18.6 over the last 20. His recent 21.4 PPG last 5 is an uptick, but the broader sample and opponent history both point to regression below the line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cooper Flagg	1	1	2	25%	25%
Daniel Gafford	1	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 19.584%HIGH

Value data shows UNDER with a 24.1% edge at 19.5 and Garland’s season mean is 18.2, below the line. His last 20 average is 18.6 and his vs-opponent scoring is just 16.285714285714285 PPG in 7 games.

assistsOVER 6.560%MEDIUM

Garland’s season average is 6.8 APG, last 5 is 7.2, and he has 9 APG in 7 games vs this opponent. Assist variance is moderate with a 2.36 season std, so this is playable but not high-confidence.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He averages 2.4 rebounds on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, which is close enough to the 2.5 line for a slight lean up. The edge is small, so confidence stays modest.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

Garland averages 2.53 threes per game on the season and 3.5 over the last 5, with 3.2 at home. The recent surge supports an over lean, but the season baseline keeps confidence in check.

stealsOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He is at 0.9 steals per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, well above a 0.5 line. The recent defensive production is strong enough to support the over despite normal volatility.

prUNDER 20.566%MEDIUM

Points-rebounds is a combo prop with added variance, and Garland’s scoring profile is the main reason to expect a miss. His season points and rebounds combined profile does not create a strong cushion over 20.5, especially with his scoring trending below recent peak form.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS