AI Model:

GG Jackson▲

MEM · PF

PPG

11.6

RPG

4.4

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

16.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.0

11.6

16.6

RPG+0.4

4.4

4.8

APG+0.6

1.4

2.0

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG0.0

0.8

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 24 pts

DAL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DAL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 11 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 12 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 20 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 14 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 20 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 16 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5

68%

REB

OVER 4.5

60%

AST

OVER 1.5

56%

3PM

OVER 1

54%

BLK

OVER 0.5

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2

61%

PRA

OVER 17.5

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.0

15.0

RPG

5.7

6.0

APG

1.9

2.3

vs CHA (H2H)5 games

PPG

12.6

RPG

2.6

APG

0.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	2	11	64%	+7.5%	low
Jerami Grant	3	10	67%	+6.0%	medium
Julius Randle	3	9	50%	-5.2%	medium
Desmond Bane	2	8	36%

GG Jackson’s expanded role keeps his scoring ceiling alive

GG Jackson is trending up with season averages of 11.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 1.4 APG, but his last 5 and last 10 games have jumped to 16.6 PPG and 16.2 PPG with minutes up to 26.0 and 25.7. The biggest role boost comes from Jaren Jackson Jr. being out, which removes 19.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 30.3 MPG from Memphis’s rotation. Charlotte has a 112.43 defensive rating and the game pace projects at 100, but the Hornets’ listed defender data does not point to a strong individual stopper here, and the matchup does not add enough resistance to offset the usage gain.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.6(↑ from 11.6)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 4.4)

APG

2.0(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Charlotte’s opponent defense shows a 112.43 defensive rating and pace of 100, which is not an elite suppression spot. The provided key defender data does not create a clear shutdown matchup, so the main defensive note is that there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Hornets defenders.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
GG Jackson▼	Points	11.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	19	✓
GG Jackson▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	3	✗
GG Jackson▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
GG Jackson▼	3PM	1	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	10%	0	✗
GG Jackson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
GG Jackson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
GG Jackson▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
GG Jackson▼	PRA	17.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PA4UNDER34%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

PRA23OVER3%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

PTS16UNDER34%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM3UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x6/2030%▼

FTA4UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

AST2OVER1%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)6/2030%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

BLK1UNDER63%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER11%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

REB4UNDER5%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

GG Jackson

Points OVER 11.5MEDIUM

The strongest signal is the role increase from Jaren Jackson Jr. being out, which supports GG Jackson’s recent jump to 16.6 PPG over the last 5 and 16.2 over the last 10. His season mean is only 11.6, so the line is efficient, but the current usage bump makes the over the cleanest option among his props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Miles Bridges	2	7	6	75%	75%
Grant Williams	2	3	0	0%	0%
Brandon Miller	2	3	11	67%	83%
LaMelo Ball	2	2	6	40%	60%
Moussa Diabaté	2	2	4	100%	100%

pointsOVER 11.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.6, but recent production is 16.6 PPG over the last 5 and 16.2 over the last 10 with minutes near 26.0. Jaren Jackson Jr. being out adds clear usage, though the elevated recent scoring makes some regression risk present.

reboundsOVER 4.560%MEDIUM

He averages 4.4 RPG for the season and 5.9 RPG over the last 10, with home mean at 5.7 and away mean at 6.0 in the provided splits. The role increase supports this, but rebound variance keeps confidence moderate.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.44 APG and last 10 is 1.9 APG, with 1.9 APG at home and 2.3 away. The volume is still modest, so this is a thinner edge than points or rebounds.

threesOVER 154%MEDIUM

He averages 1.11 made threes per game on the season and 1.1 in the last 10, with 1.6 at home. The line sits right on his normal output, so the play is playable but not strong.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, with 1.4 at home. That gives him clear block upside relative to a low half-block line.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.42 and recent mean is 1.7, so he’s hovering near the threshold. This is a workable angle, but the variance is high.

turnoversOVER 261%MEDIUM

He averages 2.1 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.7 over the last 10, well above his season baseline of 2.0. With the expanded role, turnovers remain a live over candidate.

praOVER 17.558%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 17.4, while recent production has climbed materially through points and rebounds. Combo props carry extra variance, so confidence stays capped despite the role boost.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS