Memphis Grizzlies vs Charlotte Hornets — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

24-45 | L10: 1-9

CHA

Charlotte Hornets

36-34 | L10: 7-3

2026-03-21

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

MEM83%

17%CHA

MEM92-101CHA

Key Factors

*Grizzlies without Jaren Jackson Jr. (19.4 PPG) - out (Knee)
*Hornets without Liam McNeeley (4.1 PPG) - out ()
*Hornets has home court advantage
*Hornets has key positional matchup advantages
*Season series tied 4-7 between Hornets and Grizzlies

Key Matchup

Grizzlies has matchup advantages

CHA Advantages

+ Positional advantages

MEM Advantages

Key Defensive Matchups

MEM Players

GG Jackson

Miles Bridges2g · 7m+0.0%75% eFGlow

Grant Williams2g · 3m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Brandon Miller2g · 3m+0.0%83% eFGlow

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Grant Williams2g · 5m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Ryan Kalkbrenner2g · 3m+0.0%100% eFGlow

Charlotte enters at 36-34 and has won 7 of its last 10, while Memphis is 24-45 and just 1-9 over its last 10. The Hornets also have an extra rest edge with 2 days since their last game versus Memphis on a back-to-back, which adds pressure on the Grizzlies’ starters and raises late-game blowout risk.

Team Comparison

MEMCHA

Key Players

LaMelo is trending up with 22.2 PPG over his last 5, 20.2 PPG over his last 10, and 7.1 APG on the season. His prop profile is strong for assists, but the 25.6 MPG last 5 and 3.0 turnovers add some volatility; his 6.5 assist line depends on minutes holding steady.

ProjectedPTS: 12.5-19.1-25.7REB: 2-5-8AST: 4.2-6.6-9

Miller’s season scoring is 20.4 PPG, but his last 5 are down to 18.0 PPG and his last 10 are 18.4 PPG, so the recent form is slightly below his season level. His 20.5 points line sits just above his recent average, and the 12.5 assist line is not relevant here, so the cleaner angles are points unders unless you buy the home lift.

ProjectedPTS: 11.4-18-24.6REB: 2-5-8AST: 1.5-3.9-6.3

Bridges is below his season scoring at 16.8 PPG over his last 5 and 14.6 PPG over his last 10, while his season mark is 17.5 PPG. With Memphis on a back-to-back and Charlotte at home, the floor is workable, but the recent dip makes his higher point totals more fragile than his assist props.

ProjectedPTS: 9.4-16-22.6REB: 2.6-5.6-8.6AST: 0.5-2.9-5.3

Diabaté’s scoring has fallen to 4.8 PPG over his last 5 versus 8.0 PPG on the season, while rebounds remain steadier at 8.4 over the last 5 and 8.7 on the season. His rebound line is the more stable angle, and his recent points are far below his season baseline, making the points under attractive if the market is inflated.

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
LaMelo Ball▼ CHA	Assists	6.5fanduel	OVER	61%MEDIUM	30%	+13.6%	4	✗
Miles Bridges▼ CHA	Assists	3.5fanduel	OVER	54%MEDIUM	30%	+11.0%	1	✗
Moussa Diabaté▼ CHA	Points	8.5Proj	UNDER	73%HIGH	80%	+22.9%	11	✗
Brandon Miller▼ CHA	Points	20.5draftkings	UNDER	67%HIGH	60%	+16.2%	22	✗
Ty Jerome▼ MEM	Points	20.5draftkings	UNDER	67%HIGH	50%	+16.2%	—	—

Model Comparison

2 models · 12 props compared

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Props Shown

12 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Moussa Diabaté

Points UNDER 8.5HIGH

His season average is 8.0 PPG, but his last 5 are only 4.8 PPG and the line is still 8.5. The under is backed by a 22.9% edge and 45.43 EV per 100.

Brandon Miller

Points UNDER 20.5HIGH

Miller’s last 5 are 18.0 PPG and his last 10 are 18.4 PPG, both below the 20.5 line. The under shows a 16.2% edge and 32.08 EV per 100.

LaMelo Ball

Assists OVER 6.5MEDIUM

LaMelo averages 7.1 APG on the season and 7.56 APG at home, so 6.5 is below his typical output. The play is supported by a 13.6% edge and 28.6 EV per 100, though his minutes have been lighter recently.

Parlay of the Game

Moussa Diabaté — Points UNDER 8.5Leg 1

Brandon Miller — Points UNDER 20.5Leg 2

LaMelo Ball — Assists OVER 6.5Leg 3

The two unders align with recent scoring trends that sit below the listed lines, while LaMelo’s assist over is supported by his season and home assist rates. This combines a couple of lower-variance under angles with one high-usage creator prop from the same game.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Jaren Jackson Jr. is Out for Memphis, which is the main absence in the data and may shift usage toward Memphis starters. Liam McNeeley is Out for Charlotte, but his 4.1 PPG and 12.2 MPG make the impact smaller.