AI Model:

Jaylen Wells▼

MEM · SF

PPG

12.7

RPG

3.3

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.7

12.7

13.4

RPG-0.7

3.3

2.6

APG-1.0

1.6

0.6

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 18 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 23 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 6 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

73%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.7

16.0

RPG

2.2

2.8

APG

1.7

1.3

vs CHA (H2H)3 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

3.3

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	25	53%	-5.6%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	21	58%	+3.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	21	63%	+11.9%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	20	45%

Wells has a path to modest scoring upside, but rebounds look like the cleaner angle

Jaylen Wells is averaging 12.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 1.6 APG on 26.5 MPG this season, with his last 10 games bumping to 15.3 PPG and 2.5 FG3M. That said, his recent trend is down, and his last 5 shows just 13.4 PPG with 24.4 MPG, so the scoring surge is not fully stable. Memphis is on a back-to-back, which adds some volatility, but Jaren Jackson Jr. being out should help absorb usage and minutes for Wells. Charlotte’s defense is not elite by the numbers, yet Wells has averaged only 7.33 PPG in 3 games vs this opponent, so the head-to-head history keeps the scoring side cautious.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↑ from 12.7)

RPG

2.6(↓ from 3.3)

APG

0.6(↓ from 1.6)

3PM

2.0(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Charlotte’s opponent defense data shows a 112.43 defensive rating and 100 pace, with scoring suppression at -0.666 and three suppression at -0.035. No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed defenders, so the matchup read has to lean on team-level defense and Wells’ 3-game history of 7.33 PPG against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaylen Wells▼	Points	12.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	9	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	73%HIGH	1/2	60%	0	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	1	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	3	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA18.5UNDER37%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

PTS12.5OVER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

AST1.5UNDER33%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%▼

STL1UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PA5UNDER26%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

REB3UNDER44%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x3/2015%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTA2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

P+R16UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

3PM2UNDER34%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Jaylen Wells

Rebounds OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value in the dataset, with a 19.3% edge at Bovada and 18.9% at DraftKings plus an implied over probability of 64.7%. His season average is 3.3 RPG, so the 2.5 line gives a solid cushion even with normal game-to-game variance.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
LaMelo Ball	2	7	8	33%	44%
Brandon Miller	2	3	6	100%	150%
Miles Bridges	2	2	2	100%	100%
Josh Green	2	2	0	0%	0%
Moussa Diabaté	2	1	3	100%	100%

pointsOVER 12.555%MEDIUM

Season mean is 12.82 and the line is 12.5, so the edge is small; his last 10 at 15.3 PPG supports a modest over lean. Still, his last 5 at 13.4 and 7.33 PPG in 3 games vs this opponent limit confidence.

reboundsOVER 2.573%HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board: best_edge is 0.189 with our_prob_over at 0.647 and ev_over at 41.1. His season mean is 3.3 RPG and the value model clearly favors the over at 2.5.

assistsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.64 APG on the season, but the last 5 has dropped to 0.6 APG and his recent role has not produced steady playmaking. With a 1.5 line and no strong assist trend, the under is slightly preferable.

threesOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.91 made threes on the season and 2.7 over the last 5, with 2.5 over the last 10 as well. Even with some regression risk, the volume is enough to support the over at 1.5.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is reasonable. The standard deviation is high, so this stays a moderate-confidence play only.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS