Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | 3 | 24 | 48% | -3.2% | medium |
| Scottie Barnes | 4 | 21 | 73% | +23.1% | medium |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 3 | 18 | 47% | +1.3% | medium |
| Dominick Barlow | 3 | 13 | 33% |
Miles Bridges enters with a clear downtrend: his season averages are 17.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 3.3 APG, but his last 10 games have dipped to 14.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 2.6 APG. He has been much better away from home than at home, though tonight is in Charlotte where his home scoring is only 11.2 PPG across 9 games. The best value on the board is his assists, with multiple books showing a 2.5 line and pre-calculated positive edge on the OVER, while points are priced more like an UNDER at 15.5. Jaren Jackson Jr. being out is a plus for the Hornets offense environment, but Bridges’ own recent form still points to a cautious projection on scoring.
The opponent is allowing a 118.62 defensive rating, but its scoring suppression is listed at 0.751 and three-point suppression at 0.36. Key defender data is available for GG Jackson, who has 20.7 minutes and 0.3125 FG%, so there is no specific defender matchup data beyond that.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miles Bridges▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Miles Bridges▼ | Points | 15.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 13 | ✓ |
Miles Bridges▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 4 | ✓ |
Miles Bridges▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Miles Bridges▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Miles Bridges▼ | P+R | 21.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 17 | ✓ |
Miles Bridges▼ | P+A | 18.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 14 | ✗ |
This is the clearest value on the board, with draftkings showing a 13.7% edge and our_prob_over at 0.632. Bridges’ season average is 3.31 APG, and even with recent cooling, the line is still below his baseline production.
| medium |
| Pascal Siakam | 2 | 12 | 82% | +26.6% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GG Jackson | 2 | 6 | 4 | 29% | 29% |
| Jock Landale | 1 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Tyler Burton | 1 | 2 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
| Cam Spencer | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Taylor Hendricks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
Value data shows a 13.7% edge at DraftKings with our_prob_over at 0.632. His season mean is 3.31 APG and his away mean is 3.23 APG, both above this line, and teammate absences can help keep his playmaking involved.
His season mean is 17.53 PPG, but the recent trend is down to 14.6 PPG over the last 10 and 14.4 PPG over the last 20. The available value data also favors the UNDER at 15.5 with a positive edge.
Bridges is at 5.83 RPG for the season but only 4.9 RPG over the last 10, and his home rebound average is 4.8. The line sits above his recent production, making the UNDER the safer side.
He averages 2.06 threes per game for the season and 1.6 over the last 10, so this is a volume-based playable line. Confidence stays modest because recent form has cooled and the prop is relatively volatile.
His season average for stocks is 1.08 and the last 10 are 1.1, both below 1.5. With steals and blocks both modest, this needs an outlier game to clear consistently.
His season points plus rebounds profile is 23.33, but the recent scoring and rebounding decline makes 21.5 less comfortable than season-level averages suggest. Combo props are higher variance, so the UNDER is the conservative play.
He averages 3.31 APG and has multiple books with a 2.5 assist line showing strong OVER value, which supports a higher PA outcome. The projection is still limited by his recent assist dip, so confidence is only moderate.