AI Model:

Ty Jerome▼

MEM · PG

PPG

19.9

RPG

2.9

APG

5.8

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

19.9

21.4

RPG+0.1

2.9

3.0

APG+1.0

5.8

6.8

SPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 20 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

GSW

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

DEN

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs DEN: 19 pts

MIA

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MIA: 17 pts

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 26 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 21 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 16 pts

Over 20

Under 20

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20

58%

AST

OVER 5.5

56%

REB

OVER 3

52%

3PM

OVER 2.5

54%

STL

OVER 0.5

51%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

OVER 1.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 29.5

60%

P+A

OVER 25.5

55%

UNDER 0.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.9

19.5

RPG

3.2

2.2

APG

6.1

4.7

vs CHA (H2H)8 games

PPG

7.4

RPG

2.1

APG

3.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	12	70%	+12.6%	medium
Christian Braun	2	8	33%	-14.1%	low
Sam Hauser	1	5	0%	-47.4%	low
Gui Santos	2	4	0%

Ty Jerome’s expanded role keeps the production floor high

Ty Jerome is coming in with a strong season line of 19.9 PPG, 5.8 APG, and 2.9 RPG in 22.6 MPG, and the absence of Jaren Jackson Jr. should help keep usage concentrated. His last 5 games have ticked up to 21.4 PPG and 6.8 APG with 25.0 MPG, though the broader last-10 and last-20 samples are closer to his season level, so some regression from the hot stretch is possible. Charlotte’s opponent profile is workable, but the matchup data does not show a clear defensive stopper and the game environment is a second-leg road back-to-back for Memphis, which adds some risk to ceiling. Overall, the strongest angle is his scoring and assist volume, with the better lean being against inflated combo lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↑ from 19.9)

APG

6.8(↑ from 5.8)

RPG

3.0(→ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

Charlotte’s opponent defense data shows a 112.43 defensive rating, pace of 100, and no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. The season vs-opponent sample is notably weaker at 7.375 PPG, 2.125 RPG, and 3.5 APG across 8 games, which is the main reason not to push aggressive overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Ty Jerome▼	Points	20	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Ty Jerome▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Ty Jerome▼	Rebounds	3	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Ty Jerome▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Ty Jerome▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Ty Jerome▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%
Ty Jerome▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%
Ty Jerome▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Ty Jerome▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Ty Jerome▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1560%▼

PTS19UNDER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼

AST7UNDER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x3/1520%▼

PRA27OVER11%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PM3UNDER21%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x3/1520%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA7UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x4/1527%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%▼

REB2OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

STL1UNDER20%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)4/1527%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x7/1547%▼

FTA3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x6/1540%▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼

Featured Pick

Ty Jerome

Assist OVER 5.5MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 APG on the season, 6.8 APG in the last 5, and 6.1 APG at home, while Jaren Jackson Jr. being out should help keep the ball in his hands. This is a cleaner angle than scoring because the line is still below both his season and recent production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 2058%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.15 PPG and last-10 is 19.8, so a 20.0 line is right on the number. The last-5 bump to 21.4 is real, but the broader sample is flatter and Memphis is on a back-to-back.

assistsOVER 5.556%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 APG on the season and 6.8 APG over the last 5, with 6.1 APG in home games. Jaren Jackson Jr. being out should help maintain his playmaking load.

reboundsOVER 352%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.9 RPG and recent mean is 3.2, with a home split of 3.2 RPG. This is a thin edge, but the projected line is modest.

threesOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.85 made threes per game on the season and 3.0 over the last 5. His three-point volume stays steady at 2.8 to 3.2 range in the rolling samples.

stealsOVER 0.551%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 SPG on the season and 0.9 across the last 10 and last 20. The floor is supported, but steals are volatile so confidence stays modest.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.31 stocks and recent mean is 1.4, both below 1.5. With only 0.2 BPG and a sub-1.0 steals profile in recent games, the under is safer.

turnoversOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He has 2.0 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.6 over the last 10, with a 1.9 home split. The ball-handling load is high enough to expect at least a couple miscues.

praUNDER 29.560%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 28.6 PRA and the last-10 is 28.9, so a 29.5 line sits just above his core production. Combo props are higher variance, and this spot is close enough to prefer the under.

paOVER 25.555%MEDIUM

He combines 19.9 PPG and 5.8 APG for 25.7 PA on the season, and his last-5 jumps to 28.2. The line is aligned with his baseline role, though back-to-back risk limits confidence.

double_doubleUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He has strong points and assists, but rebounds are only 2.9 per game on the season. That makes a double-double possible but not likely enough to side with the over.

timelineUNDER 20 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Ty Jerome’s expanded role keeps the production floor high

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 20 PTS