AI Model:

LaMelo Ball▲

CHA · PG

PPG

19.6

RPG

4.8

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

22.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.6

19.6

22.2

RPG+0.4

4.8

5.2

APG-1.3

7.1

5.8

SPG+0.6

1.2

1.8

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

POR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs POR: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 15 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 22 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs SAC: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 17 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 30 pts

ORL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs ORL: 20 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

61%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

54%

OVER 2.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 31.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 26.5

59%

UNDER 0.5

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.8

21.3

RPG

4.8

5.0

APG

6.8

5.6

vs MEM (H2H)7 games

PPG

18.6

RPG

4.4

APG

6.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Josh Hart	3	15	80%	+19.5%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	13	68%	+14.0%	medium
Davion Mitchell	3	11	83%	+26.2%	medium
Ben Sheppard	4	11	63%

LaMelo’s playmaking looks steadier, but points face a tougher ceiling

LaMelo Ball is trending up overall, with a season line of 19.6 PPG, 7.1 APG and 4.8 RPG, and his last 10 games have held near that level at 20.2 PPG and 6.1 APG. His scoring has been more volatile than his passing, and the current matchup environment leans to controlled efficiency rather than a pure scoring spike, especially with Memphis on a back-to-back. The absence of Jaren Jackson Jr. is a plus for Charlotte’s offense, but the data still points to stronger value on his assists and a more cautious stance on points.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.2(↑ from 19.6)

APG

5.8(↓ from 7.1)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 4.8)

Stocks

2.2(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data was provided. Memphis is allowing a 118.62 defensive rating with a pace of 100, and Jaren Jackson Jr. being out is a notable opponent absence that can help Charlotte’s offense overall.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
LaMelo Ball▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	50%	29	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	4	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	7	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	3	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	1	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	4	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	PRA	31.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	36	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	P+A	26.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	33	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

STL0.5OVER20%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x16/2080%+16.0% edge▼

PTS19.5UNDER50%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

REB4.5UNDER21%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

AST6.5UNDER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

3PM4.5UNDER10%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

3PA12UNDER31%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

PRA31.5UNDER18%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

P+A27.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

FTM1.5UNDER16%gbtAvoid (6/20)10/2050%▼

R+A11.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER18%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

LaMelo Ball

Points UNDER 19.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board, with a 16.2% edge and our model giving the under a 66.7% probability. His season scoring sits at 19.6 PPG, and the recent 22.2 PPG run is above baseline, which raises regression risk rather than making the over more attractive.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Wells	2	9	7	38%	44%
John Konchar	1	2	0	0%	0%
GG Jackson	2	1	2	50%	50%
DeJon Jarreau	1	1	0	0%	0%
Cam Spencer	2	1	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 19.578%HIGH

The value data shows a best side of UNDER at 19.5 with a 16.2% edge and our projected under probability at 66.7%. His season mean is 19.58, while the last 5 at 22.2 is above that and could regress, especially with Memphis on a back-to-back.

assistsOVER 6.561%MEDIUM

He averages 7.1 APG on the season and 6.1 over the last 10, with 7.56 APG at home. The value props show a positive edge on the over at 6.5 across multiple books, making this the clearest assist angle.

reboundsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

LaMelo is at 4.8 RPG for the season and 5.1 over his last 10, so the median outcome sits just above this number. The edge is smaller than the assists play, but the recent form supports the over.

threesUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

His season average of 3.54 made threes and last 5 at 3.8 are both near the line, but the projection is not strong enough to justify an over. The value board also leans under at 3.5 on several books.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 10. That gives the over on 0.5 a solid floor, even if the stat can be noisy.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10. The line is well above his typical production, so the under is the safer side.

stocksOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.42, but his last 5 is 2.2 and last 10 is 2.0. The recent defensive production supports a modest over lean, though variance keeps confidence in check.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He has been at 2.5 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.0 over the last 5, which puts pressure on the over. With his usage and playmaking load, this is a realistic upside-but-risky number.

praUNDER 31.560%MEDIUM

A simple projection from season averages lands near 31.5, but combo props are higher variance and the season-based outlook does not strongly favor an over. Given the caution on PRA-type markets, the under is the sharper lean.

paUNDER 26.559%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is around 26.7 using 19.6 PPG and 7.1 APG, so this line is right on the edge. Because his recent assists are down to 6.1 and combo props are volatile, the under is preferred.

double_doubleUNDER 0.567%MEDIUM

He is capable of near-double-digit assist or rebound outputs, but the season profile does not point to frequent double-doubles. The line requires a strong two-category game, and the under is the more conservative play.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS