AI Model:

Alex Sarr▼

WAS · C

PPG

16.6

RPG

7.4

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

11.4

Last 10 GamesREB

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.2

16.6

11.4

RPG-3.0

7.4

4.4

APG-1.8

2.6

0.8

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG+0.2

2.0

2.2

OVER 5.5 REB

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

5.5

MIL

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs MIL: 17 reb

LAL

2026-01-30

2026-01-30 vs LAL: 6 reb

NYK

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs NYK: 9 reb

DET

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs DET: 6 reb

MIA

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs MIA: 12 reb

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 4 reb

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 6 reb

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 4 reb

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 5 reb

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 3 reb

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 2.5

64%

3PM

UNDER 1.5BETONLINEAG

67%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

58%

OVER 1.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 26.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.8

14.9

RPG

8.1

5.8

APG

3.0

1.2

vs OKC (H2H)2 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

7.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Duren	3	15	47%	-1.7%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	3	15	100%	+51.6%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	14	86%	+24.3%	medium
Neemias Queta	2	14	92%

Sarr’s minutes and usage point to rebounds value, but scoring is volatile

Alex Sarr comes in with a season line of 16.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 2.6 APG, but his recent form is softer at 11.4 PPG over the last 5 and 12.4 PPG over the last 10. The biggest supporting angle is role: teammate absences from Kyshawn George (14.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 5.0 RPG) and Cam Whitmore (9.2 PPG) should keep Sarr involved, especially at home where he averages 16.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG and 3.0 APG. The matchup is not a clean scoring boost, as Oklahoma City has a 107.49 defensive rating and his two games vs this opponent are just 12.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.0 APG, so the safer angle is boards rather than points.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.4(↓ from 16.6)

RPG

4.4(↓ from 7.4)

APG

0.8(↓ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

Key defender matchup data is limited, but no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Oklahoma City players. The Thunder are allowing a 107.49 defensive rating and Sarr’s two-game sample vs this opponent is modest at 12.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.0 APG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Alex Sarr▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	60%	5	✗
Alex Sarr▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	14	✗
Alex Sarr▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	8	✗
Alex Sarr▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✗
Alex Sarr▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✗
Alex Sarr▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	3	✓
Alex Sarr▼	PRA	26.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	27	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25.5UNDER42%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PTS15UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

AST2OVER25%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA3UNDER29%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 5x9/2045%▼

P+A17UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER21%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM1.5UNDER20%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6UNDER26%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

BLK1UNDER36%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER14%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Alex Sarr

Rebounds OVER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle in the profile: Sarr averages 7.4 RPG on the season and 8.1 RPG at home, both comfortably above the 5.5 line. The value sheet agrees, with a 17.2% edge at DraftKings, making rebounds the strongest play despite his recent dip in scoring.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Isaiah Hartenstein	1	5	4	40%	40%
Jaylin Williams	1	2	0	0%	0%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	1	1	9	57%	57%
Ajay Mitchell	2	1	0	0%	0%
Luguentz Dort	1	1	0	0%	0%

reboundsOVER 5.578%HIGH

His season average is 7.4 RPG and his home split is 8.1 RPG, both above 5.5. Value data also supports the over at 5.5 with a 17.2% edge at DraftKings.

pointsUNDER 12.560%MEDIUM

His recent production is down to 11.4 PPG in the last 5 and 12.4 PPG in the last 10, which is below the 12.5 line. He also averaged only 12.0 PPG in two games vs this opponent.

assistsUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

Sarr averages 2.6 APG for the season, but only 0.8 APG over the last 5 and 1.0 APG in two games vs this opponent. The assist profile is volatile enough that the under is the safer side.

threesUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages just 1.04 threes per game on the season and the only listed book line is 1.5. His under is supported by the provided value data, which gives the under a positive edge.

stocksOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

Sarr averages 2.87 stocks on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, so he has clear defensive event volume. The variance is meaningful, so confidence stays moderate.

turnoversOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.8 turnovers on the season and 1.9 away, with recent games showing several 1-3 turnover outings. If minutes hold near his normal workload, the over is playable.

praUNDER 26.555%MEDIUM

His recent scoring and assist trend is down, and combo props carry extra variance. With the last 5 at 11.4/4.4/0.8, the under is the conservative lean.

timelineOVER 5.5 REB