Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards — Predictions & Player Props

AI Model:

OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

55-15 | L10: 10-0

WAS

Washington Wizards

16-53 | L10: 0-10

2026-03-21

ML Game Intelligence

HIGH

OKC95%

5%WAS

OKC103-82WAS

Key Factors

*Wizards without Kyshawn George (14.7 PPG) - out (Elbow)
*Wizards without Tre Johnson (12.2 PPG) - questionable (Foot)
*Thunder outscores opponents by +15.7 PPG vs Wizards's -10.3
*Wizards without Will Riley (8.8 PPG) - questionable ()
*Wizards without Cam Whitmore (9.2 PPG) - out (Shoulder)

Key Matchup

Thunder has matchup advantages

OKC Advantages

+ Positional advantages
+ Better roster depth

Key Defensive Matchups

OKC Players

Isaiah Hartenstein

Alex Sarr1g · 5m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Marvin Bagley III1g · 2m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Kyshawn George1g · 1m+0.0%0% eFGlow

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Bilal Coulibaly1g · 3m+0.0%33% eFGlow

Tre Johnson1g · 2m+0.0%150% eFGlow

Oklahoma City enters on a 10-game winning streak and is 10-0 over its last 10, while Washington has dropped 10 straight and is 16-53 overall. The rest edge also tilts to OKC with 3 days since its last game vs Washington's 2, but the bigger story is a lopsided form gap and multiple Wizards absences forcing heavier minutes onto the remaining starters.

Team Comparison

OKCWAS

Key Players

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼

He is still producing at an elite level with 31.5 PPG and 6.6 APG on the season, but his last 5 of 30.0 PPG is slightly below his season norm. Washington's defense profile shows a 123.94 defensive rating and 1.971 scoring suppression, and his matchup data includes 31.11111111111111 PPG, 5.777777777777778 RPG, and 6.222222222222222 APG across 9 games versus this opponent.

ProjectedPTS: 20.9-27.5-34.1REB: 1.8-4.8-7.8AST: 4.9-7.3-9.7

Holmgren's season line is 17.2 PPG and 9.0 RPG, but his last 5 jumped to 18.8 PPG while rebounds have been volatile. He has strong home rebounding numbers at 10.03 RPG, and with Washington allowing a 123.94 defensive rating, his scoring and boards remain viable even though his recent minutes have dipped to 30.3.

ProjectedPTS: 9.3-15.9-22.5REB: 5.6-8.6-11.6AST: 0-1.5-3.9

Mitchell is steady at 14.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 3.6 APG, with last 5 production of 15.2 PPG and 3.4 APG. His line value is strongest on points because the season average is already close to the market area, but the recent standard deviation on points is 4.96, so this is not a low-variance spot.

ProjectedPTS: 6.4-13-19.6REB: 0.7-3.7-6.7AST: 1.1-3.5-5.9

Prop Picks

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Edge	Actual	Result
Alex Sarr▼ WAS	Points	14.5draftkings	UNDER	82%HIGH	60%	+25.1%	14	✓
Tre Johnson▼ WAS	Points	16.5stake	UNDER	80%HIGH	80%	+3.3%	—	—
Bilal Coulibaly▼ WAS	Rebounds	3.5draftkings	OVER	71%MEDIUM	80%	+11.0%	4	✓
Chet Holmgren▼ OKC	Rebounds	8.5betonlineag	OVER	68%MEDIUM	80%	+4.5%	10	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼ OKC	Points	28.5draftkings	OVER	70%MEDIUM	50%	+35.5%	40	✓

Model Comparison

2 models · 11 props compared

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Props Shown

11 total on slate

Models

1 game view

Unanimous

Full agreement across submitted picks

Featured Picks

Alex Sarr

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

Season scoring is 16.6 PPG, but the last 5 dropped to 11.4 and his minutes fell to 20.8. That combination plus a 25.1% edge at DraftKings makes the under the cleanest value on the slate.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Points OVER 28.5HIGH

He averages 31.5 PPG on the season and 31.11111111111111 PPG in 9 games against Washington. The 28.5 line is below both baselines, and the model edge is 35.5% with 66.71 EV per 100.

Bilal Coulibaly

Rebounds OVER 3.5MEDIUM

His rebound profile is above the line at 4.43 season and 4.7 over the last 5, with a 30.6 MPG recent workload. The DraftKings line shows an 11.0% edge and his recent role supports the volume.

Parlay of the Game

Alex Sarr — Points UNDER 14.5Leg 1

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Points OVER 28.5Leg 2

Bilal Coulibaly — Rebounds OVER 3.5Leg 3

The first leg leans on Sarr's recent scoring drop, the second on SGA's season and matchup dominance, and the third on Coulibaly's rebounding uptick. These legs combine a Washington under with two OKC/WAS value spots without forcing same-player correlation.

Injury & Lineup Notes

Tre Johnson and Will Riley are both listed as Questionable; Johnson is Questionable with Injury/Illness-RightFoot, and Riley is Questionable with Injury/Illness-RightAdductor. Cam Whitmore and Kyshawn George are Out for Washington, and Branden Carlson is Out for Oklahoma City.