AI Model:

Chet Holmgren▼

OKC · PF

PPG

17.2

RPG

9.0

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

18.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.6

17.2

18.8

RPG-1.0

9.0

8.0

APG-0.5

1.7

1.2

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG-1.3

1.9

0.6

OVER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

CLE

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs CLE: 17 pts

TOR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs TOR: 7 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 19 pts

CHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs CHI: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 28 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 21 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BKN: 11 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

REB

OVER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

BLK

OVER 1.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

61%

PRA

OVER 26.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.2

15.2

RPG

12.2

7.4

APG

1.9

1.8

vs WAS (H2H)2 games

PPG

28.0

RPG

7.0

APG

2.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mark Williams	4	18	45%	-9.8%	medium
Alperen Sengun	3	17	42%	-13.2%	medium
Harrison Barnes	4	16	44%	-11.6%	medium
Bam Adebayo	2	14	59%

Holmgren’s scoring has the cleanest edge, but boards stay tricky

Chet Holmgren is averaging 17.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 1.7 APG on the season, with recent scoring holding near that level at 18.8 PPG over the last 5. His last 10 show more rebound support at 10.5 RPG, but the overall trend is down and his last 20 scoring average dips to 15.7 PPG, so the recent scoring spike should be treated cautiously. The matchup is friendly on paper, with Washington allowing a 123.94 defensive rating and OKC’s key defender data showing no specific defender matchup data beyond Bilal Coulibaly’s limited 2.4 minutes. Value data strongly favors Holmgren’s points over at multiple books, while rebounds and threes look much less compelling.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.8(↑ from 17.2)

RPG

8.0(↓ from 9.0)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.7)

Stocks

1.4(↓ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

Washington’s defensive rating of 123.94 is a favorable environment for scoring and overall production. For specific defender data, there is no specific defender matchup data beyond Bilal Coulibaly’s limited 2.4 minutes, so the matchup edge is driven more by the team defense than a single matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Chet Holmgren▼	Points	15.5	OVER	84%HIGH	2/2	50%	18	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Rebounds	8.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	10	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Chet Holmgren▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Chet Holmgren▼	PRA	26.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	28	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

PTS15.5UNDER53%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

AST2UNDER51%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 5x5/2025%▼

FTA4.5UNDER28%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

PRA27.5UNDER47%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

FTM3.5UNDER33%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%▼

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

BLK1.5UNDER41%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER45%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)4/2020%+9.8% edge▼

3PA3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

REB8.5UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%▼

Featured Pick

Chet Holmgren

Points OVER 15.5HIGH

This is the strongest combination of form, season baseline, and value. Holmgren averages 17.2 PPG, the last 5 are 18.8 PPG, and the value data shows a 35.9% edge on the 15.5 line with an over probability of 86.4%.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsOVER 15.584%HIGH

He is averaging 17.2 PPG on the season and the value data shows a 35.9% edge on the 15.5 line with our projected over probability at 86.4%. Washington’s 123.94 defensive rating adds support, and his recent 18.8 PPG over the last 5 is above the line.

reboundsOVER 8.556%MEDIUM

Holmgren’s season rebound average is 9.0 RPG and his home mean is 10.03, which fits the 8.5 line. But the edge is only about 4.3% and his last 5 rebounds are 8.0, so confidence should stay modest.

assistsOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.7 APG on the season and 1.76 at home, making the 1.5 line reachable. That said, this is a low-volume category with a 1.05 season standard deviation, so the projection is fairly fragile.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

Holmgren averages 1.23 threes per game, while his recent mean is 1.1 and the provided value data shows negative edge on the over. With only 1.0 three per game away and 0.8 at home, the under is the cleaner side.

blocksOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 blocks per game on the season, well above the 1.5 line. Recent block rates are lower at 0.6 over the last 5, but the season baseline still supports an over lean.

stocksUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.42 and the last 20 sits at 2.1, both slightly under this projected 2.5 mark. Given the relatively high variance in stocks and the recent dip to 1.4 over the last 5, the under is the safer call.

praOVER 26.555%MEDIUM

Season averages of 17.2 points and 9.0 rebounds already get him to 26.2 PRA before assists are added. The combo line is close, but combo props carry extra variance, so confidence stays only medium.

timelineOVER 15.5 PTS