AI Model:

Bub Carrington▲

WAS · PG

PPG

9.9

RPG

3.7

APG

4.6

L5 PPG

11.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.7

9.9

11.6

RPG-0.1

3.7

3.6

APG-0.6

4.6

4.0

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 11 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 7 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 9 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 12 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 12 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 4 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 30 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 10 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5STAKE

62%

REB

OVER 3.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

71%

3PM

OVER 1.5

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

OVER 1.5

63%

P+R

OVER 13.5STAKE

57%

P+A

UNDER 14.5STAKE

60%

R+A

UNDER 7.5STAKE

59%

UNDER 0.5

78%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.2

8.2

RPG

3.3

3.8

APG

3.5

5.2

vs OKC (H2H)3 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

4.3

APG

3.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tyrese Maxey	4	15	72%	+19.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	14	71%	+22.2%	low
Reed Sheppard	2	11	93%	+29.3%	low
T.J. McConnell	3	10	100%

Carrington’s role is stable, but the scoring environment is still capped

Bub Carrington’s season line sits at 9.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 27.4 MPG, and his recent form is modestly stronger with 11.6 PPG over the last 5 games. The biggest boost to his outlook is the teammate absences, with Kyshawn George (14.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 5 RPG) and Cam Whitmore (9.2 PPG) both out, which should support his usage and ball-handling. Still, his head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 7.3 PPG, and the opponent defense context points to some scoring suppression. Given the season baseline and variance, his assists and combo angles look more stable than an aggressive points over.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.6(↑ from 9.9)

APG

4.0(→ from 4.6)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

Key Matchup

The key matchup data available is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Thunder defenders. Oklahoma City allows a defensive environment with a 107.49 def rating and -1.801 scoring suppression, which leans slightly against efficient scoring outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Bub Carrington▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	19	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Bub Carrington▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%	3	✗
Bub Carrington▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Bub Carrington▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Bub Carrington▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	90%	0	✓
Bub Carrington▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Bub Carrington▼	P+R	13.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	22	✓
Bub Carrington▼	P+A	14.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	22	✗
Bub Carrington▼	R+A	7.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	6	✓
Bub Carrington▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA19.5UNDER14%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB3UNDER55%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 9x5/2025%▼

3PM2UNDER18%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

PTS11.5OVER7%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

FTM1UNDER50%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

P+R14.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

AST4.5OVER19%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTA1UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x7/2035%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Bub Carrington

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season assist average is 4.56 and his recent mean is 4.1, both comfortably above the line. With Kyshawn George out, Carrington should keep a solid on-ball role and has the most stable path to clearing a prop.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ajay Mitchell	2	3	7	50%	63%
Cason Wallace	1	2	0	0%	0%
Alex Caruso	1	1	0	0%	0%
Aaron Wiggins	2	1	3	100%	150%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 10.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.93 points and his vs-opponent average is 7.33 PPG across 3 games, both below this line. The last 5 at 11.6 is only a short spike, and the matchup context includes scoring suppression.

reboundsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.66 rebounds for the season and 3.6 over the last 5, so this is a small edge over the 3.5 line. The added usage from teammate absences helps keep his minutes and floor intact.

assistsOVER 3.571%HIGH

Carrington’s season assist average is 4.56 and his recent mean is 4.1, both above 3.5. With Kyshawn George out, he should continue to handle enough creation to clear this more often than not.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.91 threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, so 1.5 is a reachable line. His 39.6% season three-point rate supports the over, though the recent variance is fairly high.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.6 and he has 0.5 over the last 10, which keeps this live at a 0.5 line. The floor is decent, but the recent 0.2 steals over the last 5 lowers the confidence.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 0.79 stocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, well below 1.5. That makes the over too ambitious unless he hits an outlier defensive game.

turnoversOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

His last-10 turnover average is 1.7 and last-20 is 1.9, indicating this is trending near the 2.0 threshold. With a bigger playmaking load, the turnover risk stays elevated.

prOVER 13.557%MEDIUM

He averages 13.59 points + rebounds on the season, essentially right at this number, and recent scoring has been better. The edge is slim, so this is more of a small lean than a strong play.

paUNDER 14.560%MEDIUM

His season points + assists average is 14.49, basically flat to the line, but the head-to-head scoring output has been weak at 7.33 PPG overall. With scoring suppression in the matchup, the under is the safer side.

raUNDER 7.559%MEDIUM

He averages 7.36 rebounds + assists on the season, which sits just under this line. Because the margin is tiny, it is a conservative under rather than a high-confidence fade.

double_doubleUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He does not profile as a strong double-double threat with season averages of 9.9 points and 3.7 rebounds. He would need an outlier rebounding or scoring game to get there.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS