AI Model:

Will Riley▲

WAS · PF

PPG

8.8

RPG

2.6

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

14.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.2

8.8

14.0

RPG+1.4

2.6

4.0

APG+0.3

1.7

2.0

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

HOU

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs HOU: 7 pts

ORL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs ORL: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs UTA: 13 pts

NOP

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs NOP: 19 pts

MIA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MIA: 22 pts

ORL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs ORL: 8 pts

BOS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BOS: 5 pts

GSW

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs GSW: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DET: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs DET: 15 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5BETMGM

86%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETONLINEAG

64%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

72%

OVER 1.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.4

15.6

RPG

2.5

4.7

APG

2.0

2.5

vs OKC (H2H)1 games

PPG

2.0

RPG

0.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Tristan da Silva	3	11	17%	-29.0%	medium
Jayson Tatum	1	7	64%	+11.4%	low
Kevin Huerter	3	6	20%	-25.7%	medium
Zach LaVine	2	6	17%

Minutes boost keeps Riley in play, but the board still leans under

Will Riley’s recent form is clearly up: he’s at 14.0 PPG over his last 5 and 15.0 PPG over his last 10, both well above his 8.8 season average, while his minutes have jumped from 20.1 season-long to 33.4 over the last 10. That said, the combination of a questionable injury tag and a matchup against a defense allowing a 107.49 rating makes his elevated scoring harder to trust at the current market. With teammate absences likely helping his role, rebounds and threes still have the cleanest paths, but the stronger historical edge is on the under side for the main scoring and board lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.0(↑ from 8.8)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 2.6)

APG

2.0(↑ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context shows a 107.49 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a 0.709 three suppression figure, which does not strongly help the scoring-over case.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Will Riley▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	9	✓
Will Riley▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	2/2	80%	1	✓
Will Riley▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
Will Riley▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Will Riley▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Will Riley▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS21.5UNDER19%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+26.7% edge▼

FTA3.5OVER5%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA30.5UNDER19%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x4/2020%+24.4% edge▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+A20OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x11/2055%▼

REB4.5UNDER31%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)5/2025%+17.0% edge▼

3PA5UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1.5UNDER1%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x9/2045%+15.6% edge▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

AST3.5OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

FTM3UNDER10%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Will Riley

Rebounds UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play on the slate from the data: his season rebound average is 2.58, his last 10 is 3.3, and the value feed shows a 30.7% edge on the under at betmgm. Even with extra minutes from teammate absences, the line still sits well above his typical production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	FG%	eFG%
Ousmane Dieng	1	1	0%	0%
Aaron Wiggins	1	1	0%	0%
Isaiah Joe	1	0	0%	0%
Chris Youngblood	1	0	0%	0%
Branden Carlson	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 8.83 PPG, and even with the recent spike to 15.0 over the last 10, the book line is still above his baseline. Recent scoring is elevated, but the questionable tag adds risk to sustaining 30+ minutes.

reboundsUNDER 4.586%HIGH

His season mean is 2.58 RPG and his last 10 is only 3.3 RPG, both well below 4.5. The value data also shows a strong under lean with a 30.7% edge at betmgm.

assistsUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.67 assists for the season and 2.1 over the last 10, but that still sits below 2.5. The recent bump is role-driven, yet the assist line remains a step too high relative to his normal output.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He’s at 0.97 threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, but the 1.5 line requires repeated multi-make nights. The recent trend is hotter, but the season baseline still points under.

stocksUNDER 1.572%HIGH

His season stocks average is 0.73 and his last 10 is 0.9, which is still short of a 1.5 threshold. With only 0.6 stocks over the last 5, the ceiling looks limited.

turnoversOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are 1.6 over the last 5 and 1.9 over the last 10, both near or above this range, and his season mark is already 1.6. With the current usage and minutes, turnovers remain live.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS