AI Model:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼

OKC · PG

PPG

31.5

RPG

4.5

APG

6.6

L5 PPG

30.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.5

31.5

30.0

RPG+0.7

4.5

5.2

APG+1.8

6.6

8.4

SPG+1.0

1.4

2.4

BPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

OVER 28.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

28.5

ORL

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs ORL: 20 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 36 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 30 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 26 pts

GSW

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs GSW: 27 pts

DEN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs DEN: 35 pts

BOS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BOS: 35 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 20 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 40 pts

BKN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BKN: 20 pts

Over 28.5

Under 28.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 28.5

88%

AST

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

61%

P+A

OVER 37.5STAKE

55%

P+R

OVER 36.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

30.7

30.9

RPG

4.9

4.0

APG

7.6

6.3

vs WAS (H2H)9 games

PPG

31.1

RPG

5.8

APG

6.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	4	19	35%	-25.2%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	15	57%	-8.5%	medium
Devin Vassell	3	14	60%	-15.2%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	12	35%

SGA’s scoring floor remains elite, but the strongest edge is the underdog-friendly assist and combo profile

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is producing 31.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 7.8 APG on the season, with his last 20 still at 30.8 PPG and 7.0 APG. His recent form has dipped a bit in points from his season average, but the matchup still projects well: Washington owns a 123.94 defensive rating and he has averaged 31.11 PPG, 5.78 RPG, and 6.22 APG in 9 games vs this opponent. With no specific defender matchup data, the main lean comes from volume and role rather than a one-on-one defensive edge, and his recent assists surge keeps the combo props live.

Stat Trends

PPG

30.0(↓ from 31.5)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 4.5)

APG

8.4(↑ from 6.6)

Stocks

3.4(↑ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so the key angle is Washington’s 123.94 defensive rating and 100 pace. He has also been strong against this opponent historically, averaging 31.11 PPG across 9 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Points	28.5	OVER	88%HIGH	2/2	50%	40	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	P+A	37.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	47	✓
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander▼	P+R	36.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	43	✓

ML Scout Analysis

AST6.5OVER17%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+13.5% edge▼

PRA41.5OVER3%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.087; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R34.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

P+A37UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS30.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+5.1% edge▼

3PM1.5UNDER30%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%+7.2% edge▼

R+A11.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

REB3.5UNDER5%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)OVER 3x12/2060%▼

STL1.5UNDER5%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Points OVER 28.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the card: his season average is 31.5 PPG, last 20 is 30.8, and the value data shows a very large edge on 28.5. Even with a slight recent point dip, the line is well below his normal production level.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bilal Coulibaly	1	3	2	33%	33%
Tre Johnson	1	2	3	100%	150%
Bub Carrington	1	1	1	0%	0%
Khris Middleton	1	1	0	0%	0%
CJ McCollum	1	1	5	100%	125%

pointsOVER 28.588%HIGH

His season mean is 31.5 PPG and his recent 20-game average is 30.8, both above 28.5. The value data also shows a strong edge on this line, making the over the clearest play despite mild recent point regression.

assistsOVER 6.558%MEDIUM

He is averaging 6.6 APG for the season and 7.8 APG over the last 10, with a 7.0 APG last-20 mark. The recent assist trend is strong enough to support the over, but the standard deviation of 2.57 keeps confidence moderate.

reboundsOVER 4.552%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.5 RPG and he’s at 4.6 RPG over the last 10, with a 4.94 home mean. This is a close call, but the slight upward recent trend and home split lean over.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.72 made threes on the season but only 1.4 over the last 10, and the provided value data does not support the over at this line. The under is safer with his recent long-range output slightly below expectation.

stocksOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.24 stocks on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, with 3.4 over the last 5. That recent defensive activity is strong enough to justify an over lean, though volatility keeps this from being a top-confidence play.

paOVER 37.555%MEDIUM

His season PPG plus APG profile and recent 7.8 APG pace make 37.5 a reachable number, especially in a matchup allowing offensive production. Combo props carry extra variance, so confidence stays modest.

prOVER 36.557%MEDIUM

He averages 31.5 points and 4.5 rebounds on the season, which gives this line a solid base. His scoring volume is the main driver, and the matchup context supports a modest over lean.

timelineOVER 28.5 PTS