AI Model:

Isaiah Hartenstein▼

OKC · C

PPG

9.7

RPG

9.2

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

3.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.5

9.7

3.2

RPG-1.8

9.2

7.4

APG+0.8

3.6

4.4

SPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

BPG+0.6

0.8

1.4

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

LAL

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs LAL: 10 pts

PHX

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs PHX: 8 pts

BKN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs BKN: 10 pts

CLE

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs CLE: 13 pts

TOR

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs TOR: 11 pts

DEN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DEN: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DAL: 7 pts

NYK

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs NYK: 0 pts

MIN

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIN: 0 pts

ORL

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs ORL: 0 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

UNDER 0

99%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 15.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.0

6.4

RPG

8.3

7.3

APG

5.0

2.7

vs WAS (H2H)15 games

PPG

8.1

RPG

8.0

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rudy Gobert	3	18	43%	-19.2%	medium
Luke Kornet	3	16	75%	+12.9%	medium
Deandre Ayton	3	15	57%	-5.0%	medium
Drew Eubanks	3	14	50%

Hartenstein’s scoring is suppressed, but rebounds and defensive stats remain in play

Isaiah Hartenstein’s recent form is clearly down offensively, with just 3.2 PPG over his last 5 and 6.8 PPG over his last 10, both below his 9.7 season average. His rebounding and assist rates are more stable, especially at home where he averages 9.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 5.0 APG, but his minutes have also dipped to 20.8 over the last 5 from 25.2 on the season. The matchup is favorable on paper with Washington allowing a 123.94 defensive rating, but his exact point props still look better for the under given the recent scoring drop and only 15.0 average points in the last 5 combined with limited shot volume.

Stat Trends

PPG

3.2(↓ from 9.7)

RPG

7.4(↓ from 9.2)

APG

4.4(↑ from 3.6)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

Washington’s defense has a 123.94 rating allowed and a pace of 100, which is workable for production. Key defender data is present, but no specific defender matchup data can be confidently isolated from the limited minutes listed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	9	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	20	✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	10	✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	3PM	0	UNDER	99%HIGH	—	100%	0	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	29	✗
Isaiah Hartenstein▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	19	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS7.5UNDER14%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

AST3.5OVER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x11/2055%+6.2% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.187▼

PRA18.5OVER24%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge shifted +0.158▼

R+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A11.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

REB8.5UNDER42%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R16OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Isaiah Hartenstein

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his scoring is well below his season norm at 3.2 PPG over the last 5 and 6.8 over the last 10. Even with a weak defensive opponent, his recent minutes and shot output point more toward a low-scoring game than a bounce-back.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	FG%	eFG%
Alex Sarr	1	5	0%	0%
Marvin Bagley III	1	2	0%	0%
Kyshawn George	1	1	0%	0%
Bilal Coulibaly	1	0	0%	0%
Tre Johnson	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.7, but the last 5 are just 3.2 and the last 10 are 6.8, both showing clear regression. With minutes down to 20.8 recently, the scoring floor is shaky even against Washington’s weak defense.

reboundsOVER 7.558%MEDIUM

He averages 9.2 RPG on the season and 9.41 RPG at home, which is above this number despite a softer recent 7.4 RPG stretch. The line is low enough that his rebound role still makes sense even with reduced recent minutes.

assistsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

Hartenstein’s season assist rate is 3.6 and his home average is 5.0 APG, so this line is reachable if he handles the ball from the elbow. The recent 4.4 APG over the last 5 supports the over, though the variance is high.

threesUNDER 099%HIGH

He averages 0.0 threes for the season, with 0.0 in every split provided. There is no 3-point volume to support an over.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 0.7 SPG away, which is right around this line. The recent 0.6 SPG is slightly softer, but the baseline still favors a coin-flip over.

blocksOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 BPG on the season and 1.1 BPG over the last 10, with 1.4 over the last 5. That gives him a solid path to at least one block even if the scoring remains muted.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.76 and recent marks are 1.9 over the last 10 and 2.0 over the last 5. The combination is usable, but variance is meaningful.

turnoversUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.6 turnovers over the last 20, but just 1.0 over the last 10 and 0.6 over the last 5. With reduced recent usage, the under is the cleaner side.

prUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

His points have fallen sharply, and while rebounds are steadier, the combined profile still relies on scoring contribution. The recent downtrend makes 15.5 a tougher number to clear.

paUNDER 10.554%MEDIUM

He is close to this number by season averages, but the low scoring stretch weakens the profile. The assist upside helps, but not enough to create strong over conviction.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS